Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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A new Invest - 92L - located at 11.6N 26.5W at 07/00Z in the far eastern Atlantic has some potential for eventual slow development. Currently the system has a central pressure estimated at 1009MB and it is moving to the west. The Invest area has good convective activity. This system should take more of a southern track as high pressure remains firmly in place in the central Atlantic.
ED
(Title updated to reflect current status of system.)
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 17 2012 05:35 PM)
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cieldumort
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92L is finally coming fully into view of our GOES-East, and those first couple of frames seem to show an impressive amount of convergence pulling together near the estimated center (11.6N 26.5W), but it is yet unclear if there is a well defined low level circulation (the next microwave passes will hopefully help with this).
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doug
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If I have to guess it would seem that the strongest vortex is at 11.0/34.0 approx in the most recent picture.
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doug
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cieldumort
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Having a regular floater up over 92L during daylight is sure helping today.
I can see a couple of low to mid level swirls evident in some of the deeper convection, and I agree that it looks like the center may be trying to reestablish itself closer to the position noted above (and within one of the most recent more impressive convective flares). Aside from these perhaps transient mid-level vortices however, a complete OSCAT pass from 1358Z this morning really showed a very promising surface circulation to be centered near 12.1N 30.2W at that time. (LINK) Extrapolating that out several hours might suggest that whatever is left of this earlier bona fide LLC could now be closer to 12.5N 32.5W (maybe). Looks like we may need another good day or so to get a better handle on what is really going on.
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doug
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8:00 a.m. TD said near 12 N/35 W so we were in the neighborhood...the floater makes all the difference...
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doug
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LoisCane
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actually looking better tonight... not great but better.
has the same shape ...elongated tail that curves around ahead of it and bends off the top as the wave over Africa
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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weatherhead
Verified CFHC User
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Yes, 92L is definitely looking better as the boosted it's chances to 70% tonight. The has not picked up on this one. I wonder if it will fizzle soon and if this may be the trend to come? Best to wait and see if or when it gets it's act together then the models can do their thing....
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Claims Adjuster
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berrywr
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10/02Z - I haven't looked at the 10/00Z run but I have looked at both the 12Z and 18Z runs..currently there's a break between the Cape Verde/African Upper Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge and for a while the Cape Verde ridge follow along the system but the anomalously deep cutoff low over the Great Lakes region is impressive to say the least with an extending long wave trough all the way to the Gulf Coast. The break appears to be in the vicinity of 56W longtitude and the westerlies take quite the dip. Florence is DOA with the long wave trough in place over the Eastern US and if it were to survive it would have a date with recurvature nevertheless. Any tropical activity has to stay right along 10N latitude to have any shot at getting across the AO. The models have been consistent for days bringing back from the dead in the Pacific.
(This post was edited in the main forum, but posted in its entirety in the "lounge"...we affectionately call it the 5 day rule)
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
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10/0415Z - Looked at the 10/00Z package...the African wave continues to likely be a "fish" storm...blame Ed, he coined that phrase. A break between the Bermuda and Cape Verde upper ridges and the westerlies along the eastern US will be somewhat suppressed southward in the middle and long range. The storm to watch is TD7; it's the only system south enough to be pulled into the GOM given the upper air pattern next several days.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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mikethewreck
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Is it me or has SAL/dry air been smothering TD7 all through its journey westward? And it looks like 93L may face the same SAL/dry air gauntlet. And Florence too looks like was wiped out that same way.
Is there a break in the dry air/SAL pattern likely soon? I guess we should hope the answer is no to keep the storms from intensifying.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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doug
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it is the persistent SW'ly shear that is hindering development.
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doug
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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TD 7 weakens and becomes an open wave east of the Leeward Islands. Blustery rain squalls still possible in the Leeward Islands this weekend.
ED
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