cieldumort
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After a lull we now have two distinct tropical waves approaching the Caribbean. As of this entry, the nearest is centered around 14N 62.5W, and is encountering strong shear. The second, which is accompanied by a surface low, is centered near 9.5N 34.5W, and in addition to being the more vigorous of the two, is also enjoying slightly favorable upper level winds. This second feature has been tagged Invest 99L. The estimated center location of 99L noted above is a rough approximation, and subject to change.
Presently, Invest 99L is fairly disorganized, but has been becoming somewhat less so overnight. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be running about 25MPH, with a minimum pressure of 1010mb. The feature consists of a robust tropical wave with a discernible surface low, and is triggering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development, if any, is the most probable outcome, thus should 99L not develop within the next 3 or so days it could then have a chance to become a named storm if in the Caribbean. Development sooner rather than later would encourage, but not guarantee, a pull more to the northwest, or north, which could result in a course more towards the Greater Antilles, or even out to sea .
(Updated to reflect new thread title and hurricane status. )
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 07 2012 06:47 PM)
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cieldumort
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As of 1:45PM EDT August 1, Invest 99L has become much more organized, and now has deep convection blowing up over a well defined low level circulation.
Conditions look to remain favorable for at least the next 24 hours for continued improvement, and it is probable that 99L will become a named storm within the next day or so, and perhaps as early as tonight.
This incipient cyclone is currently centered near 12N 48W, and traveling WNW at around 15-20 mph, however the center has apparently consolidated further north than earlier estimates, giving the look of a NW to NNW track at first glance.
As a precaution, interests in the Greater & Lesser Antilles may want to begin preparations for tropical cyclone condition by this weekend.
Above: Invest 99L at 1715UTC August 1, 2012
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Joeyfl
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99L very well defined with convection firing over the center. I would be quite surprised if this was not made a depression or storm tonight given its improved organization and amount of time of sustained convection. For now a WNW track into the Caribbean looks good beyond that point its a guess as European is in the northern camp while is weak and further south. Time will tell as to how much latitude it can gain and what shear it may encounter to determine it is pulled more north or keeps on a WNW heading.
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cieldumort
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As noted on the Main Page, Invest 99L was upgraded to Tropical Depression FIVE this afternoon.
TD5 is going to be another tricky one to forecast. On the one hand, FIVE has a healthy surface low pressure circulation riding atop warm waters. On the other hand, the tropical cyclone is already pushing up into a region of moderate to high southwesterly shear, limiting the convection to the southern semicircle. Additionally, subsident, dry air is still in some abundance in the western Atlantic.
Future track probably won't be as challenging to forecast as its intensity. The first official forecast overall leans towards the solution, gradually strengthening TD5 into Hurricane by the time it reaches the western Caribbean. On this forecast track, the Lesser Antilles will likely have a wet and blustery coming weekend.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 03 2012 12:25 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Ernesto remains a very disorganized tropical cyclone located about 110 miles east northeast of Barbados at 03/01Z moving to the west at 18 kts. AF RECON reported winds of 45 knots earlier today but given the structure of the system the winds could have been more convective rather than increasing cyclonic intensity. However, with the storm approaching Barbados and the Windward Islands, an upgrade to Tropical Storm status seems like a reasonable precaution.
The system is moving into an expanding region of westerly wind shear aloft that should limit any significant development for the next three days as crosses the southern Caribbean Sea. I'd expect that will probably be located between Jamaica and northeastern Honduras in about 5 days moving generally to the west northwest as the Atlantic ridge stays strong and extends westward. Intensity probably a little lower than the 70 knots currently reflected because of the windshear. SST is around 28C in the central Caribbean Sea. If the ridge weakens at that time, a more northwesterly movement could slowly develop. will pass through the northern Windward Islands early on Friday and the following Watches/Warning are currently in effect:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 05 2012 04:21 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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TS continues to weaken and it appears that southwesterly wind shear has decoupled the system. This shear should decline in intensity, but the ridge to the north will continue to guide to the west. Current westward speed is 19 knots but this forward motion should slow down on Monday and Tuesday. should pass just offshore the north coast of Honduras with landfall likely in northern Belize late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Weakening shear will allow for some strengthening prior to landfall if the structure of the storm can reorganize.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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While visible satellite imagery does show an improved convective structure for TS this morning, the system is still decoupled with the mid level center displaced to the north of the surface center. Yesterday morning at 05/12Z was located at 15N 76W and the storm was moving to the west with a forecast for a west northwest movement. This morning at 06/12Z the center was located at 15.2N 81.0W with a movement to the west and a continued forecast by the for a movement to the west northwest. At 06/13Z, visible satellite confirms that remains on a track to the west - a motion that will bring to a landfall along or just inland of the north coast of Honduras later this evening as a Tropical Storm.
Weather at Puerto Lempira, Honduras
Weather at Roatan Island, Honduras
Weather at Belize City, Belize
The following Warning/Watches have been posted:
"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM"
A Tropical Storm Watch will probably be posted for Belize later today. With a more westward track, may remain over land and eventually die out over the mountains of Guatemala. Heavy rains and flooding likely tonight through Wednesday in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Ernesto has indeed reformed and intensified around its previously displaced mid-level center to the northeast of the original low-level center. The tropical cyclone continues to improve in overall structure with significant feeder band development and outflow improving in all quadrants except to the west.
With relocation of the center about 45 miles to the northeast, is likely to move westward or west northwestward offshore along the north coast of Honduras toward a landfall in Belize as a hurricane. Hurricane force winds are now likely along the north coast of Nicaragua and the entire coast of Belize - perhaps even to eastern Mexico along the Yucatan peninsula and the northeast coast of Guatemala. The heavy rain/flooding threat mentioned in the previous post still applies except the threat has decreased for Southern Guatemala and for El Salvador. Updated Warnings and Watches are as follows:
"A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA"
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Ernesto, which had been on the upswing this morning, has certainly been on the downswing this afternoon and evening. At 07/03Z I had estimated the center at 16.7N 83.2W within the ballpark of the position report. Forward motion over the past 6 hours has been just about due west rather than west northwest.
While dry air has certainly played a role in the declining appearance of the storm, I think that an additional cause has been yet another increase in the low level easterly flow that decoupled the system - again - with the mid to upper level portion of the storm currently displaced well to the east. There is still time prior to landfall Tuesday evening (probably in northern Belize near Belize City) for to become vertically stacked and restrengthen one more time.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
Weather at Belize City, Belize
ED
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berrywr
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Ed, do me a favor and send me whatever link you have for the Tropical Easterly Winds you were referring to in your discussion; you're right, it is moving due west in the last few frames. Not impressive at all on satellite except for a tight surface envelope.
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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cieldumort
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Sprawling has been bombing out today, now down to 983mb. With this, the winds have finally caught up, and are presently running as high as roughly 80MPH sustained, with even stronger gusts.
With this increase in intensity, has pulled a touch more to the north, yet again. This has prompted to update watches and warnings as follows:
THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
Ernesto is a dangerously larger sized Category 1 hurricane, and thus may produce some potentially significant storm surge along the coast, most likely from northern Belize up through the Yucatan and nearby islands.
Inland, very heavy rainfall could result in dangerous flash flooding, and while 's strongest winds are likely to occur offshore and right along the coast, at least gusts to hurricane force may also be experienced well inland.
It is very possible, if not probable, that strengthens still more prior to making landfall along the Yucatan/Belize coastlines.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Well certainly has been an interesting storm to forecast - and he is at it again. After developing rather impressively this afternoon, dry air has once again worked itself into the core of the hurricane - just after the 21Z bulletins were issued. This latest degradation of the core should just about eliminate any chance for further intensification - which would be good news for the folks in the Yucatan - but don't rely on anything concrete with this storm. Landfall as a hurricane is just about certain.
At 07/21Z Hurricane was located about 140 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the west northwest at 12 knots. This translates to an early morning landfall between Cozumel and Chetumal, Mexico. From :
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
Current Weather at Chetumal, Mexico
Current Weather at Cozumel, Mexico
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Ernesto made landfall about 40 miles east northeast of Chetumal, Mexico, at 10PM CDT. No weather observations were available since Chetumal observing site closes at 7PM CDT. Media reported wave heights up to 31 feet just north of the center.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
Current Weather at Campeche, Mexico
Current Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 08 2012 04:49 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Tropical Storm nearing Cuidad del Carmen, Mexico, and heading for the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Heavy rains continue over sections of eastern Mexico and northern Guatemala.
From :
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 08 2012 05:02 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Tropical Storm is approaching the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula with excellent storm structure. Movement over the past few hours has been north of due west, however it is too soon to know whether its just a wobble or a trend. The western extent of the Atlantic ridge has started to slowly retreat eastward. A future motion to the west northwest would keep over the Bay of Campeche for a longer period of time and allow for some additional re-intensification.
Current Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
Current Weather at Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico
ED
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