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Archives 2010s >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Rafael Moving North to North Northeast
      #94006 - Mon Oct 08 2012 02:07 PM

Update - 7:30 PM EDT Monday October 15, 2012
Rafael was upgraded to a Cat I hurricane, the ninth hurricane of the season, based on Recon data at 15/2145Z with sustained winds at 65knots. Hurricane Rafael is moving north at 9 knots and a turn to the north northeast with an increase in forward speed is anticipated on Tuesday.

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Update - 2:30 PM EDT Saturday October 13, 2012

Patty has been demolished by shear, but not so with Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael is a very large and very wet still organizing tropical cyclone. Recently recon found winds of less than tropical storm force, but this is most likely just a transient condition. Banding is becoming more defined, the core is becoming better colocated with the deepest convection, and its minimum pressure appears ready to start its decent, all indications that the cyclone is getting healthier by the hour today.

Update - 10:00 PM EDT Friday October 12, 2012
Patty is looking rather flat tonight, having been sheared apart. Its time as a tropical cyclone is probably nearing an end for now, but will continue to be watched for any signs of regeneration.

Of more concern, Invest 98L has become Tropical Storm Rafael, with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Rafael will bring very heavy to locally torrential rains over many of the eastern Caribbean islands, potentially including Puerto Rico. These rains may result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.




Update - 5:30 PM EDT Thursday October 11, 2012
TD 16 is now Tropical Storm Patty, impressively becoming the sixteenth named tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Storm Patty is expected to meet an early demise tomorrow in the face of increasing southwesterly shear working against her in tandem with entrainment of stable air from the west. However, it is worth noting that sheared tropical cyclones are often a little more resilient than models allow for, which simply means that interests in and around the Bahamas should keep a watchful eye on Patty, just in case.

Update - 1:30 PM EDT Thursday October 11, 2012
Just a quick update to note that Invest 97L has become TD 16. More specifics on Tropical Depression Sixteen can be found in the TD #16 Area of Interest and in the TD #16 Forecast Lounge

Update - 5:00 AM EDT Thursday October 11, 2012
Invest 97L has been showing a lot of the qualities of a sheared tropical cyclone for well over 12 hours now, and NHC has recently been giving a nod to an increasing likelihood of a real-time (as opposed to post-season) upgrade to an officiated tropical cyclone. 97L has a short window to strengthen much more before it may get sheared apart by or merged with another approaching front later today.

While 97L has been confounding model and official forecasts, Invest 98L east of the Windward Islands is trending more or less as advertised. This vigorous and rather large tropical wave is slowly organizing, with winds to tropical storm force already noted within its heavier squalls.

Invest 98L is likely to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands as a heavy rain and strong wind maker whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone by the weekend, and is then forecast to begin turning northwest to north.

The next two names on the 2012 list are Patty and Rafael.

Update - 3:00 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 10, 2012
Environmental conditions for tropical cyclone development in the western Atlantic are turning from outright hostile to somewhat favorable this week, and two Invests look to be taking advantage of this.

First up, Invest 97L has been getting much better organized today, and a tropical cyclone may be forming at this time. 97L consists of a well-defined surface low pressure system, with somewhat organized deep convection in its eastern semicircle. A front was largely expected to sweep it off to the northeast, but owing to synoptic changes in the western Atlantic, the incipient cyclone could end up moving more southerly, at least at first. Read more about 97L in the Invest 97L Forecast Lounge.

Farther out, a vigorous tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually getting a little better organized, and a tropical cyclone could very well form prior to passage through the islands later this week. Discussion is open for 98L in the Invest 98L Forecast Lounge.

Original Post - 02:07 PM 08 October 2012
Invest 97L is in the southern Bahamas moving to the northwest and Invest 98L is in the central Atlantic south of 10N moving to the west. Both systems are not likely to develop in the next few days because of a hostile (windshear) upper atmosphere.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 15 2012 07:45 PM)

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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: A Couple of Invests [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94007 - Wed Oct 10 2012 12:16 PM

The former 97L still appears circular and getting separated from the trough today. I still want to keep an eye on that, but it would probably move to the NE whether it forms or not.

98L is still rather disorganized with no apparent LLC. The models want to develop and take it toward the NW near the Leeward Islands and then Northwestward to the NE of the Bahamas.

2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 1/0/0

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Hurricane Rafael Moving North [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94022 - Mon Oct 15 2012 05:07 PM

At times today Rafael hinted at an eye that was moving to the north northwest. Best Track at 18Z still indicated sustained winds at 60 knots. Strong south southwesterly windshear just to the west of the storm is going to make any additional increase in intensity difficult because the system is still not vertically aligned, however, SSTs near Bermuda are still warm at 27C. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

(Rafael was upgraded to a Hurricane at 15/2145Z.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 15 2012 07:52 PM)

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Re: Hurricane Rafael Moving North [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94023 - Mon Oct 15 2012 08:54 PM

Rafael is looking quite impressive this evening. Vigorous convection over the center with a circular CDO. The NHC 5PM discussion is blown.

2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 1/0/0

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