CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
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13/8/5
-------------------- My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Here in La. we've had a relatively cool May with fronts coming through and on into the GOM fairly regularly unlike last year when we had 90 degree plus temperatures and drought conditions in May. With the fronts we've had a lot of rain too.
With that in mind I see a limited season this year compared to recent seasons; however, I want to temper that with the notion that seems to be more agressive in naming storms than they have been a decade or two ago and consequently we see more marginal storms named than we once did.
I'm going with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes but only 3 major canes. I think this season will be more heavily weighted to the Atlantic Ocean and the GOM will be relatively quiet with only tropical storms, no canes.
I think this season is going to be relatively weak like last season, but all it takes is a Sandy to hit in the right spot under the right circumstances to cause a lot of grief.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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So far only 15 participants in the 2013 version of guesstimating the seasons totals. This thread will close on June 1st at 00Z (8PM EDST on May 31st) so you still have until Friday evening to toss your numbers into the fray.
Cheers,
ED
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JimB
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Central FL
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10/7/2
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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13 Tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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15/10/5
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2409
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Another interesting season up ahead. With an expected neutral and a continuation of the positive MDO the safe bet, the one that requires as little thinking as possible, is for an above-average season as far as total numbers of named storms/hurricanes/majors are concerned.
Unfortunately, hurricane seasons rarely follow formulas to the letter. Even in seasons that "ought" to be one way or another, a number of other variables, or an unexpected shift in one of the main variables, say, an unexpected El Nino, can absolutely torque a seasonal forecaster's best efforts.
My best guess for this season now stands at 17 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 4 Majors, and I expect that the range this year is really, to be candid, more or less 10-22 Names, 7-12 Hurricanes and 2-6 Majors.
Needless to say, I view 2013 as a lower-confidence year for the seasonal forecasters, despite that fact that so many are in phenomenally good agreement right now.
Let's take a look at the seasonal forecasts that have been released so far (and the only ones I think are really worth "counting" if one is going to try to compare expert seasonal forecasts against climatology, because by the time Aug/Sept rolls around, most folks really don't need a tropical weather 'expert' to tell them which way the season's winds are blowing).
Sample of Professional Seasonal Forecasts Released Prior to June 2013 for Upcoming Atlantic Season
Agency Tot. Storms Tot.Hurricanes Majors
Colorado State |
18 |
9 |
4 |
WSI (TWC) |
16 |
9 |
5 |
TSR |
15.3 |
7.5 |
3.4 |
UKMET |
14 |
9 |
N/A |
Accuweather |
16 |
8 |
4 |
Cuban INSMET |
17 |
9 |
N/A |
Weatherbell |
16 |
12 |
5 |
NOAA |
16.5 |
9 |
4.5 |
HTML Tables
So yes, it is plainly obvious from above that the bulk of the professional seasonal forecasters in 2013 are in a range of about 16 Names, 9 Hurricanes & 4 Majors. Another very, very active year, if verified.
But before even commenting on strikes vs. formation, how about a look at how pre-June seasonal forecasts actually hold up against reality, and just so nobody can accuse me of cherry-picking, I am simply going to use the past three seasons from what are generally regarded by many as three of the very top seasonal forecasting agencies.
Year Agency Forecast (N/H/M) Actual (N/H/M) Miss
2012 |
NOAA |
12/6/2 |
19/10/2 |
-11 |
2012 |
CSU |
10/4/2 |
19/10/2 |
-15 |
2012 |
TSR |
13/6/3 |
19/10/2 |
-11 |
2011 |
NOAA |
15/8/4.5 |
19/7/4 |
-5.5 |
2011 |
CSU |
16/9/5 |
19/7/4 |
-6 |
2011 |
TSR |
13/7.5/3.5 |
19/7/4 |
-7 |
2010 |
NOAA |
18.5/11/5 |
19/12/5 |
-1.5 |
2010 |
CSU |
15/8/4 |
19/12/5 |
-9 |
2010 |
TSR |
16/8/4 |
19/12/5 |
-8 |
HTML Tables
If the past three years are any indication (and they are), three different agencies covering three different seasons, thus totalling nine seasonal forecasts, only provided one out of the nine that was basically accurate (NOAA 2010). Two out of the nine were in the ballpark (NOAA 2011 & CSU 2011), leaving six out of nine, fully two-thirds, as varying degrees of bust.
In the end, it doesn't really matter to any individual in any given year how many total named storms/hurricanes/majors there are. What matters most in any given year is where they go, and maybe to a lesser degree, when they go there.
I've added a best-guess strike map for this year to my own seasonal best guesses, and it is available for view by clicking on the attachments tab up at the top. For what it's worth, I believe 2013 will have an above average to much above average threat of U.S. landfalls. This is due in part to the overall numbers of tropical cyclones produced, and the most probable steering currents throughout the season.
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SchexStorm
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: New Iberia, LA
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I will guess 16/7/4
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2409
Loc: Austin, Tx
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As an afterthought, I wanted to mention that I don't believe the odds of a below-normal season to be very good - I'm of the opinion that we will most likely see an average to hyperactive year in 2013, biased to be at least above average, with a breakdown something like this: In bottom 5 seasons: 0%, well below avg: 2%, below avg: 8%, about avg 20%, above avg 20%, well above avg: 25%, in top 5 seasons: 25%.
Basically, baring a surprisingly fast developing El Nino, excessive SAL, or other such unforeseen event, I would simply want to bet that 2013 continues the general trend seen since 1995 consistent with the warm AMO phase, which if anything, has only become more pronounced (Image below).
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4614
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Mine is 15/7/2
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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18/11/5
-------------------- Irwin M. Fletcher
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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20/12/6
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Going to be big year i think... 2005 like numbers... and an early Cape season i believe... I don't see Florida missing out on a Hurricane this year.... i know... sounds bad. But the overall pattern IMO looks very, very active.
27 Systems
24 Named Storms
19 Hurricanes
9 Major Hurricanes
Let's hope for a quite one!
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 28 2013 10:31 PM)
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eulogia
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL
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I'll throw in a guess -
22 Named Storms
12 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
-------------------- Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Been listening to the Mets. Even my daughter who says this is going to be a crazy year. (says floridians just know the weather...lol) So we talked it over and here is our shot into the dark...
19 Named
9 Hurricanes
6 Major (ouch)
wish cast..they all become fish spinners.
-------------------- Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Orlando
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Excellent information from cieldumort. If we believe in following the trends, which I will this year, then this is fairly easy with the recent data. There have been a few more dramatic year to year swings in the last dozen years or so, but I do not see any reason for the current trends to change significantly.
I am also going with 18 / 11 / 5 .
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 385
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Glad to see everyone back in the saddle! it has been one of the weirdest winters I can remember in 40 years of watching the weather in Florida. I guess it would not be odd to have an unusual storm season. I just hope Florida's run of luck continues. Going for 3 decent predictions in a row....
I think I am going to split the middle of a couple and go with:
18 named
9 hurricanes
4 strong storms
This is one year I hope we overestimate!
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 464
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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In just under the bell, it's been a crazy year on this end, I just started school at Georgia Tech where I'm aiming to get both a second undergraduate degree and an M.S. in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences college. I still haven't decided if I want to focus on Meteorology or Climatology, Heck, maybe both?
Anyway onto my prediction
19 Depressions
18 Tropical Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 385
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Go for it! There is many a day I wish I had gone into meteorology instead of being put off by the physics and math requirements! I had the chance and passed it by!
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Last minute guess- 19/10/3
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