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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Vigorous Andrea Upping the Ante
      #94345 - Sun Jun 02 2013 08:36 PM

6 June 2013 5:00 AM EDT Update


Tropical Storm Andrea has defied forecasts calling for little or no strengthening, and has become a potent 60 MPH Tropical Storm, and this could be conservative. Additionally, while not forecast, some additional strengthening is actually still possible before landfall.

Andrea has managed to run into a zone of upper-level winds that are actually resulting in two events supportive of intensification:

First, strong upper-level winds that would normally be creating detrimental shear are running in about the same direction Andrea has been traveling overnight, also important that her forward speed has increased, both resulting in net effective shear that is actually quite a bit lower than would be the case if the cyclone was heading to a more right angle of the mean upper-level flow.

Second, these same upper-level winds have created a nice source of exhaust for Andrea's thunderstorms, thereby creating a perpetual entrainment machine: inflow in, inflow out (vacuum) more inflow in, more inflow out (rinse and repeat).

Andrea now exhibits the hallmark of a tropical cyclone that does not necessarily need to reach hurricane status to result in more than just some heavy tropical squalls, and those in its path may wish to consider revisiting their hurricane preparedness plans, as regardless of whether Andrea intensifies further, very heavy rain - with increased risks of inland flooding - some storm surge flooding along the coast, potentially damaging winds - especially in gusts - and isolated tornadoes, are now all possible anywhere from south Florida right up into the Big Bend.

Later in the week, Andrea is forecast to continue at storm intensity as she rides up the east coast. This has necessitated Tropical Storm Warnings to be extended all the way to Virginia.

Ciel


5 June 2013 6:30 PM EDT Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the West Coast of Florida from Boca Grande (Coast between Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte) and the Ochlockonee River (Just south of Tallahassee). Tropical Watches are up from Flagler Beach on the East coast of Florida north to Surf City, NC.

Storm surge flooding of 2-4 ft above ground level, or inundation, expected with TS Andrea from Tampa Bay Northward to Apalachicola

From NWS Melbourne:




5 June 2013 5:30 PM EDT Update
Andrea Forms.

From a special Tropical Weather Outlook:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE National Hurricane Center WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings for the West coast of Florida will likely be up soon.

5 June 2013 8:00 AM EDT Update
Development chances are 50/50 now, but even with the flareup overnight, the circulation is still not defined very well. Nonetheless, development may occur within the next 48 hours before its forecast move inland across the Big Bend or Eastern Panhandle tomorrow night.

5 June 2013 5:00 AM EDT Update
Flhurricane.com for complete story & discussion.

As of early this morning, here are the bullet points:
91L's structure is a blend of subtropical and marginally tropical
91L's weather continues to be most pronounced on its eastern half
Conditions for development have turned from unfavorable to marginally favorable
Conditions for development are forecast to become even better over the next day or two

The broad low pressure area being tracked as Invest 91L has been struggling to organize over the past several days, but conditions are now staring to become marginally favorable for subtropical or tropical development.

As of early Wednesday morning, 91L still consists of a broad surface circulation with multiple, competing swirls about an axis of lower pressure, but this could be starting to change.

Late last night convection started flaring up a little closer to the center, and not so far removed as to be completely auxiliary. Concurrent with this event, pressures have been falling, and wind speeds rising. More recently, night vision IR imagery suggests that a center reformation may be trying to take place closer to the deepest convection. Any one of these by itself may not mean much, but taken together, this is characteristic of a sloppy system getting better organized.

The driving forces that have been holding 91L in check are starting to relax, with both shear and dry air decreasing. With upper level winds now aligning themselves a little with the lower levels, 91L is starting to take on a somewhat classic subtropical cyclone look.

At the surface, observations show winds now up to around 35 MPH sustained, with higher gusts. Most of the strongest winds are occurring well removed from 91Ls estimated center, which is also consistent with subtropical cyclones. In fact, a ship report from roughly 350 miles to its east recently reported winds of up to 49 MPH in a thunderstorm.

Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly through Invest 91L later today.

Ciel


4 June 2013 Update

The area in the Gulf, 91L, continues to hang in the gulf, but is starting to show more subtropical characteristics, which ultimately means more rain and breezy conditions over a larger area.



The west side of the system is still involved in a lot of dry air, as the general center itself is still off the tip of the Yucatan. The rainfall is starting to appear in southwest Florida, and will slowly spread northward, most of the rain will likely wind up being in south Florida.

Development wise, it has about a 30% shot to develop in the next 48 hours currently, and as mentioned earlier probably has a better chance to develop into a subtropical system, if at all, than a purely tropical one. Still either could occur, and it just means flooding conditions for parts of Florida as it drifts very slowly through the gulf, more northerly at first before flowing a bit east, which will give more central and north Florida a chance for rain later.

For central Florida late Wednesday night and most of Thursday is the highest chance for rainfall, some rain may linger in south Florida after the system moves over a bit longer, so South Florida still will by far see the most rainfall.

Based on the path of the storm, conditions will possibly be good for a small tornado threat Thursday night in parts of Florida.

Long term florida radar recording SWFWMD Full Florida Radar Recording for 91L Alternate Style


Original Update

Tropical Development is possible this week, and it may impact Florida. At the very least rainfall will be great most of the week, through Thursday when the most likely landfall time would occur on the West Central Florida coastline. As the area currently is very broad, the most likely place to watch for development is the general center near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical development chances are only at 20% right now, but conditions are good enough that a possible tropical depression or lower end Tropical Storm may form mid week. Rainfall in central and south Florida will be greatly enhanced by this broad low pressure area this week, as of 8:30PM it began being tracked as an "Invest" area, 91L near 22.0N, 88.6W.

Florida will need to be aware of the potential for Flooding rains, as the system may be offshore in the gulf until
Thursday, driving rain up through the Florida peninsula the entire time. More to come as conditions warrant.

Unlikely, but if a tropical storm forms (best chance for this is Wednesday evening, if at all), it would be named Andrea.




Andrea Event Related Links


float1latest.gif stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2013&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Andrea
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Andrea


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Andrea (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Andrea (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Andrea

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Andrea
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Andrea -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Storm Surge Tides and Currents for Andrea

Webcams
Bird Key Webcam
Siesta Key Webcam
Clearwater Beach Webcams
Treasure Island webcams
Anna Maria Island Webcams

Ocean Key Resort Live Stream cams (3 on one page)

Florida Keys Webcams
Beach Cam Key West (Controllable) South Street Key West Cam (Controllable)
Duval Street Key West streaming cam (w/ Audio)
Bahia Honda Key Cam Recording (Alt)

Florida Keys traffic cameras

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jun 06 2013 07:37 AM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MikeC]
      #94346 - Sun Jun 02 2013 08:58 PM

Keeping an eye on this. If anything, it will be a rain maker for Florida in the least. I'm not seeing any guidance developing it to TS strength just yet and it really is too early to tell without a defined system/TD. Potential track guidance is consistent with the surface synopsis with a frontal trough to Florida's NW bringing something across the big bend region Thursday and Friday. I haven't looked at the sea surface temps in the Gulf, so I don't know how that might influence any future development. It's a wait and see situation for now.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MichaelA]
      #94348 - Sun Jun 02 2013 09:02 PM

Michael, most of the temps I saw yesterday were in the upper 70s throughout the central GOM. Was an area of mid/upper 70s west of the Big Bend area, but it could move upward quickly depending on cloud cover this week. now that I actually check BN9, this is what I am seeing for water temps (I will try to post an image):


Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Sun Jun 02 2013 09:07 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #94349 - Sun Jun 02 2013 09:07 PM

I just looked at the SST plot on the satellite imagery and that indicates mostly 82 - 85ºF over the southern Gulf with 78 - 79ºF (up welling?) in the big bend area near Florida. Give me a few minutes to find the buoy data....

EDIT: That is what I see from the buoy data too, so the SSTs are certainly conducive to some development, if those temps are to any significant depth, until the big bend area.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Sun Jun 02 2013 09:16 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MichaelA]
      #94350 - Sun Jun 02 2013 11:00 PM

Waiting for the next run of the 0z GFS and Euro...but the CMC is the usualy over happy on development.

CMC= Constantly Making Cyclones


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MikeC]
      #94356 - Mon Jun 03 2013 08:37 PM

91L's up to 30% tonight, but chances still are not very good it will develop. Heavy Rainfall is offshore of the Keys to the southwest, but the western side of the storm is very dry (easily seen on the water vapor loops). This would suggest it may lean more toward the subtropical side of things if it were to develop. Most of the rain probably will be Wednesday and Thursday (more in south Florida than anywhere else), but may be very spotty in other areas as the bands go in and out.

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berrywr
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MikeC]
      #94357 - Tue Jun 04 2013 09:37 AM

I haven't looked at this system until now and I will take a look at the 12Z package later. Wind shear analysis does confirm unfavorable winds aloft immediately to the east of the center of convection off the Yucatan Peninsula.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MikeC]
      #94361 - Tue Jun 04 2013 04:40 PM

Added long term florida radar recording Here for 91L

Also can be seen at this alternate link.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: MikeC]
      #94362 - Tue Jun 04 2013 07:46 PM

Latest visible loop indicates the low level vortice is moving SW at a good clip. I'd say 15 to 20 mph. This could prolong the fetch of rain into Florida. It could also give 91L a shot at becoming a warm core system.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Area Northeast of the Yucatan (91L) to Impact Florida with Rainfall this Week [Re: danielw]
      #94363 - Tue Jun 04 2013 08:01 PM

RECON is scheduled to fly an INVEST late Wednesday night.
NHC is showing 91L as a Cyclone by Noon on Thursday. Coordinates suggest a NE motion.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #94366 - Wed Jun 05 2013 02:23 PM

Chances for development tonight are higher, at around 60%, and may happen if recon, which is on the way out there now, finds anything. This system has a similar appearance that Tropical Storm Debby did last year.

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dolfinatic
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #94368 - Wed Jun 05 2013 03:05 PM

I would not be surprised to see recon close a low off and take this right to storm status. I have seen worse sat presentations be classified a TS. I am sure there are at least TS winds in the east southeast quadrant where the strongest storms are attm. That being said it is a disorganized mess and will only have to wait and see if it can get its act together in this small window of opportunity it has to strengthen. Although just a hunch but I think it is already a minimal TS. Also will be curious to see if a new center is trying to form just tucked under the comma shape of the cloud field. It looks to be a circulation there just not sure if its mid level or LLC.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: dolfinatic]
      #94369 - Wed Jun 05 2013 03:33 PM

It appears that a small chance of closing off a Low exists. The wind speeds that I'm seeing from RECON aren't high enough for Tropical Depression status.

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doug
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: danielw]
      #94370 - Wed Jun 05 2013 03:38 PM

yes there is satellite evidence of a center a little N of 25 and a little E of 87. Looks like lots of low level banding and the rotation is much better defined and vigorous today, certainly more tropical than yesterday.
Shear is very evident, an if that relaxes a bit, development would seem certain...

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: danielw]
      #94371 - Wed Jun 05 2013 03:47 PM

Just as soon as I posted the low wind speed post above. RECON found SSE winds at 39 mph in the SE Quadrant. At around 1000 feet above sea level.
Extrapolated pressure was 1004.9 at that point.

Possible center located north of the latest aircraft turn. Based on wind directions only.
Coordinates: 25.0N 86.8W

Follow RECON on tropicalatlantic.com
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 05 2013 03:55 PM)


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sara33
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: danielw]
      #94372 - Wed Jun 05 2013 03:54 PM

Is it posted yet on NHC, Couldn't find the info on that RECON..Can you post it:) Thanks

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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: sara33]
      #94373 - Wed Jun 05 2013 04:09 PM

We may have a TS in the making or very close to it based on recon fixes thus far, just a matter of seeing if they can close it off as winds 40-50 mph near the surface have been measured with higher speeds seen at flight level...

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94374 - Wed Jun 05 2013 04:29 PM

If recon can find something worth mentioning in winds from the northeast or northwest it may be upgraded soon, if not, it'll be later.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: danielw]
      #94375 - Wed Jun 05 2013 04:32 PM

4 PM EDT visible satellite with the latest, up until 4:15 PM EDT, RECON superimposed.




Images courtesy of TropicalAtlantic and NOAA.
RECON courtesy of TropicalAtlantic and the United States Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Wing.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #94376 - Wed Jun 05 2013 05:07 PM

No vortex message... yet, but it looks like recon may have found a closed area, so a depression or storm bulletins may be issued any time now.

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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #94377 - Wed Jun 05 2013 05:11 PM

Looking at recon and winds it looks like we have a closed low, awaiting for NHC statement.....

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94378 - Wed Jun 05 2013 05:28 PM

Looks like we have a number for it, at least.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
INVEST_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306052121
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012013
AL, 01, 2013060418, , BEST, 0, 239N, 870W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2013060500, , BEST, 0, 243N, 870W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2013060506, , BEST, 0, 246N, 870W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2013060512, , BEST, 0, 249N, 869W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 250, 200, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: MikeC]
      #94379 - Wed Jun 05 2013 05:31 PM

Andrea is born, advisory out soon.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Intensifying With a Window now Opening for Development [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94382 - Wed Jun 05 2013 06:01 PM

URNT12 KBIX 052132
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912013
A. 05/20:53:20Z
B. 25 deg 11 min N
086 deg 38 min W
C. NA
D. 30 kt
E. 310 deg 27 nm
F. 057 deg 36 kt
G. 303 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 21 C / 243 m
J. 25 C / 242 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT


appears to be warm core 25 C

AMENDED VORTEX
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:39:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°10'N 86°34'W (25.1667N 86.5667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 303 miles (488 km) to the W (278°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 35° at 28kts (From the NE at ~ 32.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 244m (801ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 274m (899ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:66
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 066/45 19:43:00Z


Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 05 2013 06:14 PM)


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vineyardsaker
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Is the current HypeScale not too low? [Re: danielw]
      #94384 - Wed Jun 05 2013 08:22 PM

The current HypeScale is at 2.1 - why is that the case? Do current conditions which include "Potential Depression/Tropical Storm US land impact" not warrant a 4+ HypeScale? Does that indicate that Andrea is really weak or are we being too slow to start paying attention to what is happening?

Cheers!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Is the current HypeScale not too low? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #94386 - Wed Jun 05 2013 09:09 PM

Hypescale is fairly unscientific and measures media response more than anything.

Strong cells are over the Dry Tortugas west of the Keys, and another strong rain band is approaching Venice on the west coast of Florida tonight. Most of the bad stuff is still offshore at the moment, though.


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JoshuaK
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Is the current HypeScale not too low? [Re: MikeC]
      #94388 - Wed Jun 05 2013 11:01 PM

I'll be out working in this for the next couple of nights. I hope nothing too strong blows through, I'm not sure how much our guard shack can take.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Is the current HypeScale not too low? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #94389 - Wed Jun 05 2013 11:19 PM

The Keys are getting it tonight, tornado near 7 Mile bridge, and another approaching Marathon.




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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Is the current HypeScale not too low? [Re: MikeC]
      #94391 - Thu Jun 06 2013 01:26 AM

Initial pass from RECON.
Looks like the estimated Center has moved about 45 miles due north. Or just a hair east of due north.

I'm waiting on the NE to SW pass about 90 minutes from now to confirm Center location.

Center Dropsonde location. Estimated center~danielw
Coordinates: 26.7N 86.2W
Location: 246 miles (396 km) to the WSW (249°) from Tampa, FL, USA.

Edited by danielw (Thu Jun 06 2013 01:28 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
RECON Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #94393 - Thu Jun 06 2013 02:08 AM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 05:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2013
Storm Name: Andrea (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 5:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°39'N 86°13'W (26.65N 86.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 248 miles (399 km) to the WSW (248°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 53° at 38kts (From the NE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NW (309°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT 132/68 05:21:50Z

Center temperatures have dropped quite a bit. The highest temp was 25 C. On the first mission. But it is night time.~danielw


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Is the current HypeScale not too low? [Re: MikeC]
      #94394 - Thu Jun 06 2013 03:40 AM

Dual Pol allows us to look at what are called rotational/dual velocity couplets. There were two TVS - tornadic vortex signatures. If you have the grlevelx radar software you can view even the debris balls.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #94397 - Thu Jun 06 2013 07:33 AM

Current Sat. trends seem to indicate that the direction will take Andrea over Pasco/Hernando counties as point of initial land fall and that the dominant direction is more ENE than NE. Also, as the day dawns the squall line approaching the coast line is intensifying and increasing in coverage. Some significant impact can be expected well removed from the center as is usual in fledgling storms such as this.

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Landfall [Re: doug]
      #94409 - Thu Jun 06 2013 10:05 AM

Yeah it took a wobble that direction...still think it will be up closer to Citrus or Levi but wouldn't shock me if it's down 1 county. Not alot of wind in the overall rain mass..maybe 10-15mph...general rainstorm...almost no lightning..very typical for a warm core system. Though winds will pick up as Andrea moves over the coast by later in the afternoon..expect winds to increase 20-30mph and will be around 40-50 near and to the right of her landfall. Still main threat is Tornados and Flooding. SS should only be 2ft but parts of Tampa's LL areas might get overflow from the bay...and up the coast

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