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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94594 - Thu Jul 25 2013 08:51 PM

Our girl got cut off from that moisture she was sucking in from the south.We now will see what effect it will have on her.See the last frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Thu Jul 25 2013 08:52 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94601 - Fri Jul 26 2013 06:57 AM

Dorian is still holding on. Whagt are the chances of heer turning polar after the end of the forecast period? If she gets stronger and the steering current to the west weaken, she will turn poleward.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #94602 - Fri Jul 26 2013 07:12 AM

It's going through a rough area today and may not make it (as a storm). It's small enough to possibly hang on though, but there still isn't much to suggest it moving poleward anytime soon. Especially if it stays weak across most of the Atlantic, in fact the GFS plows it into or skirts just north of Hispaniola and then into Cuba, still going westward the entire time. The ridging forecast remains strong, but it's well into forecast crazy land that far out (talking about Aug 1st-2nd)

Euro still has it falling apart, but that model has more trouble with tiny systems.

Right now the forecast "cone" is about is good as a forecast you can get, and immediately beyond I don't see anything turning it poleward immediately after it, but if a weakness in the ridge does form it may be possible. Probably will have a better idea on Tuesday once it gets just north of the eastern Caribbean.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94604 - Fri Jul 26 2013 10:34 AM

I am really hoping this thing falls apart because from everything I can see it should turn a little north once it reaches the southern Bahamas.That would bring what ever is left into SE Florida.If I were to bet right now I would say she will be just a wave in a day or 2.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Jul 26 2013 11:16 AM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94606 - Fri Jul 26 2013 12:25 PM

And now the end is near...........I think she is toast.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94608 - Fri Jul 26 2013 03:46 PM

there is still a low level circulation, but virtually no convection...cannot see how that can continue at storm strength,,,

--------------------
doug


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JimB
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Central FL
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94609 - Fri Jul 26 2013 03:59 PM

You have to love dry air, what a difference from earlier to now:





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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: JimB]
      #94611 - Fri Jul 26 2013 05:56 PM

Dorian maybe dying,but from what I have seen so far this season,I am not looking forward to August and September.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94612 - Sat Jul 27 2013 12:23 AM

She is not going down easy.Look at this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif



Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 27 2013 12:38 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94614 - Sat Jul 27 2013 05:17 AM

She is defintley undergoing a burst of convection and I do not understand why. Looks like a fairly hostile environ for her.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #94621 - Sat Jul 27 2013 12:31 PM

Looks to me like there are two CoC's now, widely separated, with the western one firing some deep convection and the eastern one dissipating.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94622 - Sat Jul 27 2013 12:55 PM

Dorian is an interesting system. The eastern circulation is probably the upper circulation that is getting wiped out by the dry air. The dry layer exists at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere (mostly upper) whereas moist air is still in place at the lower levels so that moisture keeps firing bursts of convection near the low level circulation. We are also at the convective minimum for the day so the system is in its diurnally weakest timeframe. Dorian looks to be more like a TD - and barely that, but it will probably ramp up again later this evening. If not, its history.
ED


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94624 - Sat Jul 27 2013 03:39 PM

And now the entire system seems to be collapsing, looking more and more like a wave and less a tropical cyclone.

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panhandler
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Loc:
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94626 - Sun Jul 28 2013 10:59 AM

Looks a lot better this morning on all satellite views. Can't find an ASCAT pass that properly captures the newly developing circulation, but apparently it looks healthy enough that recon is going to check it out at some point today.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: panhandler]
      #94629 - Sun Jul 28 2013 04:30 PM

Because of my location and the fact that Dorian seems to be getting her act together a little(yes I know it is not technically still Dorian)I am back to watching this system very closely.She has pretty good outflow now and the overall structure has improved.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94630 - Sun Jul 28 2013 05:12 PM

Quote:

She has pretty good outflow now and the overall structure has improved.




Sure has. I had pretty much written her off: surrounded by dry air, lots of shear but then during the middle part of today she looked much better especially in terms of outflow. However now she looks like she rained herself out, almost all the moisture is gone.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #94631 - Sun Jul 28 2013 05:25 PM

Quote:

Quote:

She has pretty good outflow now and the overall structure has improved.




Sure has. I had pretty much written her off: surrounded by dry air, lots of shear but then during the middle part of today she looked much better especially in terms of outflow. However now she looks like she rained herself out, almost all the moisture is gone.




Yea,was just looking at that.She will need to hang on for about 24-48 hours,then she will be under much better surroundings.Another crazy system.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94633 - Sun Jul 28 2013 08:09 PM

NHC has it up to a 50% chance now.Convection keeps coming and going.This is getting very interesting.The system as a whole has really grown in size.Stay tuned.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94634 - Sun Jul 28 2013 11:06 PM

Most of the models that are used to determine intensification,are calling for this system to become a hurricane.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Dorian Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94635 - Mon Jul 29 2013 07:42 AM

A quick run through the floater loops suggests to me that it is still a trough. The outflow looks less impressive this morning. The influence of the ULL to its NW is pronounced on the west side preventing any evacuation along its western edge. It has completely separated from the tropical convergence zone and will have to generate its energy internally for the most part. In that regard pressures are relatively high in the immediate surroundings 1016-1018, and it will have to sustain convective development in order to do so. Right now I think most of the convection is of diffluent origin, i.e. interaction with the ULL, particularly to the west of the base of the trough, which may spell the end of the system if it cannot develop a consistent convective core near the base of the trough. I think the NHC has correctly called this a toss up and I have no sense that further development in the sense of cyclone regeneration will occur.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon Jul 29 2013 07:46 AM)


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