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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 99L (EIGHT) a Threat to Mexico. X-Gabrielle Percolating
      #94762 - Fri Sep 06 2013 01:11 PM

Update 12:30 PM CDT 6 September 2013
NHC has just announced that 99L is being upgraded, and advisories on TD8 (or a named storm) will be issued within the next hour or two.

Original Entry 11:30 AM CDT 5 September 2013
A very well developed area of low pressure in the far western Gulf of Mexico (99L) is pushing inland today, Sept 6, with heavy rains forecast for eastern Mexico.

After tracking across the Yucatan and developing a closed but broad circulation, Invest 99L appears to be getting much more organized today right as it is pushing inland. This can sometimes occur, as systems often tend to fold into themselves in response to running into land. Also, particularly in the western Gulf of Mexico, the general day-to-day windflow frequently favors cyclogenesis.

Invest 99L presently has maximum sustained winds of at least 35MPH, and is expected to produce widespread rains of up to 5", with locally much higher amounts possible.

A Special Advisory was issued by NHC around 10:30AM CDT, anticipating that the system would be inland prior to becoming a tropical cyclone, but this looks like a very close call, and many of the same types of hazards will result from 99L at this point, regardless of further development.

Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic, x Tropical Storm Gabrielle is actually percolating just a little bit yet again today, and will continue to be watched for any signs of meaningful reorganization. A few other tropical waves are present, but conditions do not appear immediately favorable for their near-term development.

Invest 99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 99L (EIGHT) a Threat to Mexico. X-Gabrielle Percolating [Re: cieldumort]
      #94764 - Fri Sep 06 2013 03:27 PM

EIGHT has made landfall as quickly as its advisories were announced, and no further organization is anticipated. However, the depression is expected to slowly push west to southwest into eastern Mexico, wringing out heavy rains along its track, with an attendant flood threat.

A few outermost bands or loosely related seabreeze showers and storms may make their way into south Texas, but that will probably be about the extent of any near term US impact.

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