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Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Arthur Forecast Lounge
      #95029 - Sat Jun 28 2014 10:15 AM

Invest 91L is developing off the South Carolina coast and expected to drift generally southward over the weekend with a good chance for additional intensification. Initial model runs are probably only good for about 48 hours as the system develops. This is the place for your own thoughts on the movement and intensity of 91L.
ED

Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 01 2014 11:00 AM)


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95031 - Sat Jun 28 2014 12:59 PM

The sky in East Central Florida appears dusty. The dust could somehow negate any development of 91L as it traverses southward.

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95032 - Sat Jun 28 2014 09:41 PM

The models are still having some disagreement, but this is sliding between a high pressure to the north and a trough approaching, if it manages to sink south enough it'll wind up likely hanging offshore as a marine threat, and other than absolute coastal areas, you probably won't see much.

Model runs are still not that great on it, so it'll just have to be watched. Odds still favor it staying offshore, but it's not cut and dried. The coastal areas from the East coast of Florida from Central Florida up to North Carolina will want to keep an eye one it, but it's likely to not wind up as much (from observations right now). Hopefully recon flights tomorrow, and a few more model runs will start to help. But if it just sits offshore for days, it'll still drive forecasters crazy for a bit.

But the chances in the outlook are pretty spot on, pressures in the area are still very high, so near term, 24 hours or so, development is unlikely.


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doug
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95034 - Sun Jun 29 2014 09:02 AM

A little better low level definition this a.m. as it slides southward. Now under influence of warm Gulf Stream and breaking a bit with the trough. I like chances of a cyclone forming, but see little chance of significant land involvement.

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doug


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95035 - Sun Jun 29 2014 10:12 AM

Certainly has a lot better definition than it did yesterday. I did see one outlier model, HWRF, did a reverse loop over the Florida Peninsula. All of the other models were offshore at that time.
Interesting to watch.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 29 2014 10:13 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95037 - Sun Jun 29 2014 10:50 AM

As noted above, organization is much improved this morning with convection starting to consolidate around the center and banding beginning to develop on the west side of the center. All of the late-cycle models now bring the system either very close to or over east central Florida - probably as a modest tropical storm. Given the upswing in organization and the continued retrogression of the Gulf ridge, the model consensus certainly seems like a viable solution. Current motion is south, perhaps starting to lean toward south southwest at 5 or 6 knots, however, central pressure still remains high. Regarding intensification, the proximity to land is likely to be offset by the proximity to the Gulf Stream.
ED


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doug
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95041 - Sun Jun 29 2014 03:26 PM

future track: As the ULL moves westward, I am beginning to see on WV that a SE'rly flow is developing in the lower levels in its wake over the keys. The system now is dropping southward. HWRF may not be an outlier as things develop. Just speculating a bit...

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doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95042 - Sun Jun 29 2014 08:11 PM

Looking at the latest round of models it appears that the system is unlikely to make landfall over Florida, so much of the worst of the weather will be in the ocean. Some rain bands may hit the coast along Florida, but most won't be too bad. It will enhance the afternoon storms for the next day or two, though.

The stalling for a few days then scooting northeast has the biggest odds right now, but it still will need to be watched as always. It may be close for North Carolina too, in fact a bit too close, but if it manages to stay east it won't be that bad at all.

Those along the east coast from Florida to the Carolinas need to keep watch, especially from about Cape Fear, NC north through the outer banks late this week. Remember, this is only a forecast lounge guess.

Beyond North Carolina it would likely turn quickly to the east and out to sea.





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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95047 - Mon Jun 30 2014 06:37 AM

Model runs this morning match up with earlier, Euro keeps it weak until late tomorrow before gradually moving it more north-northeast(brushing in/along the outer Banks)

The GFS model moves it closer to Florida and inland, which would mean much more rainfall before heading more north-northeast (closer to the Euro).

General lounge thought this morning is that it stays east of Florida (but still close enough to bring some heavy bands of rainfall to East Central Florida, and parts of South Florida). Then starts heading toward the SC/NC outer banks, which is may clip, or possibly hit a bit inland.

Late Tomorrow is the most likely time for development, but it could be anytime between late today and Wednesday. It's currently just north of due east of Cape Canaveral and moving south or south southwest. This movement is causing havoc with general convection, and the center is still a bit tough to discern. If it can slow down enough and maintain itself near/over the Gulf Stream it has a window to intensify. Right now it's just some rain and a low pressure area amongst relatively high pressures.

For Florida it just means we may have some very heavy rains and possible flooding.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95056 - Mon Jun 30 2014 09:31 PM

The low has gone about as far south as it's going to go now, and looks like it's getting ready to switch directions, probably a bit west to north northwest. It's still a bit sheared, so I don't expect and upgrade tonight, it's holding its own, although the change in motion will likely give the convection a boost tomorrow. Upgrade probably will happen tomorrow late morning or afternoon if it doesn't fall apart.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95061 - Tue Jul 01 2014 09:53 AM

Watching Melbourne radar this morning it appears to be on a straight westward drift at this time. Good convection to the southeast side.

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 91L Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95062 - Tue Jul 01 2014 10:20 AM

The ssd satellite site is down currently, but some of the others like http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html confirm it stil drifting west as well. There is a rather impressive blowup on the south side of the center, but still nothing to write home about on the northern semi-circle, although there are signs that may be changing on the northeast side.

I doubt the hurricane center will upgrade it before recon, but they do it will be because of buoy reports and this satellite presentation.




Rb top image:


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95063 - Tue Jul 01 2014 11:04 AM

Note that SSD is back online. NHC has upgraded TD1 to TS Arthur at 01/15Z. No significant changes in the forecast track. Arthur currently drifting northwest at 2 knots and convection is well established. MLB radar suggests that the motion is likely to lean more toward a WNW movement.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 01 2014 11:18 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95064 - Tue Jul 01 2014 11:54 AM


Radar sure is interesting right now, if this center seems like it is reforming to the south near the heavy convection. (see last several frames of http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?157 ) that means tropical storm conditions a bit further south, but not convinced yet that is actually happening.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95065 - Tue Jul 01 2014 12:14 PM

Mike, I saw that swirl on WV loop down near West End. At first glance I didn't think much of it but now that you mention it, there COULD be a new low center forming. Hard to tell at this point. Something also might be visible on radar just between WPB and West End.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95066 - Tue Jul 01 2014 12:38 PM

Hard to say definitely...but I do not think the center is as far north as 27.6 either...more likely closer to 27.1

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doug


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95068 - Tue Jul 01 2014 01:54 PM

Hurricane center update at 2pm says movement is NW at 5.....I don't see that on radar at all. Are clouds moving that way or something? Melbourne radar seems to show just slightly south of due west movement if anything. Or is my mind playing tricks on me (or the radar)?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95069 - Tue Jul 01 2014 02:00 PM

I'm not sure about the northwest motion mentioned in the 2PM Advisory, Something is going on structurally with the system, although it may even out in the end, Recon should help to clarify when it gets out there. It really is getting itself together this afternoon though.

It appears to me, that it is more stationary or drifting west than anything. And I hate second guessing the NHC.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95070 - Tue Jul 01 2014 02:43 PM

This is showing what I'm curious about:



General pressures argue against the relocation idea though, it could be an eddy. So I'm really just curious what recon finds around here. But it's something to monitor, public recon data transmissions seem to be down at the moment (NHC is aware).


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95075 - Tue Jul 01 2014 05:50 PM

So the big convection ball appears to be around 27.3N 78.8W but recon is getting vortex messages at ~27.5667N 79.2833W, and pretty bumpy from the looks of it. Arthur's transformation right now is pretty interesting.

Either way recon's timing for this flight was about perfect. I hope they get a few more fixes to narrow it down a bit.



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