MikeC
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11:40 PM Update July 3, 2014
Hurricane Arthur has made landfall around 11:15PM between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, N.C. Arthur becomes the first Cat 2 Hurricane to officially make landfall along the U.S. since 2008 (Ike), and the earliest hurricane to make landfall along North Carolina in recorded history.
About an hour before landfall, NOAA Station CLKN7, located at Cape Lookout, recorded sustained winds of up to 77MPH, with ferocious gusts to 101.
Arthur remains a very dangerous and potentially deadly hurricane as it traverses the outer banks and rides the Gulf Stream up to the northeast. All interests further up and off the east coast up to and through Nova Scotia, Canada should be prepared for deteriorating conditions to come.
Ciel
9:00 PM Update 3 July 2014
Hurricane Arthur reached Category 2 strength, and is currently heading toward Beaufort/Morehead City, NC, and forecast to go out over the Outer Banks,
See media and webcam links below for more info.
11:00 AM Update 3 July 2014
Hurricane Arthur continues to strengthen this morning, and now has 90mph winds. Even more recent recon reports have shown pressure to have dropped to 977mb, so a Category 2 storm is likely when it nears the Outer Banks. Do not focus on the immediate track effects will be seen out from the center, particularly on the northeast side. And surge potential is increased.
Those in the path and watch/warning area please keep tabs with local officials and media.
6:30 AM Update 3 July 2014
Arthur was upgraded to a category 1 hurricane this morning, with winds of 75mp. Moving north to north northeast at 9. miles in hour. The forecast track takes it closest to the Outer Banks over or just east of Cape Hatteras overnight tonight. The hurricane warning was also extended northward to the NC/Virginia Border.
There is some evidence that Arthur could go slightly west of the forecast track also, so anyone in the cone should prepare.
Any deviation to the left would bring hurricane conditions to more parts of the outer banks.
The only mandatory evacuation, at this time, is for Hatteras Island.
At 6AM this morning the center of the Hurricane is nearly due east of Savannah, Georgia, and slowly accelerating more to the north. Heavy rain bands are affecting South Carolina currently.
It is possible Arthur strengthens during the day today, tonight it likely begins to hit more shear which could weaken it, this morning radar presentation is improving.
Those in the warning areas should already be prepared, and listen to local media/officials regarding any possible changes.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Arthur has gained strength today, and is very near hurricane status, and could become a hurricane later tonight. In fact the latest recon reports suggest it could possibly be upgraded sooner rather than later.
The official track was shifted slightly to the west, bringing it close enough to the North Carolina coastline to raise Hurricane Warnings for the coast of North Carolina. Hurricane warnings are now up from Surf City, NC northward to Duck, NC. and includes the Pamlico and eastern Albermarle sounds. Timing would place it nearest to North Carolina overnight Thursday into Friday as a hurricane.
Forecast models, now using NOAA Gulfstream IV data, have shifted a bit west tonight, so tonight it is looking a bit worse for the coast of North Carolina. (See the forecast lounge for model discussion)
Unfortunately, If you had plans to travel to that area for the holiday, please make other plans and listed to local officials and media regarding for evacuations or other recommendations.
Be especially aware of sound side storm surge, check out the NHC's new storm surge inundation map for a general idea of how conditions may be in the Carolinas.
More to come as needed.
Event Links:
Dare County, NC Emergency Management
Eastern Carolinas Power Outage Map (Duke Energy)
Carolina Webcams (roughly south to north)
Myrtle Beach Earthcam
Holden Beach, NC Cam
Wrightsville Beach, NC Cam
Topsail Beach, NC
Emerald Isle, NC Cam
Surf City, NC Pier Cam
Morehead City, NC Harbour Live Cam
Oriental, NC Harbor Cam
Rodanthe, NC Cam
Rodanthe, NC Cam 2 (Beach Live)
Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Cam
Hatteras Island, NC Cam
Multiple Outer Banks Traffic Cameras
Mutiple other Outer Banks Cams
Twiddy's Beach Cam OBX
Kill Devil Hills Pier Cam
Nags Head Cameras
Flhurricane recording of Outer Banks NC 12 Temporary bridge during Arthur
Flhurricane recording of Outer Banks NC 12 Canal zone during Arthur
Flhurricane recording of Surf City Pier cam during Arthur
Long term NC radar recording of Arthur approach
Long term Florida radar recording of Arthur
Mark Sudduth and Jessie Bass from HurricanteTrack will be venturing around the Outer Banks during Arthur
Flowing Wind Map
Outer Banks Connection - OBX forum
Carteret County, NC Police/Fire Scanner
Dare County, NC Police/Fire Scanner
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jul 04 2014 12:00 AM)
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MikeC
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There are mandatory evacuations for Hatteras island starting tomorrow morning.
http://darecountyem.com/mandatory-evacuation-ordered-for-hatteras-island/
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OrlandoDan
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Looks like a good strong band has come ashore near Charleston , SC. and radar loops look like Arthur is making the turn more to the Northeast now. he looks like he is following the path guidance pretty well.
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MikeC
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Recon is reporting 983mb with winds in the 80-90mph range.
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danielw
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A 983mb pressure would give a pressure/wind relationship wind speed of 92 mph at the surface.
Arthur could become a Cat 2 sometime today based on the pressure fall, proximity of the trough and dual outflow channels.
Just my two cents.
Please pay close attention to your Local NWS Office and Emergency Management officials.
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MikeC
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Added two camera records of NC 12 cameras in vulnerable spots
Flhurricane recording of Outer Banks NC 12 Temporary bridge during Arthur
Flhurricane recording of Outer Banks NC 12 Canal zone during Arthur
and a NC Radar recording
Long term NC radar recording of Arthur approach
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MikeC
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Recon just after the advisory was released found a 977mb pressure, so it continues to strengthen. Arthur right now is stronger than anything we had last year.
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Random Chaos
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I am looking at the CMISS ADT info and the raw numbers are strong:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt01L.html
Code:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 961.4mb/ 94.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 5.8
This storm looks to be strengthening. Lets hope it makes that northeastward track that is forecast, but it is running out of time. It has consistently been west of guidance all day today.
We have 3 recons that have recently been in the storm. Last central pressure reported was 977mb, but that was several hours ago, before the latest burst of organization.
Edit: left the storm at 80kt initial intensity based on the recent recon.
Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Jul 03 2014 05:26 PM)
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Random Chaos
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Radar from KLTX and KMHX are showing a closed eye now. This has occurred in the past half hour. Velocity radar is showing winds about 80 to 110 miles S of KMHX running around 100mph at 7 to 11,000 feet.
IR still showing the storm increasing organization: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rbtop-long.html
The recent GDI microwave pass from shows a good internal structure: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc14/AT...N-783W.48pc.jpg
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danielw
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Category 2 was within easy reach from the early morning pressure and satellite observations.
I don't think Category 3 will be possible due to the interaction with land. Although the topography is rather low along the western side of the track.
Above comments are based on Arthur's current status and the forecast wind speeds for the next 24-48 hours.
At the current time of 8 PM EDT Arthur is forecast to max out at 100 mph. That will make Arthur a strong Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 03 2014 08:01 PM)
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danielw
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One other note of interest. Arthur has consistently tracked to the West of most of the models. If Arthur continues on the slight west of model track there could be moderate inland flooding from rainfall as well as tideland flooding from storm surge. Go to higher ground tonigjt if possible. Just in case!
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Random Chaos
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Last couple IR passes show definite affects of the interaction with land. Radar also shows the eyewall back open on the SW quadrant. This will put a damper on any further strengthening.
IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01L/flash-rbtop-long.html
Radar:
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Latest Recon at 04/0512:50Z reported a central pressure of 975MB. Arthur is still holding at Cat II while moving through the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the early morning hours of Independence Day. Doppler radar at Morehead City indicates that the sustained winds near the surface around the eye are still about 100mph.
Update: At 04/06Z reports central pressure now down to 973MB.
ED
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Psyber
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God ED Arthur is REALLY flying. LOL by the time it hits Nova Scotia it'll be going faster north than it's spinning. 
To my untrained eye it just looks like pressure keeping most of it out to sea without much in front of it to stop/slow it down?
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Random Chaos
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Beauty shot of Arthur approaching the Carolina's yesterday:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Arthur.A2014184.1620.500m.jpg
Thumbnail of the above link:
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Random Chaos
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Psyber, what is keeping it out to sea is the front that just passed through the eastern US yesterday, The high pressure behind it is pushing Arthur east, allowing Arthur to track along and just east of the front itself.
You can see the track that Arthur wants to take by looking at the mean layer wind analysis from CMISS: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dl...zoom=&time=
You can also see the remnants of the front over PA, NY, and New England that marks a line just in front of the high pressure that is helping keep Arthur off shore: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
I have 20mph winds with gusts to 30mph where I am from the front itself; I am too far from Arthur and on the other side of the front for Arthur to be the influence for my winds.
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Psyber
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No no you misunderstand. I can see the high pressure keeping Arthur out to sea as well as all the other components keeping a ton of him off land right now.
What I'm wondering about is how fast he's going to move forward. He's up to 24MPH N/NW. There doesn't appear to be anything in front to slow him down so i'm wondering what the maximum forward speed he's going to have.
He's going to hit Nova Scotia as well as possibly parts of Newfoundland/Labrador. He'll be much weaker cyclonic wind wise but he'll still be completely saturated with water.
Big difference for us in Canada as the faster he moves, the less rain is going to be dropped over a number of areas that don't have much in the way of earth to absorb water.
Edited by Psyber (Fri Jul 04 2014 10:27 PM)
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Random Chaos
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Ah, right. Yep, I misunderstood!
Not sure how fast the storm will move. It's going at a good clip right now, and looks to be transitioning to extra tropical. The 11pm discussion I expect will talk about the transition. The system has lost much of its tropical characteristics in the past couple hours, with no discernible eye and a highly non-symmetric appearance starting to take shape.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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The latest advisory this Friday evening lists a forward speed of 31mph to the northeast - and that should just about be the top forward speed for Arthur. Later Saturday the hurricane should transition to a strong storm. I believe that the all-time record for forward speed was 60mph with the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. That hurricane was also known as the Long Island Express - for obvious reasons 
Cheers,
ED
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Psyber
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LOL I was beginning to wonder, ED. Seems weird to see a significant storm moving that fast N/NW.
60MPH though? It makes you wonder how it could maintain a steady inflow of energy at that speed or was it just captured energy with a fast high pressure system that snuck in behind and snow ploughed it?
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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