MikeC
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7:00 AM EDT 22 August 2014 Update
The inability for the wave to consolidate yesterday pushes it into another realm of uncertainty today, as the very broad system may be trying to recenter under or just east of Puerto Rico. Model runs have generally been out to sea overnight, but with a center position assumed to be barely just northeast of the Caribbean.
With still no solid development, the center relocation idea is one to watch for this morning as it would likely invalidate most of the model runs, although the may have hinted at this. This is one of several reasons why models are only perhaps good in the short term for systems that have not yet developed. Especially in cases where a dominant center cannot be maintained.
Image note: the arrow for new center is off by a bit, should be more northeast, and the center on radar is north of the island, so it's more like a wave axis south to north currently.
Recon does fly again today. to help clear things up a bit.
So in short, keep watch on this area today, it's up to 60/80% development chances. It may just remain weak its entire existence, especially if it can't manage to consolidate. Continue to watch it today, things can change from hour to hour.
Even with the center relocation, odds favor it staying east of the US currently, but that is still uncertain.
7:45 AM EDT 21 August 2014 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is at a 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and based on what the recon flight later today shows, it may or may not be upgraded today. This morning it looks a bit rough, so development may hold off for another day or two.
The system has moved a bit north in latitude and a lot of attention to model runs recently has ramped up some hype. The Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will need to watch for some development, if it develops, for tropical storm type weather.
Beyond that is pure speculation, long range model runs have had very high rates of error for this system so far (based on the standard deviations) And until the system is well established using them is not a good idea, except to watch for trends. And right now the trends have swung wildly, and probably will for another day or two.
Also what, if any, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, is a factor.
The biggest drivers of the future position of this system are the trough in the western Atlantic and the high at the time it closes by, the global models are struggling with this right now, so I'd avoid reading into them too much.
Those in the Bahamas and Southeast should watch through the weekend to see what happens on this. The trend directions, as of this morning, keep it offshore, but those trends are still with a very low confidence. See the forecast lounge for more discussion and speculation.
Original Update
A tropical wave east of the Caribbean, although likely not to develop in the short term, has a moderate chance later in the week. 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.
The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.
Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions.
More to come later, if necessary.
Another wave east of 96L also has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days, but it is not being tracked as an invest currently. Model runs will be unreliable until a few runs after it develops, so don't read into long range forecasts this early.
If named, the storm would be called Cristobal.
French Antilles Radar recording of 96L approach
Barbados Radar recording of 96L approach
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scottsvb
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Please add the radar time lapse out of Martinique. Thank you
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MikeC
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Ok,
French Antilles Radar recording of 96L approach
Barbados Radar recording of 96L approach
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scottsvb
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ty 
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MikeC
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Recon is now in the air to check out the wave, if anything comes of that we'll update here. The system is still battling dry air, and no apparent main vortex is seen on satellite. Although hints of one may be on the last few frames.
It's about half/half chance wise that recon won't be able to close off a center today, but we'll know one way or the other soon.
As for the future, and this was discussed in the lounge, odds still favor that 96L will pass near or just east of the Bahamas and then out to sea. With the current look, it's unlikely it will make hurricane strength. But that trend could change since the storm has yet to develop.
Folks in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas should be watching the system closely.
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MikeC
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Recon has found a general center, or possible multiple "centers" but not enough to consider it a depression, yet. Although it could form before the day is over, tomorrow is more likely. Recon's primary center is near 16.4N 57.7W
The system is north of where mos models initialized it, so shift things a bit more north or east. It's likely to avoid interaction with Hispaniola now. The big two global models are suggesting that it stays east of the mainland US. Until something actually forms, though, it's speculation.
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MikeC
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After looking at Puerto Rico radar and ground observations, radar shows a circulation in the mid levels to the north of the east side of Puerto Rico, but surface conditions don't show it. The other vortex, south of Puerto Rico may be more of a surface one. In short a split/unmixed system that really could go either way.
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Hawkeyewx
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The rotation north of Puerto Rico this morning is the same vort that showed up on satellite(and located by recon) yesterday east of the northern islands. Yesterday it was moving northwestward, but has bent back to the west overnight. It is at the surface, but at this point it's too weak to show up as much on surface obs.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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A well defined center is wobbling over the eastern Dominican Republic . You can detect it on the Floater and also here:
SSEC Satellite Image
ED
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