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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
Has the pattern changed; is the 'season" over?
      #95374 - Mon Nov 03 2014 01:47 PM

While it is not unheard of to get strong fronts down the Florida peninsula, the recent front which set a few record low settings and even threatened to have record low maximum temps seems to have had an impact even deep into the tropical areas where it is most likely to support development of late season tropical systems. does this suggest the door has closed to be at most only partially ajar, and no longer open?


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Storm Tracker

Reged: Sat
Posts: 324
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Has the pattern changed; is the 'season" over? [Re: doug]
      #95375 - Tue Nov 04 2014 06:49 PM

Good question . I think the earth is wobbling a bit. This might be the answer.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Has the pattern changed; is the 'season" over? [Re: doug]
      #95376 - Wed Nov 05 2014 12:35 AM

In an attempt to provide a more sensible answer, I think that its reasonable to assume that the door on this season has closed. The arctic blast of a few days ago really cooled down the SSTs in the western Atlantic below the normal threshold that would support tropical cyclogenesis. The Florida hurricane drought will set a new record in a couple of days - and that is perhaps the most significant story of this season.

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Weather Guru

Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Has the pattern changed; is the 'season" over? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95377 - Wed Nov 05 2014 11:21 AM

Yes, that is a phenomenal run and the takeaway from 2014.

Though it appears the obese dame has sang for the season, the pesky stationary front extending north into the Atlantic from Puerto Rico is forecast to weaken into a surface trough today, then a closed low could develop Thursday and possibly deepen into a subtropical low departing in the open Atlantic well east of the Bahamas by Friday. Without the early/strong fronts scouring out moisture and heat in the GOMEX and SW Atlantic, this activity could've been much closer to home.

CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster:

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