cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
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In a continuation of the incredibly active 2015 central & eastern Pacific hurricane seasons, and on the heels of Tropical Storm Ignacio, yet another vigorous tropical low, Invest 96E, is very likely to be officiated as a tropical depression or storm later today or tomorrow, and like Ignacio, this system is also forecast to track in the general direction of the Hawaiian islands.
96E is presently located near 11N 113W, with movement generally to the west, and a minimum pressure estimated to be 1008mb. Maximum sustained winds as suggested by Scatterometer and inferences are in the 25-35MPH range, with higher gusts.
This is where to post thoughts on 96Es potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
Title changed to reflect designation as TD-13E (now Jimena)
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 08 2015 11:04 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
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Jimena has become the fifth Major of the 2015 East Pac Hurricane Season.
As of 8:00 PM PDT, Jimena was centered near 12.3N 124.2W and moving west at around 12MPH. Jimena is undergoing Rapid Intensification tonight, and already the CIMSS Advanced Technique has a real-time CI value of 6.7 for a Vmax of 132 Knots, or 152 MPH.
Models expect Jimena to track west to wnw and begin heading more wnw to nw in time. Soon after Day 5 these models start diverging.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
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Hurricane Jimena is presently centered several hundred miles almost due east of the Hawaiian islands, with movement to the north-northwest. Over the past few hours it appears that Jimena could be tracking a little faster, a little stronger, and a little to the right of the official forecast, which might end up having implications for the model runs shown below (which would thus have initialized farther west, a little weaker, and perhaps a little slower than could actually be the case).
There is substantial agreement in the near-term that Jimena will continue on a NNW to NW heading, and slowly turn west before it clears the latitude of the islands. Later in the forecast period there are some indications that Jimena, or its remnant circulation, could turn back towards the islands from the north or northeast (extremely unusual, if it verifies).
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