Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Very quiet now as shear and dry Saharan air cover much of the Atlantic
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Nicholas) , Major: 309 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1363 (Michael) Major: 1363 (Michael)

General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1

Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Olaf May Impact California
      #96104 - Sun Oct 25 2015 08:18 AM

In this year of vastly above normal SSTs in the Central & Eastern Pacific, one has to reach way back to find analog years in the tropical cyclone record - and what we often see during moderate to strong El NiƱo events is a propensity for storms from the tropics to add lots of additional juice to the weather in the southwest.

And then, once in a great, great while - exceedingly rare - the available reasonably reliable database holds that a still intact tropical cyclone has actually made a direct hit or even complete landfall along the California coast. The intensities upon impact of these mere handful of California tropical cyclones going back to the mid-1800s range from Depression to the once-only Category 1 hurricane, The 1858 San Diego Hurricane - Link is to a PPT Presentation

Hurricane Olaf is presently a strong 80 knot hurricane, and has been a Major more than once in its lifetime thus far. While no model is suggesting a still-hurricane Olaf strikes the west coast, more and more model runs, including runs from the most reliable models, show a still relatively intact, albeit weakening Olaf, bringing wet and blustery weather onshore in California later in the coming week

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  

Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Olaf May Impact California [Re: cieldumort]
      #96106 - Sun Oct 25 2015 05:06 PM

Several of the 12Z runs have backed off landfalling Olaf as a bona fide tropical cyclone, in favor of either more of a hybrid or remnant low moving into the Golden State, or not at all. In fact, several of the previously more bullish models now weaken the cyclone in the face of increasing shear and ever lowering SSTs, to then take Olaf, or its remnant low, on a loopty loop, and send whatever is left back out west around the southern edge of a building ridge.

12z model runs decidedly not in the loopty camp are the GFDL and GFS, with the former sending a strong tropical storm undergoing extra-tropical transition into the coast of Northern California, and the latter sending what appears to still be a tropical depression, albeit a decoupling one, southbound just offshore of Southern California.

It is worth noting that regardless of whether Olaf is intact, or merely sheds off moisture and decays well offshore, rains forecast for midweek are likely to be enhanced, which of course is a really good thing for this part of the world right now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Topic views: 7007

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center