Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 19/03Z Invest 99L was centered near 10.3N 28.3W with winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of about 1010MB. The system was moving rapidly to the west southwest and convection seems to be displaced well to the west of the area of lowest pressure under brisk easterly windshear. SSTs are about 29C. Any additional development in the next couple of days will be on the slow side until the tight steering currents start to decrease and allow the system to become a little better organized. The Invest area should move to the west for the next few days.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 22/16Z, Invest 99L was located near 15.8N 49.8W with winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1010MB. Movement is to the west at 15 knots over SSTs of 29C. A general motion to the west is expected to continue with a slow reduction in forward speed. The system structure and convection has improved in the past 24 hours although 99L still remains disorganized. Windshear should soon begin to subside and some additional development is likely in the next few days - especially when the system nears the southern Bahamas. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this Invest area for movement more toward the west northwest as/if intensification occurs.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 23/21Z an elongated center exists from 15.2N 57W to 16N 58.5W with movement to the west. Earlier a third transient center was near 18.5N 58.5W and the HWRF may have initialized on this center. The elongated center is showing signs of improved convective organization around the southern part of the system seemingly closer to 15.5N. Easterly windshear is displacing the convection to the west of the center. Weak tropical systems with multiple centers can change their configuration in just a few hours so nothing is yet certain regarding a consolidation point for 99L. Folks in the Leeward Islands can expect strong squalls with significant rainfall later tonight through Wednesday.
ED
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Typo
Edited by Doombot! (Wed Aug 24 2016 05:07 AM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 349
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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Facebook friends already getting a bit nervous from what the models showed at 6pm news. I am trying to keep them in perspective since a lot of the models still show it doing little to nothing....but when they pop that 'cone' up there. Watching with interest here in the Plant City Area.....
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The northern area of the elongated center just passed to the west of St. Martin and they had thunderstorms with heavy rain and winds out of the southeast gusting to 48mph.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At midnight Thursday morning Invest 99L is still firing convection over two centers - one NNW of Puerto Rico and the other over the Dominican Republic. Forward motion has slowed considerably. Consolidation for the past 24 hours has been on the negative side and the structure can probably be best described as a (complimentary) mess, however, since it has slowed down it enhances the opportunity for some eventual development and consolidation to occur. A significant rainfall threat exists for portions of the Greater Antilles in the next day or two.
ED
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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3 AM EDT Update
99L now has a circular appearance and the main area of convection and highest cloud tops is located just NE of the Eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.
Checking the airport weather reports in the area there is still nothing significant in the reports. I did see a pressure of 1010mb at one of the airports but I didn't compare it to norms.
Large water vapor envelope surrounds 99L as evident in the photo below. Kind of a shield against dry air intrusion, but the mountains of Dominican Republic are still interfering with the internal structure.
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