TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic

1:55 PM EDT Update 31 August 2016
Recon flying through TD NINE have found an abundance of tropical storm force winds, and the cyclone has been named, Hermine, the eighth named cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

8:45 PM EDT Update 30 August 2016
In Florida, even though NINE is "only" a Tropical Depression, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line.

"A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. "

The fact that a Hurricane Watch has been issued while this tropical cyclone does not yet even have a name is indeed noteworthy, and should be a bell ringer that there is considerable concern with the potential for NINE to become a serious system.

Meanwhile, out in the central Pacific, Hawaii County is now under a Hurricane Warning. "A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."

Dangerous Major Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are basically headed due west tonight, in Hawaii's direction.

9:45 AM EDT Update 29 August 2016
Tropical Storm watches are now up for TD#8 in North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. TD#8 may become a Tropical Storm today as shear is relaxing (The Upper Level low that has been shearing this system and TD#9 is starting to fall apart). The system is forecast to stay offshore, but most of heavy convection is on the northwest side, which would take the weather over land tomorrow.

TD#9 is looking better defined this morning, it's window to develop is between today and Wednesday. Those along the Gulf coast particularly in the Big Bend and Florida either side of there should continue to watch it closely. No watches or warnings are up for there yet, and probably won't be until late tomorrow or Wednesday.

7:50PM EDT Update 28 August 2016
99L has become Tropical Depression #9, depending on if 8 gets named or not, the next name is Hermine, then Ian. The forecast track is highly uncertain and intensity and exact location are still very much fluid. It will likely have time to linger in the gulf for the next several days and potentially strengthen, there are a few negative factors such as shear that may keep it in check, but is countered by extremely warm water temperatures in the Gulf. Those along the west coast of Florida into the northern Gulf coast need to keep very close watch over the next few days.When the system enters the Gulf proper and clears the keys/Cuba we may have a better idea how and where the system will go, if the system moves. If it stalls out, it makes it a lot more difficult, the keeps it into the Gulf until Friday, so that is very much a possibility. With a better center fix models tomorrow should have a slightly better idea of the future, but still probably not enough with the slow motion of the system predicted.

Be aware for potentially rapid changes in the forecast this week.

11AM Update 28 August 2016
91L has become Tropical Depression Eight and is likely to form into Tropical Storm Hermine later today. Tropical Storm watches may be up for the Carolinas later today, but the forecast track keeps it just east of the Outer Banks.

99L Still has a chance to form tomorrow night or later in the week in the Gulf, the next name beyond Hermine is Ian. The system is stilll elongated and disorganized. Any organization with it will be slow. The name after Ian is Julia. The area north of Tampa, Big Bend and west along the Northern Gulf coast probably needs to watch it the closest.

Activity in the tropics will be in overdrive the next two weeks or so, including Hawaii which may be impacted by one or two storms.

Recon is scheduled to fly both TD#8 and 99L today. I suspect it'll be upgraded to Hermine when recon gets there.

Original Update

The most significant changes from this time yesterday is a necessary mention of Hawaii, and increased attention to some features closer to the lower 48, that were not getting much more than a second look before.

Out in the eastern to central Pacific, one Invest, one Tropical Storm and one Hurricane all have trajectories heading towards the Hawaiian islands. Possibly the most significant of these three is Hurricane Lester, that also has some potential for becoming an annular tropical cyclone. Closest to the island chain are an impressive, presently unnumbered Invest, and a strong Tropical Storm, Madeline. Both of these features could produce flooding rains on some or all of the islands.

Closest to Florida, Invest 99L continues to be earning more internet memes than praise, but the fact is, this tropical wave was as intense as we ever see them without being given a name, and then just had the misfortune of running into one obstacle after another, presently being some unforeseen moderately strong northerly shear. Once again, development, interrupted. IF this shear relaxes in time, then the most recent model runs could verify (a good guess is 50-50, but they have had more than their fair share of #99Lproblems).

It is worth noting that all of the most reliable tropical cyclone genesis models (GFS, , UKMET), as well as several lesser ones, develop this area of low pressure into a nameable tropical cyclone once in the Gulf. Given 99L's tenacity, it may be best not to crack any more jokes.

Going further down the list, Invest 91L has improved structurally and a little bit so convectively overnight, with more showers and a few thunderstorms firing up within its center of circulation. Given that a reasonably well-defined surface circ already exists, if convection holds and builds, it might actually be more than a mere rain-maker. Models that had strongly advertised either a southwest or northeast course have been wrong so far, but of course, with 91L tracking more to its west-northwest. Interests along the Carolinas and out to sea from there may want to begin treating 91L as if it was already a depression.

Now in the far northwest Gulf of Mexico, a trof of low pressure with an associated wave pouch, not yet having been given an Invest tag, has been percolating more just offshore overnight. This Low is sliding southwest along the Texas coast. The surface trough runs the Texas coast from near 29N 95W along 27N 94W to 24N 88W. A core of breezy moderate to heavy showers accompanies this feature, and there is a non-negligible chance for some additional development.

Out at sea, Gaston is a strengthening hurricane, and could become the Atlantic's first Major of this year within 48 hours.

Hawaii - Trop Storm Madeline Lounge

Hawaii - Hur Lester Forecast Lounge

Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

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