cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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1:55 PM EDT Update 31 August 2016
Recon flying through TD NINE have found an abundance of tropical storm force winds, and the cyclone has been named, Hermine, the eighth named cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
8:45 PM EDT Update 30 August 2016
In Florida, even though NINE is "only" a Tropical Depression, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for west of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line.
"A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. "
The fact that a Hurricane Watch has been issued while this tropical cyclone does not yet even have a name is indeed noteworthy, and should be a bell ringer that there is considerable concern with the potential for NINE to become a serious system.
Meanwhile, out in the central Pacific, Hawaii County is now under a Hurricane Warning. "A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."
Dangerous Major Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are basically headed due west tonight, in Hawaii's direction.

9:45 AM EDT Update 29 August 2016
Tropical Storm watches are now up for TD#8 in North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. TD#8 may become a Tropical Storm today as shear is relaxing (The Upper Level low that has been shearing this system and TD#9 is starting to fall apart). The system is forecast to stay offshore, but most of heavy convection is on the northwest side, which would take the weather over land tomorrow.
TD#9 is looking better defined this morning, it's window to develop is between today and Wednesday. Those along the Gulf coast particularly in the Big Bend and Florida either side of there should continue to watch it closely. No watches or warnings are up for there yet, and probably won't be until late tomorrow or Wednesday.
7:50PM EDT Update 28 August 2016
99L has become Tropical Depression #9, depending on if 8 gets named or not, the next name is Hermine, then Ian. The forecast track is highly uncertain and intensity and exact location are still very much fluid. It will likely have time to linger in the gulf for the next several days and potentially strengthen, there are a few negative factors such as shear that may keep it in check, but is countered by extremely warm water temperatures in the Gulf. Those along the west coast of Florida into the northern Gulf coast need to keep very close watch over the next few days.When the system enters the Gulf proper and clears the keys/Cuba we may have a better idea how and where the system will go, if the system moves. If it stalls out, it makes it a lot more difficult, the keeps it into the Gulf until Friday, so that is very much a possibility. With a better center fix models tomorrow should have a slightly better idea of the future, but still probably not enough with the slow motion of the system predicted.
Be aware for potentially rapid changes in the forecast this week.
11AM Update 28 August 2016
91L has become Tropical Depression Eight and is likely to form into Tropical Storm Hermine later today. Tropical Storm watches may be up for the Carolinas later today, but the forecast track keeps it just east of the Outer Banks.
99L Still has a chance to form tomorrow night or later in the week in the Gulf, the next name beyond Hermine is Ian. The system is stilll elongated and disorganized. Any organization with it will be slow. The name after Ian is Julia. The area north of Tampa, Big Bend and west along the Northern Gulf coast probably needs to watch it the closest.
Activity in the tropics will be in overdrive the next two weeks or so, including Hawaii which may be impacted by one or two storms.

Recon is scheduled to fly both TD#8 and 99L today. I suspect it'll be upgraded to Hermine when recon gets there.
Original Update

The most significant changes from this time yesterday is a necessary mention of Hawaii, and increased attention to some features closer to the lower 48, that were not getting much more than a second look before.
Out in the eastern to central Pacific, one Invest, one Tropical Storm and one Hurricane all have trajectories heading towards the Hawaiian islands. Possibly the most significant of these three is Hurricane Lester, that also has some potential for becoming an annular tropical cyclone. Closest to the island chain are an impressive, presently unnumbered Invest, and a strong Tropical Storm, Madeline. Both of these features could produce flooding rains on some or all of the islands.
Closest to Florida, Invest 99L continues to be earning more internet memes than praise, but the fact is, this tropical wave was as intense as we ever see them without being given a name, and then just had the misfortune of running into one obstacle after another, presently being some unforeseen moderately strong northerly shear. Once again, development, interrupted. IF this shear relaxes in time, then the most recent model runs could verify (a good guess is 50-50, but they have had more than their fair share of #99Lproblems).
It is worth noting that all of the most reliable tropical cyclone genesis models (GFS, , UKMET), as well as several lesser ones, develop this area of low pressure into a nameable tropical cyclone once in the Gulf. Given 99L's tenacity, it may be best not to crack any more jokes.
Going further down the list, Invest 91L has improved structurally and a little bit so convectively overnight, with more showers and a few thunderstorms firing up within its center of circulation. Given that a reasonably well-defined surface circ already exists, if convection holds and builds, it might actually be more than a mere rain-maker. Models that had strongly advertised either a southwest or northeast course have been wrong so far, but of course, with 91L tracking more to its west-northwest. Interests along the Carolinas and out to sea from there may want to begin treating 91L as if it was already a depression.
Now in the far northwest Gulf of Mexico, a trof of low pressure with an associated wave pouch, not yet having been given an Invest tag, has been percolating more just offshore overnight. This Low is sliding southwest along the Texas coast. The surface trough runs the Texas coast from near 29N 95W along 27N 94W to 24N 88W. A core of breezy moderate to heavy showers accompanies this feature, and there is a non-negligible chance for some additional development.
Out at sea, Gaston is a strengthening hurricane, and could become the Atlantic's first Major of this year within 48 hours.
Hawaii - Trop Storm Madeline Lounge
Hawaii - Hur Lester Forecast Lounge
Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD#9
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of TD#9
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L
Tropical Depression 8) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of TD#8
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of TD#8
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#8
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Charleston, SC Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Wilmington, NC Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Morehead City, NC Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Area Forecast Discussions:
Charleston, SC -
Wilmington, NC -
Morehead City, NC -
Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA
Power Outage Maps:
South Carolina Power Outage Map
North Carolina Power Outage Map
Virginia Power Outage Map
Gaston Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gaston
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Gaston
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Invest 92L (Far East Atlantic) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 92L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Northeast Gulf Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
New Orleans -
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
Panhandle/Tallahassee -
Tampa/West Central Florida
Tampa Area Media:
Bay News 9
WFLA News 8 (NBC)
Bay Action News (ABC)
WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)
My Fox Tampa Bay
WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota
Tampa Bay Times
Tampa Bay Online
Sarasota Herald Tribune
970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio
Florida Power Outage Maps
Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida
Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)
Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map
Tampa Electric Outage Map
JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map
Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)
Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)
Lakeland Electric Outage Map
Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach
Hawaii Storm Info
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Radar:
South Shore Big Island, HI Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Kohala, HI (Big Island) Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Molokai, HI (Maui/Oahu) Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Kauai, HI Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
River/Stream Gauges in Hawaii
Hawaii Power Outage Map
Hawaiian Media:
TV:
KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)
KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)
Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)
Newspaper:
Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)
Hawaii Tribune-Herald
Maui News
Honolulu Star Advertiser
Other:
Big Island News Now
Hawaii Tracker Big Island News
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SouthGAwx
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Georgia
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As expected... From s Special Tropical Weather Outlook.
Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Opened up the local contions thread for 99L and whatever it becomes since it's south of the Keys now and beginning to impact Florida to some degree. http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=96685&page=0&vc=#Post96685
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MikeC
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The hurricane center upped the development chances for 99L back to 80% in the next 5 days and 60% in the next 48 hours, which seems reasonable since the storm will be entering the Gulf tomorrow. Right now it has a decent presentation on radar and could form into a depression tomorrow or Tuesday. The west coast of Florida and Northeast Gulf coast needs to continue to watch it very closely.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon is en route to both 99L and TD#8 right now. The AF plane is over TD#8 now, the NOAA plane in still on its way, but not far to go.
99L is dropping a bit WSW and attempting to tighten, so it may be going for a closed low run.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon finding some 37 knot winds along the west side of 99L already, I wonder if it can close off a circulation, though (Doubtful?). If it does may be a TD or TS very soon.
TD#8's getting all the convection it developed earlier sheared off toward the northwest.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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#99L Vort
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 20:18Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 20:00:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°44'N 81°41'W (23.7333N 81.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 57 statute miles (93 km) to the S (174°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 15kts (From the NE at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 29°C (84°F)
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 1,000 feet
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight L
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MikeC
Admin
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I step away for several hours, and we have another tropical depression. Still a boatload of uncertainty as to exact track and intensity, but it did surprise me a bit by developing today, I was thinking it wouldn't get going until it cleared the Florida Straits. Either way, expect rapid changes potentially. Hopefully models will now get a little more consistent with a developed circulation.
On the flipside, TD#8 has lost a lot of its convection and may die out.
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MikeC
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On radar and Satellite (and a few recon fixes) it appears TD#9 shifted a bit southwest toward Cuba, almost, but not quite onshore, that movement seems to have stopped now, but it opens up tomorrow for either getting stronger or just holding its own. Tonight it's getting a bit of northerly shear which will probably keep in in check part of tomorrow also.
The official forecast is a 40mph tropical storm tomorrow around 5PM, I'm curious how it will do tomorrow. Monday and Tuesday will be the days of figuring, wednesday we should have a good idea where it's going, Thursday is likely landfall day.
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jdc0616
Registered User
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Loc: Clermont, Florida
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Why do you have to put that last sentence in telling us to be aware of the changes in this system? It's unnecessary. I'm sure everyone here already knows that when an unpredictable system like this one moves into the Gulf, it means trouble and deserves constant attention.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Gaston is mostly stationary and looks very healthy for a hurricane, with a very solid eye.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Why do you have to put that last sentence in telling us to be aware of the changes in this system? It's unnecessary. I'm sure everyone here already knows that when an unpredictable system like this one moves into the Gulf, it means trouble and deserves constant attention.
Typically on the front page we reiterate things since events like this bring a lot of new people or random people just searching for basic info, it's also why we usually keep the model runs and speculation in the forecast lounge. If you've followed it for a while you know not to take a doomsday model runs seriously (or inversely one that shows it weak without consistency), but watch for the trends and persistence. Sometimes things are a bit more clear, slow moving systems, or generally disorganized ones tend not to be. It's never a guarantee, but confidence levels do change. And confidence with TD#9 is just lower than usual, unless you were following closely you may not know that.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Newly formed tropical systems are especially uncertain both in intensity and track. Until a system has sustained tropical storm strength for at least 12 hours I generally throw out most forecasts - this is because a well defined closed system is needed for the model initialization.
Stating that rapid changes are possible is necessary to indicate the uncertainty in this forecast - and important to note as when any system approaches the US mainland this site gets a large uptick in visitors that are not weather geeks like many of us, and are not familiar with storms.
The risk is in dismissing a system "it's only forecast to be a tropical storm" when the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. Even the states "the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than usual for this system."
This storm has to traverse a high shear environment over the next day or so, which the is indicating could end the system before it becomes a threat to land. If it survives, we could be looking at a tropical storm or hurricane at landfall (GFDL shows a tropical storm; HWRF shows a category 1 hurricane). It's over the Gulf, and that is always a good breeding ground for tropical systems.
Give it a 12-18 hours (tropical storm strength + 12 hours) and we should get a better idea of what the system will do.
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MikeC
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Overnight TD#9 stayed a bit weak and rode westward just north of the Cuban coastline, this morning convection seems to be retiring near the center that has begun to move away from Cuba to the west. Today is likely it just trying to hold together, and I think it'll be successful, tomorrow if any significant strengthening happens, would be the day (into Wednesday) beyond that is when the pattern should shift enough for some definitive movement somewhere. Those along the northeastern Gulf and west coast of Florida should continue to watch it.
There is some more speculation in the Lounge about where/when.
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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It appears that big, dry, shearing upper trough pushing eastward across the gulf is not going to give TD9 much of a window for strengthening.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looking at the visible satellite this morning it's seems a bit better organized than I expected this morning, although still mostly convection on the south side. It's in between the area in the NW gulf and the ULL off the South Carolina coastline, so it's in bit of a neutral zone shear wise. I suspect it'll hold its own today. I don't see the area in the trough doing much to TD#9 it won't help it develop, but I don't think it's a huge negative factor either. It's not close enough nor strong enough. The upper high developing over TD#9 is probably the most positive factor. 's forecast is probably good with a bit of waver on the intensity (either way) toward wed/thursday.
The depression is just in really mixed conditions, so I think it'll just limit strengthening, but not stop it.. It does appear healthier than I expected it would be this morning. Madeline over in the Central Pacific is also better than I expected this morning, we could have two systems landfalling at more or less the same time, Gulf and Hawaii.
Tropical Storm watches are now up for TD#8 in North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet. TD#8 may become a Tropical Storm today as shear is relaxing (The Upper Level low that has been shearing this system and TD#9 is starting to fall apart). The system is forecast to stay offshore, but most of heavy convection is on the northwest side, which would take the weather over land tomorrow.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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ASCAT pass of TD#9 has a pretty clear center now, it should be interesting to see what recon finds in a bit.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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It's a very busy day today for weather reconnaissance:
*In the Central Pacific, Powerful Cat 2 Hurricane Madeline
*In the East Pac, Major Hurricane Lester
*In the Gulf of Mexico, TD NINE
*Off the Carolinas, TD EIGHT
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gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
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Here in Gainesville, we're starting to feel TD#9. Since about 2:00 p.m. there have been some fast-moving heavy showers with thunder, which is much different from the weather we've been having here lately. I see from the radar recording that it is most likely associated with TD#9. I'm a little surprised to see the effects so far north at this time.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm or possibly hurricane watches may be up for part of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow, forecast is for a Tropical storm at landfall, and with things how they are currently, seems to be a good call.
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