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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Hermine and Storm Surge
      #96813 - Wed Aug 31 2016 02:09 PM

2:00PM EDT Update 3 September 2016

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the
next few hours in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours
from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water.

Promptly follow all instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and
Bridgeport, Connecticut.


11:30AM EDT Update 2 September 2016
Hermine is moving rapidly northeast just inside the coast of Georgia, expected to slow down offshore of Carolina and become a hurricane and only go through a partial extratropical transition. It likely will sit offshore of Delware/New Jersey for a bit, bringing lots of surge to parts of the area. Tropical Storm watches have been extended all the way to Rhode Island. Hermine is going to affect nearly the entire east coast's labor day weekend.

1:30AM EDT Update 2 September 2016
Hermine has made landfall just east of St. Marks, breaking the nearly 11 year span of no landfalling hurricanes in Florida.

3:00PM Update 1 September 2016
Hermine has now reached hurricane status based on recon reports.

Let us know conditions in your area here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=96502&gonew=1#UNREAD



2:30PM Update 1 September 2016
Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended southward to Englewood (S. of Tampa) on the west coast of Florida, and south to the Volusia/Flagler Line on the east coast due to the large tropical storm force windfield to the south and east of Hermine.

7AM Update 1 September 2016
Tropical Storm Hermine is nearing hurricane strength this morning based on recent recon reports of 994mb and 70 knot winds just east of the center at flight level.

The landfall is forecast for near Apalachee bay around 1AM this morning, this is a slight shift east from last night. Considering most of the heavy convection and wind is on the east side of the system.



Hurricane Warnings are up for the Panhandle, but it also important to note the Tropical Storm warnings on the east coast Marineland to South Santee River and the watches north of that to Surf City, NC. Hermine could be affecting a lot of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastlines with rain, wind, and some surge.

11PM Update 31 August 2016
Hermine has strengthened a bit faster than anticipated and now has 60mph winds, and is now forecast to be a hurricane at landfall. If it does so it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in nearly 11 years. Landfall is forecast to be near Alligator Point in the Panhandle pre dawn Friday morning, with most of the rain and wind to the east and south.

Hurricane Warnings are now up
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach
Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Florida Emergency management: http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp

Let us know what you are seeing from Hermine in your area in this thread.

Original Update
Tropical Depression 9, which went on for days as 99L before then has now become Tropical Storm Hermine.
Hurricane Watches are in effect for...Anclote River to Indian Pass as it is still possible for Hermine to briefly become a hurricane before landfall
Tropical Storm Warnings Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line
Tropical Storm Watches along the east coast: Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Some of the top threats include heavy rain, storm surge near and east of where the storm makes landfall, and short lived tornadoes. Hermine is a VERY large storm, but not strong, and is partly why it has been so slow to get organized. Points beyond landfall in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic warrant attention also.

More to come soon..

Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is on the way to Florida to investigate the landfall, follow along at


Hermine Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Hermine
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hermine


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hermine (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hermine (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Hermine

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hermine
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hermine -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Portland, ME Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map


Gaston Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gaston
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



92L Event Related Links


float10latest.gif stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2016&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio


Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach

Hawaii Storm Info

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Radar:


South Shore Big Island, HI Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Kohala, HI (Big Island) Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Molokai, HI (Maui/Oahu) Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Kauai, HI Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

River/Stream Gauges in Hawaii

Hawaii Power Outage Map

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Other:

Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96821 - Wed Aug 31 2016 06:49 PM

Recon has shown a center reformation was likely and slightly stronger winds, Hermine is a very large system so any strength changes will likely take a while, unless the system gets vertically stacked, so too rapid of a change isn't likely. Landfall still looks likely late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Last recon vortex message has it down to 1002mb, and 52knot flight level winds, so surface wind may go up to 50MPH at 8PM.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96822 - Wed Aug 31 2016 07:24 PM

Recon's last pass found pressures down to 1000 mb,

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96825 - Wed Aug 31 2016 08:00 PM

The NOAA recon is on its way back the USAF recon plane took off recently and appears to be aborting and returning to base (mechanical problems?)

Update: Recon is back on the way.


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chase 22
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96827 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:16 PM

Looks like a huge jump to the east over the past few hours. I'm definitely interested to see how that plays out in future forecast tracks. I know portions of Pinellas County have already received over 10" today, and we're just getting started.

--------------------
Matt


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Robert e p
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: chase 22]
      #96830 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:44 PM

I'm glad it wasn't just me. I thought I was seeing things.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96831 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:57 PM

As for location and direction, Hermine's center of circulation appears to be oval in shape, with what could be two primary lobes rotating about a mean center. The center itself may be rotating about its own axis, and the individual lobes also have been creating additional difficulty nailing down the exact center location, and motion. Apparent jumps in the center may be as much an illusion created by the elongated, multi-lobed nature of Hermine's core, as that of it trying to align with the deepest convection and mid-level circ. - Until this clears up, it may be helpful to focus on the overall motion of the entire system to determine its direction.

As for intensity, Hermine's intensification is running ahead of schedule. Official NHC forecast calls for 60MPH at 4PM CDT Thursday, but it is already looking likely that we see 60 or even higher by the 10PM advisory tonight. TS winds are very heavily weighted to the south to east regions of the storm, and extend well out from the center. Storm surge has already started on Cedar Key, and much of the state may experience higher surge totals than presently forecast, given the large expanse of winds blowing into the progressively shallower and shallower shore, not to mention the increasing risk of a hurricane prior to landfall.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #96832 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:21 PM

Latest recon fix is at 25.7N 87.0W at 999mb, so strengthening some, it looks really odd on sat photos, but it reformed east and is now moving north according to recon, that or the center lobe is looping around. I doubt the forecast track changes all that much at 11. Likely 999mb with 55mph winds.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96835 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:10 PM

Well it went to 60 based on a later recon an down to 998mb, which is a drop of 6mb since 5pm, so it's stronger, surge estimates will surely go up and a hurricane warning is now up for the area.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96842 - Thu Sep 01 2016 06:00 AM

It will be interesting to see if Hermine behaves anything like the Rainfall Potential graphic from the NHC. There is a huge amount of convection well south of the center. More south than the graphic predicts.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96843 - Thu Sep 01 2016 06:52 AM

Latest recon pass found 994mb of pressure, Hermine may be getting very close to hurricane strength soon.

Flight level winds of 70knots east of the center,so could be raised to 65 or 70mph for surface winds at the 8AM advisory.


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EMZelaya
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96844 - Thu Sep 01 2016 07:50 AM

Anyone else feel the track is wrong? The northern most area of the storm has strongest winds and lowest pressure east of the "Center of circulation". There is also a cold front moving in that is in the projected north track. Something does not seem right....

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: EMZelaya]
      #96845 - Thu Sep 01 2016 07:54 AM

993mb now, with signs an eyewall is starting to form, and it's moving a bit more north northeast and starting to acceelerate. Still really bay on the west and southwest sides, but the trough is really venting it, and probably helping the winds accelerate. It's set up to become a big storm when it gets off the mid atlantic, it's never been all that organized, but the core energy was always good. It'll probably have more impacts on the SE/Mid Atlantic than many expected.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96847 - Thu Sep 01 2016 09:22 AM

Mark Sudduth set up a storm surge camera in St. Marks, FL time lapse recording http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?221

Live stream of it http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hbt4W9peBL...=20160901060821


St. Marks got a large storm surge from Dennis in 2005, and that made landfall closer to Pensacola, approximately got up to where the "3" is in the camera shot.


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sfalcon
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: chase 22]
      #96858 - Thu Sep 01 2016 01:11 PM


Honeymoon Island WebCam in Dunedin FL

http://visitdunedinfl.com/video2.php


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dolfinatic
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96859 - Thu Sep 01 2016 01:27 PM

Warnings have been extended southward. 000
WTNT34 KNHC 011713
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

CORRECTED TO REPLACE ARIPEKA WITH LONGBOAT KEY IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF STORM SURGE HAZARD STATEMENT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward along the
west coast of Florida to Englewood, including the greater Tampa/St.
Petersburg area, and southward along the east coast of Florida to
the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and
northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96867 - Thu Sep 01 2016 02:41 PM

Added several recordings for Hermine on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96868 - Thu Sep 01 2016 03:22 PM

Storm Surge is very apparant at Cedar Key on the Hurricantrack camera http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF

Recon is finding higher winds that 75 now.


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96871 - Thu Sep 01 2016 04:09 PM

Today is the first day that there have been multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time since Sept 10, 2012, per Phil Klotzbach - another verification that 2016 is the busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season since that year.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/771430642324123648


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #96875 - Thu Sep 01 2016 05:13 PM

NHC Key Messages Tonight

Noteworthy: Lesson learned from Superstorm Sandy (Item #4).




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