MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
SFMR just got 143kt surface winds. Category 5 speeds. Waiting for to make it official.
That looks like it was flagged as a bad reading, but it still seems likely to hit 5 overnight if no replacement cycles start before then.
edit: looks like temp/humidity was flagged, not the wind.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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CIMSS Raw T at 7.2
Clean 165 MPH SFMR estimate
Still intensifying, extremely dangerous. Likely the Atlantic's first Cat 5 since 2007's Felix.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Watching satellite loops closely, it still is moving west southwest, and has picked up a bit of forward speed tonight. Turn toward the north most likely will happen tomorrow afternoon or evening.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Motion has been more southwest than wsw the last few hours, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Mike, take a look at CIMSS mean layer steering currents - for <940mb storms it looses most of the westerly motion.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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We have not seen a Fix like this out of an Atlantic basin recon mission in a very, very long time
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 1:56Z
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 1:25:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°20'N 72°04'W (13.3333N 72.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 150 statute miles (241 km) to the WNW (292°) from Oranjestad, Aruba (Netherlands).
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the W (277°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,094m (10,151ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Well that ramped up quickly! Matt pushed thru the wind shear without losing any stream at all. And now finds itself in a stable environment which is causing it to spin up to serious levels. The projected path is an odd one. 'Canes rarely move due any direction, especially N over long periods of time. If the ridge to the east weakness Matt move NE runs into the Bahamas and out to sea never to be heard from again. But if the H sets up shop then he'll push west... and I don't like the look of that at all.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Models trends have been to the east since the westernmost shift of the early this morning, Matthew appears to be moving due west and the gradual turn north is expected within the next 12 hours. The track seems good, forecast lounge discusses the long range more, but in summary the consensus keeps it just offshore of the US, but is not as good for the Bahamas. Impacts on Florida and the Southeast cannot be ruled out, however.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Beyond that today we are watching for when it starts to gain more latitude (good west benchmark is what it's doing when it reaches 74W), and how fast its moving to see how much Jamaica winds up with. Slower forward speed would cloud things, faster forward speed would make the models generally more reliable.
The eye is going through replacement cycles so it's a bit ragged, and be careful about trying to use it to determine movement direction while doing so, as it may wobble or give appearances, a series of 3 or more recon fixes would likely be the best indicator for motion.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I've been out most of the day, models seem to be even more split in the long range with the ensembles spreading more beyond 4 days, right now (which means no real confidence on where Matthew may go). Matthew is currently doing a cyclonic loop moving south, east, and back around, which is an interesting stall, when it resumes a distinct, non-looping motion is when we'll see which of the models has a better handle on it (and if any of them actually do).
Recon is suggesting its getting its act together again. 939mb
Zoomed visible sat loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/...s_to_display=20
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 54
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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I have a quote on my office door, that while it wasn't meant to apply to meteorological models, it does seem to apply here: All models are wrong, but some models are useful! I've got allot of respect for those folks that by gut and experience, can tweeze out the useful information while looking through the static. The staff have had a rough year of trying to look through the static to glean out the useful tidbits! I believe by tomorrow night we will start to see much clearer. I heard this morning that all NWS offices east of the Mississippi river were doubling the releases of sounding balloons to ever 6 hours, instead of every 12 to get a better handle on how the trough was going to set up.
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2021 forecast 18-10-5; 18-7-4 as of 9/26
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The GOES-13 satellite that provides a lot of the sat photos for the floater images of Matthew is having an outage now, recon also had to abort the mission due to mechanical failures . GOES-15 has a very very edge view of Matthew without much detail, but it'll be an interesting semi-blind night to determine if motion started back up if GOES-13 doesn't come back up soon.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Very, very disconcerting. Why is this hugely important satellite having issues at this time?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Per ESPC:
*Topic:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Data Outage
*Date/Time**Issued:*October 2, 2016 0035Z
*Product(s) or Data Impacted: ***GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products
*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*October 1, 2016 2315Z **
*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD
*Length of Outage: *TBD
*Details/Specifics of Change:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) is currently
experiencing an anomaly that prevents all data from being received at
ESPC. Engineers have been notified.
*Contact Information for Further Information:* ESPC Operations at
ESPCOperations@noaa.gov at 301-817-3880**
*Web Site(s) for applicable information:* N/A
This message was sent by ESPC.Notification@noaa.gov
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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You can use GOES 15 (West) imagery
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestfullir.html
Click the area where Matthew is at, very warped and very infrequent frames from that angle, but at least it is something. (Check timestamps)
Microwave from the does show the eyewall replacement happening.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Nasa site seems to be getting imagery back in ow, from 9:45PM EDT Northwest motion now.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 02/05Z Matthew has taken a track almost due west for the past few hours. That ridge to its north is not breaking down as quickly as anticipated. Certainly an interesting storm to track.
ED
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CaymanBrac
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
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Hello, You guys have a great site here... I live on Cayman Brac, just a little west of Matthew's track. What's your thoughts on that new western movement??
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Way too soon to tell. Hurricanes tend to wobble, "stair step", loop and even move in odd ways when the steering currents are weak.
Also, the last few frames show at least some northerly component.
Edited by Doombot! (Sun Oct 02 2016 08:01 AM)
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CaymanBrac
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
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Thanks for the information. Everyone here on Cayman Brac are quite concerned. As some may remember, we had a hurricane called "Paloma" that hit the Brac Nov. 8th 2008, it was also a Category 4 with cat 5 in gusts. Damages to Cayman Brac and Little Cayman from Hurricane Paloma' amounted to $154.4 million. So we are all a bit on edge about this hurricane. Please' if you guys will, keep me posted on your thoughts.. Thanks again!
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