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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 86 (Nicholas) , Major: 101 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1155 (Michael) Major: 1155 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97123 - Sun Oct 02 2016 08:33 AM

Today I'm looking to see where it is when it hits 15.0 N latitude, if it gets there further west than forecast, partially west or on 75W the risk for the Southeast (and Jamaica) increases. Regardless much of the convection is on the east side of the storm, so Haiti (and to some degree the Dominican republic) are going to get a lot of it, even if the core stays west of land there.

Recon's position this morning indicate more of a slow west northwest motion than northwest so far. Approx 14.0N 74.5W

On Satellite Long term see http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...&map=county

The motion does seem solidly northwest though, but recon has found no hint of a more northerly turn yet.


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97124 - Sun Oct 02 2016 09:19 AM

Yes, thanks for the URL.. I can see that WNW movement.

I was up at 5 am checking on it's movement, when I saw that NOAA said (NW), that's when I became a bit concerned.. I feel bad for anyone in this ones path.. If you see anything else that you think may concern me, let me know. I'll be keeping this page open, and checking it..

Thanks for keeping me posted.

Linda.
Cayman Brac
Lat 19.7235° N
Long 79.8017° W


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97126 - Sun Oct 02 2016 11:14 AM

The Hurricane Center did not shift the cone at all, just the position, I'm not so sure the east of north motion will happen in the near term because of how the ridge is performing, but overall there is a great deal of uncertainty even in the near term with the slow movement of the storm. (Currently moving west) At the current pace it'll cross 75W before it hits 14N easily, and Jamaica may be in for more than the track map implies.

This big of a storm moving this slow will raise blood pressures for sure, especially with the type of impacts it can have.


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97127 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:02 PM

Moving west isn't, at all what I want to see... Now I am really worried..

I do not ever want to see another Cat 4 hurricane hit Cayman Brac again. Paloma really did a number on the Brac.
There wasn't a lot of media coverage at all. The Government shut this little Island down for 1 year.. If you didn't live or work here, you didn't come here.

Here's a good friend of mine's website. https://www.flickr.com/photos/courtneyplatt/albums/72157609576323778/page1 Shows a lot of the devastation that Paloma caused. The population here on the Brac is only around 1500, about 80% of all homes and businesses lost most or all of their roofs, and around 60% of complete roofs and homes just blew away. Our home was breached by a huge pine tree, we lost half the back, and west side of our home, and all the roof, and my husband and I were both in the house when it was blowing away around us..

95% of all power polls when down, the whole Island was on generators for 4 months. Every leaf of every tree was gone, the trees looked like they had been chopped off at around 14 ft high. It took a year for Electric Power to be completely restored after Poaloma hit here.

Just 3 months before Paloma, Aug 30, 2008 Hurricane Gustav hit the Brac at a Category 3.. Wow' do I have stories to tell...

No, I never want to see another hurricane, ever..

Thanks so much for the updates... Keep them coming..

Linda!

Edited by CaymanBrac (Sun Oct 02 2016 12:06 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97128 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:07 PM

Even with a slow west northwest drift, I haven't seen any evidence or models that the Caymans are in play for a major hit here. Keep a close eye and make your usual hurricane preparations...At this point, nothing is pointing to anything but an eventual northward trek toward the Bahamas...THEY and Jamaica are the ones needing immediate preparations for a major storm.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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CaymanBrac
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #97130 - Sun Oct 02 2016 12:27 PM

Yeah... Thank you, I really appreciate the update.

I keep hearing Hurricane Matthew will turn totally north at some point, but an interesting question would be (When)?

I do hope it turns sooner than later. And I do know just how unpredictable these storms can be., and this ones been a tricky one.

Thanks again!
Linda


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: CaymanBrac]
      #97132 - Sun Oct 02 2016 01:40 PM

Recon passes are showing the system is recovering a bit today, seems to have stronger winds again. and moving northwest..

edit: 2PM advisory out with 145MPH winds and moving northwest. Should have waited a minute more to post. It looks like it'll pass just east of Jamaica.

If it continues with the northwest motion, though, it'll cross 75W around 14.5N which then again would put it more west... This will be a very long week of tracking.



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Abaco Weather
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Marsh Harbour, Abaco, Bahamas
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97134 - Sun Oct 02 2016 02:45 PM

First, thanks to the board- it's an invaluable resource that I use every hurricane season. You guys do a great job.

Posting from Abaco in the northern Bahamas. Consistent model runs seem to be forecasting the centre of circulation to be more and more east of our area. Based on the erratic current movement of the storm though- how accurate are those model runs until we start to get a decent bearing on the storm? I keep seeing westward movement and some models- the GFS in particular- really worry me.

What do you guys think?

--------------------
Dennis and Floyd 1999, Frances and Jeanne 2004, Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Abaco Weather]
      #97135 - Sun Oct 02 2016 03:05 PM

Here's the simulated IR Satellite from the point closest to Abaco Thursday morning. (East of Abaco, but pretty much directly over Nassau)



That far out it could be over it just as easy as east of it, if I had to choose I'd rather be on the west side of the storm, but a cat 4/5 at the time is no joke. Prepare for a hurricane.

Conditions based on that would start do go downhill midday Wednesday, and last through the night into Thursday afternoon. Based on windspeed probabilities from the hurricane center you'd have a 20% shot to get hurricane force winds, and 65% chance for Tropical storm force winds. It wouldn't take much of a west shift for those chances to go way up. You'll likely be under a hurricane watch tomorrow night, and warning sometime on Tuesday.

Additionally the chances of it stalling near you increase if it does shift west.



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OrlandoDan
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Reged: Mon
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97136 - Sun Oct 02 2016 04:36 PM

Seems like I see this cane winding up again. Let's all be diligent and take this very seriously. Latest satellite imagery indicates to me a shrinking eyewall and increased convection of the Center of circulation. I see the eyewall compressing and winding up again.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97137 - Sun Oct 02 2016 05:17 PM

From Satelitte, looks like it his the 75W mark at 14.7N, still moving generally northwest. I suspect it will move between Jamaica and Haiti, but there's a chance it'll still get very close to Jamaica. Matthew would have to get to 76.2W to landfall in Jamaica, and I doubt it will drift that far.

Conditions typically are worse on the right eyewall (relative to overall motion) and just east of it. For Jamaica, if it were to pass to the east, it would spare the worst of the storm, but they would still get very strong wind from the north and flooding rainfall. The north shore of Jamaica would get the brunt of it. Haiti would get the strongest wind and surge, but not the extremely destructive eye of the storm.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97138 - Sun Oct 02 2016 05:47 PM

The whole issue of Mathews Siamese twin has been an anomaly. I hope I see weekening of this convection. I think it has disappaited a bit in the last few hours. Haiti will take less of a hit. This is a strange feature. One to be studied, for sure. Do the experts on this site have any opinion yet on this far eastern persistent convection?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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SpeedwayCocoa
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97141 - Sun Oct 02 2016 06:35 PM

Hey Folks, I haven't been around n awhile, but I was with this website when it was hosted at sostet.sys. LOL


My question... I am a manager of a Convenience store 10 miles from the Cocoa Beach cost in Cocoa. The UKMET model has as done well over the years, and it currently has the storm running into Brevard County. I read other blogs saying it will pass 75 miles from Cape Canaveral. Either way I'm in for a mess. Is Tuesday the "Magical" day when we will know just how close to the coast it will come?
I have live in Brevard County since 1985, and have seen the good bad and the ugly. I would love some intelligent input,

Thanks, Dave


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: SpeedwayCocoa]
      #97142 - Sun Oct 02 2016 06:55 PM

I have been a member since 2004 and have learned a great deal from the moderators and the Mets on this site. One thing is for certain, and that is the outlook of 4-5 days and beyond is usually a bit uncertain. Even though the center is not expected to strike the Brevard coast, the effects of Mathew with wind, and beach erosion could be substantial if it comes close enough to the coast.

Keep an eye on this site for the opinions of the experts and also Jeff Masters blog on wunderground.com (and the NHC of course).

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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Bloodstar
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: SpeedwayCocoa]
      #97144 - Sun Oct 02 2016 10:06 PM

Evening!

I would say to not focus on individual model runs, particularly model runs that are more than 3 days out. Could Matthew hit Florida? Sure. Personally I think the odds are very low for a direct Florida strike. I haven't had a chance to really look at the current synoptic patterns, There's a gulfstream sampling the upper air data in the region, so that data will be incorporated into the upcoming model runs. (Again, I'm not sure when the data is incorporated, the 12Z runs?)

You really should trust the NHC, and with a storm this powerful, you really want to stick with the experts.

Just my two cents.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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Bloodstar
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #97145 - Sun Oct 02 2016 10:41 PM

Well, it looks like the last three hours, Matthew has been moving a tiny but east of due north at least according to the Vortex data reports.. The IR shows a wobbling motion but more a true north. Pressure is holding steady around 943 mb. I wonder what is influencing Matthew?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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SouthGAwx
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Georgia
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97146 - Mon Oct 03 2016 12:14 AM

Quote:

There's a gulfstream sampling the upper air data in the region, so that data will be incorporated into the upcoming model runs. (Again, I'm not sure when the data is incorporated, the 12Z runs?)





Data from the NOAA G-IV mission was assimilated by the 00Z GFS run, and made available to all other meteorological centers for input into their 00Z models as well. This includes the ECMWF & UKMET.




Take care,
-C.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: SouthGAwx]
      #97149 - Mon Oct 03 2016 09:17 AM

While the track has shifted slightly east, then slightly west, Matthew has trended to the east. Remember back on Friday the 3 day forecast position (which normally pretty accurate) put Matt on the east coast of Jamaica this AM, but he is way SE of that position now. I am a bit worried about the slow down, this storm is going to be around all week which means the effects (rain / beach erosion) will multiplied over time. Plus this slow down increases the questions regarding the future track.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: JMII]
      #97150 - Mon Oct 03 2016 09:45 AM

Today is a day of monitoring, the NHC track seems pretty good in the short term with a lot of uncertainty in the Day 3-5 range. Monitoring general movement. Haiti is already receiving crazy amounts of rain, only the far western tip will likely get major hurricane winds, but the rain will be throughout.

Recon shows the eye has stabilized, so it has another shot at strengthening today.

If you are interested in speculation about the future, (and remember it is speculation) see the forecast lounge.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #97163 - Mon Oct 03 2016 03:39 PM

A state of emergency has been declared for Florida to open up response resources.

Florida Emergency management website http://www.floridadisaster.org

Additionally Dvorak T #s support a cat 5 again.



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