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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 98 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1152 (Michael) Major: 1152 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #97364 - Wed Oct 05 2016 11:13 PM

I agree...Matthew is looking very impressive tonight - which I suspected would happen.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: Colleen A.]
      #97369 - Thu Oct 06 2016 12:48 AM

Recon has found a pressure 952 mb, a pretty steep drop since the advisory. Indicating it is restrengthening.

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Bloodstar
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #97370 - Thu Oct 06 2016 12:51 AM

Quote:

Recon has found a pressure 952 mb, a pretty steep drop since the advisory. Indicating it is restrengthening.




yeah, a 7 MB drop in 90 minutes is pretty impressive. You can also see the eye clearing out on satellite and the cloud tops starting to become much more symmetrical.

People might wake up to a storm even more dangerous than predicted.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97371 - Thu Oct 06 2016 01:15 AM

A second RECON aircraft is now inbound from Keesler AFB, MS.

I believe we are at 24/7 RECON coverage now. Due to proximity to Land and Category. Mainly the proximity to the East Coast.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas [Re: danielw]
      #97372 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:43 AM

Latest Center Fix is indicating a pressure of approximately 941mb
Maximum wind speed, so far of 129 kts or 148 mph at flight level.

Roughly 129 mph at the surface.

Vortex report is going with 946 mb

Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 06 2016 04:48 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight [Re: MikeC]
      #97373 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:34 AM

With the 5AM advisory, the possibility of a Cat 5 landfall is implicit. The difference of landfall between 145MPH and Cat 5 is a model rounding error. If you live along the coast or just inland within the purple threat zones, just leave. Now.


INIT 06/0900Z 24.2N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 30.7N 80.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 32.4N 77.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 31.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 29.5N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH


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M.A.
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight [Re: cieldumort]
      #97376 - Thu Oct 06 2016 06:09 AM

Thank you Ciel. This is just as I was thinking yesterday. I just hope people know that the wind is exponentionally stronger. The difference from 120-145 is incredible. Being less than 5 miles from the beach in Vero I believe its in the best interest of my family to leave. I hope everyone else heeds this warning. I want to thank everyone on involved for the time and energy it takes to keep this site up to date. Good luck and be safe.

Mike


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight [Re: M.A.]
      #97382 - Thu Oct 06 2016 08:51 AM

Recon just found 937mb,
Winds: Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 128kts (~ 147.3mph)

Rapidly strengthening, if you live in an evac zone in the hurricane warning area, please please do so . Maps at http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/

Just be aware traffic will be beyond insane.


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cieldumort
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: MikeC]
      #97383 - Thu Oct 06 2016 08:56 AM

Most recent pass through Matthew strongly suggests the hurricane is now a solid Cat 4. This is also corroborated by recent subjective Dvorak estimates of Cat 4.




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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: cieldumort]
      #97387 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:02 AM

Ciel is on the money. Eyewall appears to have fully closed off.
If the rainbands are bringing any of the above the surface winds to the ground You could easily see 140- 150 mph gusts or downbursts.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: danielw]
      #97388 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:06 AM

Webcams:

Juno Pier (Near West Palm)
Melbourne Beach Cam
Flhurricane Cocoa Canal Cam
Cocoa Beach Pier Surf Cam
Satellite Beach Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam

List of more Surfing Gator Webcam List

See other Matthew recordings http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Matthew+(2016)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: MikeC]
      #97389 - Thu Oct 06 2016 10:23 AM

I saw a few obs of 937 and 936 mb from HH, intensication is still occurring. And it looks like the winds are starting to mix down to the surface, which is exactly not what we want to see.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97399 - Thu Oct 06 2016 01:12 PM

Storm surge maps updated http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?inundation#contents

9+ ft of storm surge along the space coast, 5+ in a lot of others (see the map link)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: MikeC]
      #97403 - Thu Oct 06 2016 01:25 PM

It looks like neither hurrican hunter has left base. Any reports of mechanical problems?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97409 - Thu Oct 06 2016 02:44 PM

Video of roof being blown off in Nassau: (Language alert)

https://twitter.com/SurfnWeatherman/status/784098438363230208


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Bloodstar]
      #97422 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:14 PM

Quote:

It looks like neither hurrican hunter has left base. Any reports of mechanical problems?




Recon is up now, finding the storm is pretty weak on the western side:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-3014A-MATTHEW.png

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: JMII]
      #97423 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:19 PM

Agreed, you can certainly see the weakness (relatively speaking) here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-rb-long.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #97427 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:41 PM

ERC going on smaller inner eye bouncing aroudn in the bigger one attempting to form.

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cieldumort
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: MikeC]
      #97429 - Thu Oct 06 2016 04:49 PM

NWS Jacksonville Matthew Briefing - Words to live by -


Full briefing (PDF)


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shelzy33
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Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau [Re: cieldumort]
      #97433 - Thu Oct 06 2016 05:43 PM

I'm no weather expert, I'm just wondering about the aftermath; what will this storm do to all of the wildlife in the everglades. And who is going to clean it up... alligators, crocodiles, birds, ect.? And Thank-You to everyone who reports all of the information about this storm!! :?:

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