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TD12 barely sustaining but Invest 91L causing serious flooding already and likely to become a named storm this week in W Carib
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Ian) , Major: 8 (Ian) Florida - Any: 8 (Ian) Major: 8 (Ian)
18.6N 36.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Wnw at 17 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
12.1N 71.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1004mb
W at 15 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight

Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2178
Loc: Austin, Tx
Late Season Fires up with Invest 90L
      #97559 - Tue Nov 15 2016 11:35 AM

9:30 AM EST Update 19 November 2016
The tropical low located in the extreme southwestern Caribbean began tightening and developing organized, persistent, deep convection overnight Friday, and a tropical depression appears to be forming or has formed.

2:30 PM EST Update 18 November 2016
A mixed bag of interacting surface features in the Caribbean and an abundance of shear and dry air in the vicinity is serving to limit 90L's organization potential heading into the weekend. However, the disturbance is worth following closely given its persistence, and no matter what, the slow moving tropical low's proximity to land could lead to flooding rains.

12:00 PM EST Update 16 November 2016
The broad low pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean, Invest 90L, appears to be consolidating today, with weak low and mid-level centers somewhat vertically aligned as can be seen in the image below taken at 1615z. Despite the improved organization, impediments exist and it is not clear if current trends will last, but if this persists then a tropical depression may form by tomorrow night. As of 7AM EST this morning, NHC listed 48-Hour development odds at 30% - and 80% within 5 days.

Original Entry
A broad area of low pressure that has been forming in the southwestern Caribbean is now being tracked as Invest 90L. This disturbance is not well organized yet, with several swirls rotating about and within an unorganized 'center.'

Models and other indicators suggest that 90L could become significantly organized and the formation of a tropical depression appears likely, with the NHC giving it an 80% chance of becoming one within 5 days as of this entry.

The next name on the list is Otto.

Note: Storm links below may be delayed and still showing Invest 99L until they fully update.

90L Event Related Links

float16latest.gif stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[ Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 90L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Nov 19 2016 09:44 AM)

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