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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 330 (Nicholas) , Major: 345 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1399 (Michael) Major: 1399 (Michael)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2133
Loc: Austin, Tx
Powerful Hurricane Otto Inland
      #97565 - Mon Nov 21 2016 03:50 AM

Update 4:30PM EST 24 November

Certainly not what they needed in Central America, as less than an hour after 110MPH Otto made landfall near the border of the eastern shores of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck just offshore of their west coasts, complicating everything. There is now an even greater risk of mudslides, rockslides, etc. along and near the path of this very strong hurricane, still estimated to be a powerful Cat 2 as of the 4PM CST NHC Advisory.

Update 1PM EST 24 November

Hurricane Otto has just made landfall near the town of San Juan de Nicaragua on the southern Nicaraguan coast as a top-end Category 2 and borderline Major hurricane today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles. Weakening is now underway as the cyclone traverses mountainous land, but increasing risk of flooding with rainfall of up to 20" in places likely.

Update 11PM EST 22 November

Hurricane Otto continues barley moving in the extreme southwestern Caribbean tonight, but is expected to increase in forward speed tomorrow and make landfall with 48 hours over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica.

The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Warning from Bluefields south to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. The Government of Costa Rica has issued a Hurricane Warning fro Limon northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch north of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

Update 11AM EST 22 November 2016

Otto continues to strengthen and nearly all model runs are trending stronger. These runs are also now south of where they have been and Otto could become the first Costa Rica hurricane landfall on record. Another change with the most recent NHC advisory is that it also now appears that Otto will probably survive across central America into the East Pac, which would be the first time a tropical cyclone has done so since 1996.

There is a chance that Otto strengthens more than forecast, and a high-end Cat 2 or even a Major at landfall is not out of the question. Regardless, Otto is expected to be a very strong hurricane into landfall at a minimum and preparations should be underway in Watch areas to protect life and property.


The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica have issued a Hurricane Watch from the Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields Nicaragua.

The weather service of Panama has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Panama from Nargana to Colon and a Tropical Storm Watch from west of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border.


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nargana to Colon

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres
* West of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border

Update 1PM EST 21 November 2016

SIXTEEN has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Otto with maximum sustained winds estimated to be about 50MPH and a minimum central pressure of 1000mb, which could be conservative. Recon flights scheduled to fly in this afternoon have been canceled.

Interests along and near Otto's forecast path should consider making preparations for a strong tropical cyclone with the potential to produce life-threatening flooding rains.

Above: Nullshchool Visualization of global weather conditions analyzed and forecast by supercomputers

Original Entry
The main circulation center within a persistent area of monsoonal low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has organized sufficiently to be classified as a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been started on TD16, the sixteenth official tropical cyclone of the historic 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

SIXTEEN is landlocked in the Caribbean and could make landfall as a strong tropical storm or hurricane this week. Prior to being classified, weather associated with its parent circulation had already claimed at least five lives due to flooding, and flooding will likely continue to be a significant threat as this slow moving tropical cyclone dumps copious precipitation near and along its path, possibly adding to the very high death toll from Atlantic basin tropical cyclones this year - 2016 is already the deadliest since the infamous Atlantic hurricane season of 2005.

Note: Storm links below may be delayed and still showing Invest 90L until they fully update.

Otto Event Related Links

float16latest.gif stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[ Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 16
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 16

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 16 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 16 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 16

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 16
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 16 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Nov 25 2016 01:52 AM)

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Hurricane Otto [Re: cieldumort]
      #97567 - Wed Nov 23 2016 12:50 PM

The NHC upgraded Otto to a cane last evening, but recon was not able to verify that intensity when it showed up shortly thereafter. The shear increased further overnight and drove dry air into the core.

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Hurricane Otto [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #97569 - Thu Nov 24 2016 09:35 AM

Otto now is a VERY strong Cat 2 with winds of 110mph. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. Crazy to have a storm on the verge of Major status at only 11.0 degrees north!

2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)

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