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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Area of Concern - TS CINDY
      #97665 - Sat Jun 17 2017 02:29 PM

At 17/18Z, Invest 93L was centered in the Gulf of Honduras, near 17.5N 86.5W, and is drifting generally northwest.

93L is slowly organizing, with sustained winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1008MB. SSTs in the northwestern Caribbean are a very supportive 28C. However, both the surface temps and depth of the 26.5C isotherm drop off considerably in much of the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, in the near-term, windshear is still challenging, at or above 20 knots.

Models in the aggregate slowly take 93L into the Gulf and develop it into a mid-grade tropical storm while under the influence of more favorable shear, but there is still a lot of speculation as to its eventual intensity and destination. See the CINDY Lounge for more on that.

As of 17/18Z, NHC has given 93L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days.

Title changed to reflect NHC advisory issuance on PTC THREE .. and now CINDY

- Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 20 2017 01:50 PM)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Area of Concern - TS CINDY [Re: cieldumort]
      #97691 - Tue Jun 20 2017 02:03 PM

At 20/18Z, PTC THREE was upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy, the third named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, based on recon finding sufficient tropical organization, as well as winds at or above minimum tropical storm force just close enough to the center of circulation.

Cindy and Bret being active tropical storms simultaneously during the month of June is a very rare occurrence, happening only prior seasons on record.

As of 20/18Z, CINDY was centered at 25.9N 90.5W, and was stationary. Min central pressure was 999mb, and maximum sustained winds were running 40 knots, or 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles, mainly to the north and east of the center.

From NHC

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected
farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.

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