MichaelA
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The 12Z and 18Z results did show a more easrward track. It looked like the 18Z HMON and HWRF also shifted ever so slightly eastward. We'll see if that trend continues in subsequent runs or if they shift back toward the west again. It will be interesting to see what they begin to indicate on Thursday and Friday. As has been stated, prepare now for the worst and hope for the best.
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Michael
PWS
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Stay calm and re-visit each step in your family hurricane plan.
In nearly 59 years of living in Florida, 40 of which were in multiple locations along the east coast of Florida, I've experienced the fringe on one Cat 4 (75 miles out on the "good" side of Floyd), within 40 miles of four Cat 3's (Donna as a toddler, , , Matthew) and the eye of Cat 2 David. I've been in 6-8 tropical storms (several on a sailboat). Each time I had a safe room or "hurricane hole" to ride out the worst conditions forecast. If Irma comes up the Florida peninsula and weakens to a Cat 3, we're staying in the original concrete block section of our house (built in 1950). If Irma holds as a Cat 5 (or a strong Cat 4) and the forecast has her riding up the east coast of Florida (a possibility), the wife and I will pack up the labs and cat and drive before conditions become perilous) west 75 miles inland to leave and shelter at the farm I grew up on.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
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11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida), Graphics haven't updated yet, but Central Florida is now in the cone as well.
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chance
Weather Watcher
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They just said heck with all the other models we will go with 1 in the euro model. Why??? Why only go with that one. I understand the is a outliner this run but last was east as well. The others are east of this as well. Why?? i do not see the reason they can give by just saying they will go with the euro only that is it.
Waiting on the 00 euro and if that shows east i do not see how they can go with it.
Edited by chance (Tue Sep 05 2017 10:49 PM)
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MikeC
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initialized poorly and too far north for one, it is an outlier with a lot of submodels based on it. They made the right call on that one, especially with the mean ensembles being up the spine, the operational WAS an outlier. I hope the trend east happens also, but that wasn't it. (Edit: Trend east and out to Sea, I don't want the Carolinas seeing Irma either)
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Tazmanian93
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Loc: Tampa
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Mike, wasn't the Euro 5-7 more accurate than for Harvey?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
I can honestly say that I don't know. Do we go to GA?
When to leave? By Thursday PM you'll be in the 3 day cone which (going by current history) is pretty darn accurate. That would be my go / no-go time frame. TS force winds would enter your area around Sat PM. What is downside to leaving early rather then later? Not much, you burn some gas, help the local economy with some nights in a hotel and get familiar with the menu at Cracker Barrel. Drive a few hundred miles a day, find a hotel, stop, fire up the WiFI and collect more information then plan your next move. If things look better stay put, if things get worse - keep driving. My worry would be gas. Down south here the lines are already getting pretty crazy.
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11PM Forecast track follows the Euro/HWRF Track fairly closely (over keys to extreme SW Florida)
So the is going with more western solution (for now)... interesting. This was my call this AM and I haven't seen enough information to change it.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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MikeC
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0z , corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. Just under 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.
Cat 5 landfall, Charleston, SC Midday Monday.
Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.
For an even bigger shift, is shifting from a Panhandle landfall to an close call with the east coast and out to sea. (overkill to the east from overkill to the west)
0z ukmet has landfall at west palm beach and rides the east coast of Florida inland up to Jacksonville. Shift west, and less interaction with Cuba.
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bahamaweather
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Loc: Abaco, Bahamas
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Another 'eastern' run for the .... I'll wait until morning to see the Euro and the possibility of a trend. keeps things dicey in the Bahamas for sure...
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Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04
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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
0z , corrected south this run,but still a tad too north, either way goes over Turks and Caicos Cat 4/5 on Friday, goes just south of Andros Island in the Bahamas Saturday night, (Southern tip catches eyewall), starts to turn north just west of the Island. eastern eyewall over Andros. Over Bimini as a cat 5 Sunday Morning. West eyewall is over miami. 30 miles east of WPB on midday Sunday.
Shift back west, but still offshore Florida. init was a bit too far north, it'll be a close call either way, I'd bet on another west shift later. It shifted 65 miles closer to Florida this run.
Hasn't been east for most of the life of Irma. Euro has had this westerly track pegged for several days...that's gotta be why is sticking close to that ensemble....
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Londovir
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Curious about how/where you can see the init. Would the 0Z run init be correlated to 7pm EDT position of the storm, or am I off on how that works? If so, I'm comparing the rough center of the position at +0 with the radar images from Barbados at 7:01pm looks to be in roughly the same spot, plus or minus a tiny bit.
If the persists in making it an east coast event, and the Euro continues with the west coast event, it's going to be a nightmare for in deciding how to advise on the potential track.
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Londovir
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MikeC
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Only by comparing short term models vs actual data. I suspect Euro may shift slightly east, and will shift slightly more west again.
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Steve C
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Loc: Houston TX 77059
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Quote:
and shelter at the farm I grew up on.
Yup. Similar in Houston. Short of a direct hit Cat 4-5, we are in no flood trouble and stick it out.. But with a close and big storm forecast, we bail early. We grab the computers, backup drives, and keepsakes. We shoot a quick video of the house contents. And we head to our daughter's in Austin. On the way, we call the insurance agent and remind him where the house is... heh. We stayed for Harvey; no wind and no surge. We left for Ike and (though eventually missed us, and we basically u-turned in austin after a quick nap.)
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Claudette ('79) Danielle ('80) Jeanne ('80) Alicia ('83) Bonnie ('86)
Allison ('89) Chantal ('89) Jerry ('89) Dean ('95) Allison ('01)
Rita ('05) Ike ('08) Harvey ('17) Imelda ('19) Beta ('20) Nicholas ('21)
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ObsFromNWFL
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HMON & HWRF have shifted east. Disney World saved. Mar-a-lago doomed.
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ObsFromNWFL
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00Z has shifted significantly east.
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Marknole
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5:00 AM discussion: "The bulk of the guidance now calls for Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The officialforecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance."
Not surprising given such a dramatic shift, however the guidance is very compelling. Would love to see this trend continue and let Irma ride up the Gulf Stream!
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Jumaduke
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We are in the Gainesville area and are watching the model plots quite closely. Husband and I are in a debate as to which storm scenario is worse for the state. He argues that the NOAA model, making a direct hit on Lake Okechobee as she barrels up the center of the peninsula, would be worse because she'll directly affect more people and property. However, I contend that landfall would significantly weaken the eye faster; rather, the path projected by virtually every other model (showing it scraping up the coast and keeping the eye over open water) would be more damaging because nothing would dampen her power. I guess it all depends on when Irma decides to take the snowbird route and head North. Then again, I keep musing on the path of Floyd in 1999, which again scraped the coast of Florida but didn't have an entirely devastating impact because the eye was so far East of the coast. Irma looks to be on a trajectory which puts her eye closer to the beaches. In any case, I'm guessing that we won't be gassing up the truck and traveling TO St. Augustine to witness the storm (as we crazily did in '99).
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Go Gators!
Edited by Jumaduke (Wed Sep 06 2017 06:16 AM)
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ObsFromNWFL
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The 06Z run just posted. Unchanged from previous run.
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MikeC
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0z Euro shifted east, this time. The storm is aover the Turks and Caicos late tomorrow night in the cat 3/4 range, crosses the very southern tip of Andros island in the Bahamas Sautrday midday. Then western eyewall gets very close to West Palm Beach late Sunday night, <20 miles. Then landfall between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC. Early Ttuesday morning,
6z is very similar, but with landfall slightly south of the Euro and closest point to West Palm is 30-40 miles. The run is mostly identical to the 0z run until it gets east of Jacksonville, where it turns back west faster.
0z HWRF has also moved east of Florida 6Z HWRF Still running, a bit west of the 0z run,
0z HMon has landfall near Key Largo early Sunday as a cat 5, then up the state, and out by Daytona Beach Early Monday. 6Z HMON Takes it to north of Savannah, closest approach to WPB is about 60 miles.
this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda, Ensembles are still nearly a 50/50 split on a Florida landfall (mean winds up slightly east this time though) and the Euro ensembles still take it up the spine of Florida.
Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet. It's not good news for the Carolinas if this occurs, though. A few miles in either direction will make a lot of difference, look for bias corrects (GFS has been too far north consistently in the short range) Bottom line, wait to see if this holds or not, and take the word of the National Hurricane Center over any other source.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
this is a solid trend east with both the major models slightly east of Florirda. Hopefully this trend continues today with mulit-model agreement, but it is still too early to call this a sure bet.
This is best news we've had in awhile. Hopefully the trend continues because the current track is too horrendous to even consider, it's the stuff nightmares are made of!
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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