JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 541
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Quote:
This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?
I think reality is setting in, we are looking a potential state wide disaster. On top of that one look at Jose's track makes you sick.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
Prospero
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 268
Loc: Gulfport, FL
|
|
We have "Hurricane Canvas" to cover the windows and sliding doors on the newer part of our home, and lined up a reputable guy to come by tomorrow to put up plywood on our older windows. (First time ever!)
But, even though the websites say otherwise, Home Depot and Lowes around here appear to be completely sold out.
Oh well, still thinking it will miss us to the East, but the nervous energy in Florida is at an all time high. I would suspect many times higher than at the period of Andrew approaching. We just hope the paranoia and fear is unfounded primarily based on media hype and not based on the ripples of time working backwards.
-------------------- Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
|
chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 83
Loc: Lubbock, TX/St Pete, FL
|
|
Quote:
This board is eerily quiet. Are we all waiting for the 00Z model runs?
Not much to say that hasn't been said already. I think we're all in agreement on a Westward shift in the models. I'm watching the Westward wobble to see if it becomes a trend.
-------------------- Matt
|
chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 83
Loc: Lubbock, TX/St Pete, FL
|
|
Pressure down to 919
-------------------- Matt
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Accuweather stinks..... they are never "LIVE" and they spend most of the time talking about the western 2/3 of the country... and there is no local weather.... How does any cable company pick them up!!..
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Back to Irma.... has she already started her more W movement I think of around 275dg?? .... If so, this might have the UKMET as being correct and it might make landfall in 24hrs or so in N Cuba or skim the coastline
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Dug the generator out from where it has been hidden for over 10 years tonight...the sheet is real. Called mom and planning to get her battened down and bring her back here Saturday morning. If the current track or anything west confirms, I will put my shuttering up late Saturday (on the north side at least) and decide on the south side Sunday morning....unless I say screw it and just do the whole thing Saturday....not as young as I was 10 years ago. Trying to find space in garages for all of the cars....also may have to do something to the house next door which is vacant and owned by a friend who is in Bermuda. Lots to do and hopefully plenty of time to do it!
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 41
Loc:
|
|
Quote:
Back to Irma.... has she already started her more W movement I think of around 275dg?? .... If so, this might have the UKMET as being correct and it might make landfall in 24hrs or so in N Cuba or skim the coastline
Yeah, they''d be the geniuses. Doesn't have to keep it up much longer before those tall mountains on that side of Cuba start affecting it. Seems like they've started already, Haiti definitely has.
|
bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas
|
|
I can definitely see the western movement. Didn't most of the models, including the and Euro show a western movement before the hook to the north?
I can't remember- I've been looking at too many models.
At this point I guess it's down to timing- it looks like the route of escape for Florida is just about done.
-------------------- Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04
|
Prospero
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 268
Loc: Gulfport, FL
|
|
Quote:
chance:
Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to fogure out weather to leave or stay.
Here is a visual with a Florida outline superimposed over Irma in the same scale:
-------------------- Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
|
Prospero
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 268
Loc: Gulfport, FL
|
|
11:00 PM update, my heart sank a little...
OK, speaking for everyone on the west coast of Florida:
All of us wishing for Irma to stay east of us is in no way reflective of how much we much we love you and care about your safety, your lives, families, homes, possessions, and everything else. We are just terrified to think of Irma running up the super warm waters just off to our east pushing the Gulf of Mexico into our towns with Cat anything force wind.
Our beautiful west coast Florida hasn't been tore up in a while. We are not eager for the next time.
-------------------- Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
0z goes back east 30 miles at least
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
0z goes back east 30 miles at least
Can't we just ignore the ...it hasn't been remotely accurate throughout the entire history of this storm....
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Quote:
0z goes back east 30 miles at least
00z is now curving to the point of missing FL, GA, SC, and NC. Thats... unexpected.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Nam is garbage.. we look at it for laughs... it doesn't do well with Tropical Systems
|
USF893
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
|
|
The "model" has been the most accurate so far.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2484
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Quote:
00z is now curving to the point of missing FL, GA, SC, and NC. Thats... unexpected.
NAM is about the last model I consider for tropical cyclones, but that is interesting. The larger trend is mostly baked in with the best TC track guidance. Florida and/or Southeast. Large system, with impacts likely direct hit or not.
|
WestFLJess
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
Loc: Tampa Bay
|
|
Post deleted by Cieldumort
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 08 2017 01:39 AM)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
I don't know if you're kidding or not with the XTRP but that isn't a model.. it's a current extrapolated movement it's current moving at.. example.. if Irma is moving around 285dg.. it will show that in XTRP the direction of 285dg.
CMC also slightly east also.. but I only weigh that slightly over the Nam... I like the Euro with this....GFS out to 48hrs and UKMet solutions
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Euro is slightly west with landfall middle keys and up thru to Labelle,Fl between Ft Myers and Lake Okeechobee by 0Z Monday (72hrs)
|