JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Could change everything
Double landfalls - Irma in Cuba and Katia in Mexico! Irma actually went SOUTH for a bit there, could be a wobble, but she ain't behaving properly. That airport weather station I was monitoring went offline about an hour again, so no ground data on current situation. Models are shifting west again, hugging the western coast of FL now.
From the :
Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt. The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate after 48 hours, moving parallel to the West Coast of Florida and then into Georgia. Mainly because irma's eye has not deviated from its westward motion, the new forecast track has again shifted slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to the West Coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore.
Future forecast positions are Cudjoe Key and Fort Myers.
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
Edited by JMII (Fri Sep 08 2017 11:13 PM)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4489
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
The convection on the northwest side of Irma towards south Florida has really fired up tonight, usually a sign the ridge may be eroding, expect Irma to slow more and start the turn in the morning or so, it's going to be a nail biter to exactly where it makes landfall, but the surge, check the Inundation map (hasn't quite updated for 11 yet) to check if you are in it or not.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
I don't think that those mountains in Cuba are strong enough to keep this from coming our way. I just listened to Dr. Knabb and he's saying the same thing. Don't count on Cuba to keep us out of danger. That being said --- if you're not out of the Keys by now..what were you waiting for? SMH.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Might be a wobble, or it might be the beginning of the turn happening now (to my decidedly non-expert eye).
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4489
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Models are getting less important, but the turn and when it happens is still vital for impact
0Z , turns midday tomorrow, then landfall late Sunday morning just west of Marathon, Cat 5.
Mainland landfall in the late afternoon, cat 5, near Everglades City passes over winter haven, cat 3/4, heads north near Interlachen Cat 3/2. moves nw cat 2 west of Jacksonville, weakening into cat 1 into Georgia up toward Athens, Ga.
This is a shift east for the .
0z UKMET has landfall just west of Marathon also (Over 7 mile bridge) then landfall near Ft. Myers Beach. very slight nudge east of last run.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Quote:
Might be a wobble, or it might be the beginning of the turn happening now (to my decidedly non-expert eye).
Trust me, I have no expert eye, either. Could be a wobble..my eyes are just tired. I'm just ready for it to be over.  Just got an alert on my phone that we are now under a hurricane warning from the NWS. I live in Polk County. Not that I haven't been following it...it's just disconcerting. Now looking at it...it looks like it was a little bit of a wobble. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
|
|
Quote:
Models are getting less important, but the turn and when it happens is still vital for impact
0Z , turns midday tomorrow, then landfall late Sunday morning just west of Marathon, Cat 5.
Mainland landfall in the late afternoon, cat 5, near Everglades City passes over winter haven, cat 3/4, heads north near Interlachen Cat 3/2. moves nw cat 2 west of Jacksonville, weakening into cat 1 into Georgia up toward Athens, Ga.
This is a shift east for the .
I was thinking the models would switch a little east.My money is splitting the state right in the middle of South Florida.
--------------------
Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
|
Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
As we all watch nervously to see where Irma is ultimately going, I thought I'd put out there that for all the grief that the sometimes takes for their forecasts, this advisory from Monday the 4th was pretty darned good when you look at where Irma is at right now and where she's been:
--------------------
Londovir
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Amazing to the degree.. 99% accurate 5 days out
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
Looks like the 00Z run of the the is becoming visualized right now.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
|
dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
|
|
if that track verifies, god help us all here on the west coast. Ultimate nightmare scenario staring us down.
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
Also looks like the close interaction with Cuba is having a weakening effect, at least in the short term. Irma has yet to make the turn.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
Quote:
if that track verifies, god help us all here on the west coast. Ultimate nightmare scenario staring us down.
Looks like the has shifted west again.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Latest (model has outperformed others with Irma) strongly suggests that the cyclone will ride along or just inland of the Cuban coastline for at least another 18 hours or so, and on this track Irma would have some significant and ongoing land interaction. The center would be traveling across lowlands at least off and on - possibly continuously -- and the broader circulation wound likely have at least some disruption from hills. But even on this track, the model shows only modest weakening.
The most recent recon pass found that Irma's pressure has already gone up several millibars, likely as a result of this continued westward track - into portions of Cuba. Given the degradation on satellite, along with the weakening noted in the last recon pass, it is possible that the Euro is understating the amount of weakening that will occur. However, keep in mind that once Irma gets mostly to all back out over water, restrengthening will probably commence, regardless.
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
We just had a strange and very quick burst of wind here in Northwest Orlando with showers moving from the northeast to the southwest.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I saw several sub 900mb pressure forecasts on one of the model runs earlier. I was using tropicalatlantic.com
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
I believe she is making the NW turn as we speak. If so, this would her back over water. Need a few more hours to verify. Is this a zone in Cuba that the US still needs permission to traverse with RECON?
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
It is possible that Irma will experience significant weakening if it tracks with a large portion of the center over Cuba. However, the straits are a very warm section of the Atlantic when it makes the turn. Time and direction will tell.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
|
ObsFromNWFL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 14
|
|
Irma appears to be totally collapsing over Cuba on the satellite images.
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
I don't think that Irma is totally collapsing, but I am wondering how much of the weakening will be cited in the 0500 update. It might be too late for the to recognize it.
--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
