cieldumort
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A look at other seasons with the same name list during the 1995-? 'Active Era' Vs 2017
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cieldumort
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A look at other seasons with the same name list during the 1995-? 'Active Era' Vs 2017
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cieldumort
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A look at the Kaplan based AMO indexes for the above years vs current (1999, 2005 and 2012 vs 2017), and then also 2017 compared to the recent low activity years of 2013, 2014 and 2015. Months span from January through July (as August 2017 is not yet updated).
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cieldumort
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With the formation of Tropical Storm Katia, 2017 becomes one of now 7 years with 11 Named Storms by September 6 in the Atlantic basin. The other years being 1933, 1936, 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012, all of which were active (1936, 2011) to hyperactive (1933, 1995, 2005 and 2012).
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cieldumort
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Six Atlantic Hurricanes have formed from Aug 7th to Sep 6th - Tied with 1893
1893 was likely a hyperactive year with 10 Hurricanes of which 5 became Majors
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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Six hourly ACE record in the Atlantic on 9/7. Added as an attachment as image correction is not loading.
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 08 2017 06:01 PM)
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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1899 Atlantic hurricane season featured the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin on record.
1933 Atlantic hurricane season was the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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According to Dr. Klotzbach, as of early afternoon on Sep 18th, the N Atlantic basin had generated more ACE to date this season than in any full Atlantic season since 2010 - thus even surpassing the active 2011 and 2012 seasons, to the end of their respective years.
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cieldumort
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Maria is now a Cat Five, the second of 2017.
Only five other years on record in the Atlantic basin have had two Cat 5s: 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005 & 2007
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cieldumort
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Within the past month
THREE Cat 4 US Landfalls ...
After 4,324 days without as much as a Cat 3.
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cieldumort
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2017: HYPERACTIVE
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DarlynDeville
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Quote:
"Did I see an invest near 50W & 20N today.? (many apologies if incorrect place to post)"
There is an 'Invest' at that location, actually the remnants of Lee. Its chances for regeneration within the next few days are rather low. has reduced their odds from 70% to 30%. If it gets interesting, we will certainly be discussing it again - at least in the Lounge: Lee Lounge . Feel free to add any additional "Invest Lee" related questions or comments there - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 22 2017 01:19 AM)
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DarlynDeville
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Thank you so much!!
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cieldumort
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craigm
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What's interesting about this year is what it portends for the 2018 season.The neutral condition's we're experiencing now have contributed to the lower shear environment across the basin. With this knowledge it's worth mentioning the La Nina forecast for this winter and potentially what could carry over into next season. I have linked the latest La Nina forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
If this forecast pans out we could see this hyperactivity for the duration of this event. La Nina cycles can last up to two years. For readers who are not aware of the effect of La Nina on Hurricane activity in the Atlantic I offer this:
'Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University pioneered research efforts leading to the discovery of La Niña impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity, and to the first operational long-range forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. According to this research, the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience hurricane activity increases substantially during La Niña.'
As to the rapid intensification of these storms this year I will have to let someone more knowledgeable speculate on that.
-------------------- Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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