10PM EDT Update 1 October 2017
There are no active storms in the Atlantic basin. It's about time.
2PM EDT Update 27 September 2017
Maria is beginning to move away from the US and out to sea. Hurricane Lee is now a major hurricane, but will also stay out to sea.
Another area south of Cuba currently is forecast to move north of Cuba and deepen, either as a frontal or possibly subtropical low, which will likely bring rain to South Florida and central Florida, and make it generally windy over the weekend, then it likely will move back to the west over Central Florida. How strong it gets is up in the air, but it is something to watch closely over the next few days.
There's a 20% chance it develops over the next 5 days right now, so it likely will just bring rain and some wind.
Original Update
There will never be another hurricane named Maria, and while a beautiful name and a gorgeous cyclone, it's safe to say that 2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone 15L "Maria" will not be missed.
Maria is not done yet, and interests along the east coast need to pay very close attention over the next few days, as even if Maria does not come ashore along or near the Outer Banks (increasingly possible - in fact with many of the model ensembles showing this) her effects are and will still be felt in the form of dangerous rip currents, high swells and blustery wind and rain. Stay tuned, and ready to prepare to take more action as her Cone of Uncertainty has continued to include the OBX, and may still shift west.
Elsewhere, Lee, having gone from TD to Tropical Storm, to just a remnant, is now a very powerful, very compact hurricane, conservatively estimated to have 90 MPH maximum sustained winds at the time of this post, making Lee the 8th Hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This one will probably stay well at out sea, but may have some impact on Maria's steering currents, as it is plenty strong to impact the other features in that region, despite the small size. In fact, it would not be shocking to see Lee become one of the Majors. Without recon going all the way out there to sample him, unless he should start to threaten land of course, we would have to rely mostly on satellite estimates to make this determination. We have the technology...
Looking ahead to next week, solid models are already honing in on increasing potential for new tropical cyclone formations. The first place to find out if we have identified a specific feature or Invest worth tracking will be in the 2017 Forecast Lounge , and we hope you will also join us there.
Edited by MikeC (Tue Oct 03 2017 06:36 PM)
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