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Archives 2010s >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 92L Lounge
      #99107 - Sat Oct 14 2017 06:56 PM

A broad area of low pressure that has been tracked by NHC for a few days is continuing to show indications of development potential, and now at a pace that may be picking up. This feature has been tagged 92L, and given its very close proximity to the northern Leeward Islands, we will start a Lounge thread, despite it being forecast by most reliable models to soon recurve out to sea (however, not without an outlier chance of not heading out to sea, and a fair chance of impacting more of the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles and possibly Bermuda, regardless).

Conditions for development are on the increase, and as of early this afternoon NHC had assigned 40% odds of this Low becoming a topical cyclone within 5 days, and this could be conservative. Deep convection has been firing closer to the center today, and if this trend continues, development may occur sooner, possibly even by tomorrow night or Monday.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles should pay attention. Regardless of development, 92L already has the potential to produce life-threatening heavy rains and flooding over recently storm-ravaged and flood-prone locations.

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99114 - Mon Oct 16 2017 10:57 AM

Invest 92L is looking a little better today, with deep convection having blown up quite a lot overnight, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined center. Time is running out for 92L to become a tropical cyclone before it likely merges with a frontal system midweek. Odds of development within the next 48 hours are about a coin toss.

Regardless of development, associated heavy showers are likely to continue today over portions of the Greater Antilles and Northern Leeward Islands, and storm conditions might impact Bermuda by Wednesday night.

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