MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4434
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This is the post for numbers of storms in the format of TropicalStorms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. This will be open until June 1st.
My guess for 2018 is 14/7/3
Last year (2017) the final number was 17/10/6 which was way above. Closest was JoshuaK with 17/9/4, followed by ftlaudbob with 18/9/5, and Bloodstar with 18/9/4
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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13/7/3 ( subject to change before board closes. )
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doug
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
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15/8/5. Good luck to all!
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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14/8/3 Best of Luck
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M.A.
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 107
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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17/9/5
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gsand
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
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Greetings All,
16/7/3. Stay safe everyone.
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Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3
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EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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17/8/5
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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15/7/4
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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16/8/4
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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15/8/4
Edited by Liz (Mon May 14 2018 02:14 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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13/6/2
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 14 2018 01:20 PM)
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jtrnr1951
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: Ocala National Forest
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15, 10, 5
and I hope I'm wrong...
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 114
Loc: Ohio
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16/9/5
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 327
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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17-7-4 Here we go again. I wonder who`s in the cross hairs this year ?
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Couldn't edit my previous prediction issued in early May, so here is the minor tweak (upward) ahead of the June 1st deadline:
14 storms
6 hurricanes
3 majors
I'll add the following gut conjecture... the 2018 season will be busy early with several tropical storms and a weak hurricane (Alberto in late May followed by Beryl in late June then Chris in sometime in July. I believe August and early September will be unusually quiet. Activity cranks up the second half of September, early and late October, and first week of November with 5 hurricanes, 3 achieving major status. My gut suggests males dominate the Atlantic Basin in 2018, with Isaac and Kirk names to remember.
Given the set-up in May of persistent troughiness over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico combined with a weak Bermuda high funneling copious tropical moisture northward out of the western Caribbean Sea, the entire length of Florida from the Keys and southern tip to Pensacola in the Panhandle could be in play.
Edited by IsoFlame (Wed May 30 2018 08:58 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Raw numbers from a methodology I've employed for the past ten years - these are *raw* numbers, and I tend to use them as a baseline from which I look over all sorts of other info - unashamed to say I will also be reading in earnest Colorado State University's updated seasonal forecast, which comes out later this morning - before finalizing my bid.
Right now, my inclination is to actually go lower than my raw findings (image below)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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CSU =14/6/3. Noted cooling in the basin ascreason for the reduction. TSR= 14/4/1. I will stay with my earlier prediction.
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu May 31 2018 03:23 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Several variables leave me viewing 2018 in the Atlantic as rather evenly weighted to around normal, or close to either side thereof, for total numbers of names, hurricanes and majors, but importantly, with an above-average to high landfall risk from the Gulf coast states to the mid-Atlantic.
Given that we have already seen one (preseason) named storm, and indications are that we may very well see at least one in June (early season), I'll go with my system's output of 12 Names, 6 HURs and 2 Majors - offering a most likely range of 9-13 Names, 4-7 Hurricanes and 1-3 Majors. Above average to high risk of U.S. landfalls (which could make season totals moot if any significant cyclones make landfalls, regardless of season formation totals - "It only takes one.")
Final bid for 2018: 12 Names, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Majors
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
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17 Tropical Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
Still in an active phase
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4434
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ok we're locked down for this year. Alberto is a freebie.
(We can track edits, so careful  )
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