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Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99533 - Sun Sep 09 2018 12:03 AM

All the dropsondes from around Florence this afternoon made it into the 0z GFS - should definitely help with the output. We can put more weight in many of the models' runs (not just GFS) starting now than we did even just a few hours ago.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 09 2018 12:27 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99535 - Sun Sep 09 2018 01:45 AM

Some specifics of the 0z GFS run look almost impossible. Takes Florence just offshore of the OBX and sits and basically spins as a Cat 4/5 for 120+/- hours (over 4 days) before finally decidedly pulling away out to sea. My main issue with this run is this: Sitting in place for so long while a hurricane, let alone a high-end Major, is likely to result in quite a bit of ocean upwelling underneath the cyclone, lowering its fuel supply.

Other than that, the risk of Florence stalling out over or very near the OBX for several days on end is itself very plausible, and a scenario also supported by other models, like the UKMET. This could result in epic flooding, storm surge in surge-prone areas and an onslaught of sustained wind damage, for sure without having to be a never-ending Cat 5.



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99536 - Sun Sep 09 2018 03:43 AM

0z ECMWF with stronger ridging than GFS, much less intense Florence (though STILL Major - see second image below), and inland into N.C. with subsequent collapsing of steering currents (forecast by essentially ALL the models). The rain totals that follow are breathtaking for both their areal coverage and accumulation (see below, cr. Weather.us)



Peak gusts into landfall per 09 0z ECMWF


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99540 - Sun Sep 09 2018 12:19 PM

12Z Runs (so far)

12Z GFS Starting late Thursday/Friday morning stalls Florence over or near Cape Hatteras for several days (Cat 4) through at least Saturday.

12Z CMC also stalls Florence over or near Cape Hatteras for several days (Cat 4) through Saturday. then it glides southwest toward landfall @ Jacksonville, NC. next MONDAY morning (Cat 2/3)

12Z German Icon, Approaches the OBX Friday morning, no landfall, then sends it back SOUTH

UKMet 12Z now shows Jacksonville, NC landfall. Thursday night.as a solid category 4 hurricane.

12Z GFS V3- Wilmington, NC Landfall cat 2/3 Friday morning

12Z Euro -- Wilmington, NC Landfall cat 3/4 Thursday night/early friday AM, then stalls out near Boone, NC

12Z NavGem - Wilmington, NC Landfall Cat 3 Saturday morning



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99544 - Sun Sep 09 2018 03:54 PM

Euro ensemble spread



UKMet Ensembles 12Z Sep 9:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99548 - Sun Sep 09 2018 06:52 PM

18Z Models:

18Z GFS, Landfall near Morehead City, NC cat 4 hurricane on Friday morning, hangs over that general area until Monday then gets very close to Bermuda on the 21st, the runs over Newfoundland on the 24th still with hurricane force winds.

18Z FV3 GFS Landfall Wilmington, NC Cat 4 hurricane Thursday night.

18Z German icon ,recurves before Outer Banks

18Z HWRF, Gets to Cat 5 but weakens back to 4 before landfalling in Wilmington, NC late Thursday night.


18Z GFS Ensembles






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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99553 - Mon Sep 10 2018 02:19 AM

I think folks should be aware that this storm has the potential to be just as deadly 200 miles inland as on the coast between the very high wind gusts, significant flooding, and limited run tornadoes. Now is the time to plan and prepare!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #99556 - Mon Sep 10 2018 06:23 AM

0z Model Runs: Mixed shifts, mean is around Wilmington still, Euro ensembles shifted left, UK shifted right. GFS on the right. Nearly all hit land.

0Z GFS Cat 4 landfall near Morehead City, NC late Thursday night or very Early Friday morning, then excessive flooding rain as it slowly drifts westward across NC, through Monday at least.

12Z Eruo shifts a bit south, Landfall cat 4 near NC/SC border Thursday night, then moves inland to the mountains of NC/TN through Sunday night, then southeast into South Carolina Monday, back into the Altantic SE of Charleston by Tuesday (18th), and starts to restrengthen offshore by Wednesday (19th) ends Thursday (20th) Due east of St. Augustine, FL and south of Morehead City, NC in the Atlantic.

0Z UKmet takes the storm into just south of Cape Hatteras Thursday night and inside the outer banks into southeast Virginia.

0Z F3 GFS Landfall near Oak Island, NC Cat 3 Thursday night, moves inland to about High Point, NC by Saturday afternoon, then loops and back out to sea near Wilmington by Monday night, then keeps it out to sea.

0Z CMC Approaches Wilmington, NC Thursday night stalls just offshore as a cat 3 (within 20-50 miles) the eventually makes landfall as a cat 2 at Wilmington on Monday. Then creeps toward Raleigh and Virginia until Wednesday.

0z HWRF has a cat 3/4 landfall near Wilmington, NC Thursday night or very early Friday Morning. Then makes it toward Central NC where the run ends on Saturday.

0Z HMON Has landfall Friday morning near Jacksonville, NC as a cat 3/4 hurricane. The meanders just inland until Saturday when the run ends.

0Z German Icon has a Cape Hatteras landfall Friday morning as a cat 3/4 hurricane. Then meanders around in the sounds through Sunday night.then it slides into West Virginia from there.

Euro Ensembles:


UK:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99557 - Mon Sep 10 2018 06:30 AM

6Z models (so far)

6z GFS Landfall near Morehead City, NC Late Thursday/Friday morning Cat 4 (nearly cat 5). Meanders just inland from there and loops inland Through Tuesday where it exits just north of Nags Head then starts to restrengthen offshore.

6z HMON Landfall just north of Morehead City, NC as a cat 3 early Friday morning.

6z HWRF shifts left to just north of Myrtle Beach, SC cat 3/4 landfall Thursday night.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99565 - Mon Sep 10 2018 02:08 PM

I won't be able to do a model update this afternoon, but will return for later tonight. Cat 4 already.... wow.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99572 - Tue Sep 11 2018 04:36 AM

0z EPS (ECMWF ensembles) shifted toward South Carolina, possibly in response to a still more pronounced ridge in the southeast, which is itself in response to a more robust 95L. (Something similar occurred with hurricanes Katia and Irma last year. (Image below)



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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99576 - Tue Sep 11 2018 02:32 PM

looks like HWRF, HMON, and GFS 12Z are all hitting near Wilmington NC on Thursday afternoon/Evening. 100 to 110kts (with GFS coming in at 90kts). around lanfdall.

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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #99577 - Tue Sep 11 2018 02:41 PM

Quick observation and sorta question, it looks like Florence took a bit of drier air into the system, it doesn't appear to have disrupted the eye wall, but I wonder if it could help explain disruptions to intensification, if, in fact I am not seeing things?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #99578 - Tue Sep 11 2018 03:02 PM

It'll slow down strengthening probably, but the big story today is how large the storm is growing (size wise).

Any way 12Z modes..

12Z Euro.....................
Ok this one is alarming, gets close to Cape fear cat 3/4 stalls just offshore Friday morning then slowly moves southwest raking the coast all the way to about Hilton Head, SC. Then inland Sunday morning cat 2/3 moves to Atlanta still Strong TS or cat 1 strength. Yikes

12Z GFS Landfall Late THursday night near Cape Fear cat 3/4 hurricane drifts west toward the mountains through Sunday.

12Z CMC Landfall Cat 3 near Morehead City Nc Friday morning, drifts around eastern north Caroilna until Sunday morning.

12z UKMET landfall near Jacksonville, NC

I'll stop here for now.

12Z Euro Track



12z Euro Ensembles (so far):



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99580 - Tue Sep 11 2018 07:02 PM

18Z GFS Eyewall brush of Wilmgton NC of a slow moving Cat 4 hurricane by Friday afternoon moves southwest, raking the coastline all the way to Charleston where it finally makes landfall late Sunday night as a cat 3 hurricane moves inland, by Charlotte, NC Monday night, then remains loop back off Wilmington, NC slowly reforms then loops back and hits Jacksonville, FL as a Cat 1 hurricane on the 24th. then back out to sea and goes to the Northeastern Bahamas where the run ends.

18Z FV3 GFS Landfall Wilmington, NC late Friday morning, then slides south offshore.

18z HWRF Cat 4 landfall near SC/NC Border early Friday morning, then inland

18z HMON Cat 3/4 landflal Wilmington, NC early Friday morning, then drifts inland.


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Joeyfl
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99581 - Tue Sep 11 2018 07:53 PM

Don't like the trends with GFS showing a really bad scenario and little more in line with euro. Folks from northeast FL ti Ga and SC need to pay attention do not get caught off guard very troubling trends

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #99582 - Tue Sep 11 2018 09:00 PM

I'm hoping the overnight model runs will clarify things some, I think the hurricane center was reluctant to change the track on just one time run of some of the models. The evacuation calls in SC seem like a good idea, though.

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Joeyfl
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99587 - Tue Sep 11 2018 11:51 PM


"It must be noted that there remains considerable uncertainty
with the exact track of this system once it approaches the
Southeast coast. The steering flow almost completely diminishes by Thursday night, after which a wide range of possibilities exist. The model solutions in the last 12 hours have changed considerably beyond 60-72 hours, resulting in relatively low confidence in the current forecast. At this juncture it is imperative that everyone in southeast SC/GA continue to closely monitor the latest forecast information."

This was evening discussion from Charleston SC NWS.


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SC Bill
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #99588 - Wed Sep 12 2018 01:40 AM

First of all, good luck and be safe to all in the ultimate path of Florence. Knowing just who that may be, though, is challenging at the moment.

Located in Hilton Head, Beaufort County, SC, it has been a roller coaster. First, a mandatory evacuation was called- and then rescinded just before it took effect. Soon after we seemed to be "in the clear", the models went coordinated crazy and started heading for landfall in SC. At this hour, the spaghetti models are all over SC, and NC is almost in the clear. HOWEVER, there's no extension of watches or warnings southward on the coast, no change of "hurricane local statement", but our ordinary, old NOAA forecast includes:

Friday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77.
Saturday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday: Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

What to do? Leave early in the morning and try to avoid jammed evac routes when the order is issued again? wait it out, and leave at the last minute? Guidance would be gratefully accepted: With a wife, daughter, son in law, 5 yr old and 11 month old g-daughters, 2 dogs and a cat, this is not an easy caravan to deal with!! Thanks.


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: SC Bill]
      #99589 - Wed Sep 12 2018 03:00 AM

I wish I could help more, but I would say to be prepared to leave with very little notice. I'm trying to warn my friends in South Georgia to be alert. If you're packed and ready to go, you should be able to get out ahead of the worst of the traffic, I assume your car has been topped off with gas?

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