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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: SC Bill]
      #99590 - Wed Sep 12 2018 04:02 AM

More and more of the operational runs of the models are locking on to this left hook just before/into/just after landfall.

The 0z EPS run implies widespread/numerous peak gusts up to around 100 MPH along the S.C. coastline during the 120 hours ending 0z Sep 17.

If that verifies (which is entirely plausible) that would be pretty bad (as in potentially life-threatening), say nothing of the seemingly never-ending surge and rain.



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Random Chaos
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99591 - Wed Sep 12 2018 06:24 AM

Quote:

I'm hoping the overnight model runs will clarify things some, I think the hurricane center was reluctant to change the track on just one time run of some of the models. The evacuation calls in SC seem like a good idea, though.




If anything it made it more uncertain. Take a look at the EPS run:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99593 - Wed Sep 12 2018 06:49 AM

The 0z euro runs are into Savannah, GA this morning after a ride along the coast south from Wilmington, NC. But the other models don't go as far south, GFS rides to Myrtle Beach before going inland. FV3 GFS goes in just north of Charleston, SC after the coast ride from Wilmington. CMC just takes it slowly into North Carolina. 6Z FV3 shifted a bit further north, closer to Murrel's inlet SC after riding down from WIlmington, NC.

0Z HWRF Rides from Wilmington to Myrtle Beach cat 4/3. And the 0z HMON Takes it into Wilmington, then slowly inland from there.

The ensembles (as shown in the post above) take the ride, but differ on how far south it gets. (most in SC, a few in Georgia, but only one has far south as Central Florida) Just shows there is *still* a lot of uncertainty.

This is probably making folks in Georgia and southern South Carolina a bit nervous, just watch closely, the NHC didn't change the track much at 5AM.


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Prospero
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99600 - Wed Sep 12 2018 05:47 PM

I tried to find where to post conspiracy theory storm predictions, and the Forecast Lounge seems to fit the best as defined as "gut feelings".

To me, as I have brought up a handful of times over the years, I believe with confidence some kind of "secret seeding" is going on with Flo. Note the image below and the "unusual" break in the eye wall.



I've seen a few odd events in this storm in the past 24 hours. Yea, I know, conspiracy theorist. I believe Bacon wrote Shake-Speare.

That said, there have been a few storms where the eye wall breaks up as it approaches important landfall areas. Even Katrina had eye wall issues and it back-fired in a big way.

I understand we cannot publically announce we are seeding this storm or that, as anyone in any path would want their storm seeded. And if it goes sour, like Katrina, who pays the bill?

Should we seed Flo?? That is a very hard call.

Call me crazy. I am Prospero!

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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99601 - Wed Sep 12 2018 06:00 PM

I figured it was some dry air and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle myself.

--------------------
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Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
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Prospero
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #99602 - Wed Sep 12 2018 06:21 PM

Quote:

I figured it was some dry air and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle myself.



If it is dry air, it definitely is not being swirled in with the storm, it somehow made a "slice" right across the convection in spite of 130 mph winds.



--------------------
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Edited by Prospero (Wed Sep 12 2018 06:22 PM)


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Prospero
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99603 - Wed Sep 12 2018 06:44 PM

In all seriousness, and I am open to scientific explanations, but I am suggesting that what appears in the image below is a man-made phenomenon that cannot be explained by nature.



The dynamics at point A and very different than the dynamics at point B. A hurricane is a spiral, it is impossible for a line of dry air to suddenly appear across a spiral.

Am I wrong?



UPDATE: I won't post anymore on this forum as it is too important for people who need up-to-date information about the storm. I will just quickly add that North Caroline is able to do cloud seeding, and I wouldn't blame them for seeding Flo. I am not saying they did, but they could:

First Aerial Assault is located in Trenton, North Carolina. This organization primarily operates in the Cloud Seeding business / industry within the Services, Not Elsewhere Classified sector. This organization has been operating for approximately 4 years. First Aerial Assault is estimated to generate $90,000 in annual revenues, and employs approximately 1 people at this single location.

Edited by Prospero (Wed Sep 12 2018 08:19 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99605 - Wed Sep 12 2018 08:50 PM

There's an upper level low to the southwest of Florence that is feeding in dry air in the upper levels, along with the ERC it weakened quite a bit. The ULL left in the wake of 94L is forecast to move out in about 8-12 hours, so there's a fair chance it'll strengthen again tomorrow before hitting the shallower areas.

You can see the upper level dry air to the southwest in some of the soundings that the Gulfstream IV dropped and in the water vapor sat shows it well also. The ULL is moving away form the system to the SW.

The biggest weakening agent is the southerly wind shear though, which the graphic below points out with the clouds that are moving north.




Surge momentum is already there regardless.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99606 - Wed Sep 12 2018 09:02 PM

18Z Models

18z GFS Has a cat 3 making landfall in Wilmington Friday morning, then moves in southwest slowly toward Augusta, by sunday then quickly moves north and out.

18Z FV3 GFS landfall Wilmington Friday morning cat 3, then slides along the coast to Myrtle Beach, then moves inland relatively quickly.

12Z euro landfall Friday morning Wilmington, Cat 3 then slowly moves down toward Charleston by Sunday morning then loops inland through Augusta then up quickly into the northeast.

18Z HWRF landfall Wilmington Cat 3 Friday morning, then inland toward Atlanta by Sunday.

18Z HMON landfall near Jacksonville, NC Cat 3 Friday Morning then inland.

Euro Ensembles:



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99607 - Thu Sep 13 2018 04:29 AM


As can be seen in the image above taken 09-13-18 0712z, outflow is expanding west, north and east overnight, but is still being severely impinged upon south and southeast. This is primarily the result of some dry air and shear sent her way from both the ULL to the southwest of the hurricane, as well as stout shots from the circulation around a high to her east.

The ULL should continue to drift southwest, while Florence tracks initially a little north of west, and over the warmer waters of the gulf stream. This combination should allow for a window in which some reorganization and deepening can occur, and it would not be surprising to see the hurricane back up to a Saffir-Simpson major prior to landfall.

More troublesome for residents along the southeast coast, however, is not the SS wind rating Flo's got, but a vastly larger Hurricane Force (HF) wind radius. As noted elsewhere, this is going to increase the surge potential over a much larger area. For comparison, Katrina underwent similar changes, making final landfall as Cat 2/3 on Louisiana, yet the surge was record-setting in large part due to her size and time over water.

Worse yet, given the probability that this cyclone slows down to a crawl for quite a while, this surge will not let up any time soon over some places - even forcing rivers to run backwards, thereby not allowing all of the runoff from the torrential rains further inland from exiting into the ocean - and that water will have to go somewhere.


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tpratchModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99609 - Thu Sep 13 2018 08:01 AM

Quote:

There's an upper level low to the southwest of Florence that is feeding in dry air in the upper levels, along with the ERC it weakened quite a bit.




Naw - I want the conspiratorial explanation instead of weather facts


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craigm
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: tpratch]
      #99611 - Thu Sep 13 2018 12:05 PM

No disrespect to Prospero cause that would be some life saving technology but, I am not sure what you would seed a Hurricane with to disrupt that much Energy. Copied the following off of the website Live Science:

"A fully developed hurricane releases 50 or more terawatts of heat energy at any given moment, only about 1 percent of which is converted into wind. The heat release, Landsea wrote, "is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes." The entire human race in 2011 used about a third of the energy present in an average hurricane."

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Prospero
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #99612 - Thu Sep 13 2018 12:54 PM

Quote:

...but, I am not sure what you would seed a Hurricane with to disrupt that much Energy.




There is a lot of information online about it and it does have an interesting history. The official word is that they don't do it anymore. But I believe they do. ("They" can be anybody.)

https://climateviewer.com/2014/03/25/history-cloud-seeding-pluviculture-hurricane-hacking/



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tpratchModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99613 - Thu Sep 13 2018 01:14 PM

From that site you posted, they did mention to disrupt a hurricane would take a fleet of aircraft seeding, yet the company you posted about has one employee?

Honestly I don't believe there's much smoke or fire in this one.


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IsoFlame
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99616 - Thu Sep 13 2018 03:56 PM

Prospero-

To give man the credit for the natural phenomena (dry air intrusion) that degenerated hurricane Florence's circulation does not acknowledge the fact that we are at the mercy of the vagrancies of weather- not the other way around. Man will never be able to control or significantly alter weather events when desired... though our carbon footprint will increasingly continue to anthropogenically exacerbate extreme weather events unintentionally unless we reverse course!

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Sep 13 2018 03:59 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99617 - Thu Sep 13 2018 04:04 PM

One picture that does not fit ones preconceived idea of what dry air entrainment should look like, is not proof of tampering by cloud seeding. There are likely many possible scientific explanations of what was seen on that frame OTHER than man-made tampering. Carl Sagan has much to say about these things in his book, "The Demon Haunted World: Science as Candle in the Darkness".....I highly recommend it.

PS. Cloud seeding was never dependable enough for practical use even to attempt relief during a drought. The army also looked into it as a possible weapon (Think flooding out an attacking army) and found it too unreliable and expensive to use. If NOAA had found a way to use the stuff against hurricanes it would be huge loud front page news!!

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99618 - Thu Sep 13 2018 04:08 PM

Okay folks, let's put this thread back on track. The Forecast Lounge is not the place to discuss conspiracy theories. Perhaps open up an ASK/TELL if you wish to discuss it further. And I'm willing to ban if necessary, so thanks in advance for your help.
- Ciel


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JMII
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99620 - Thu Sep 13 2018 05:25 PM

The dry air that got sucked in has weaken the system, now a Cat 2 with 100 mph winds but the core is trying to wrap up. Forward speed has decreased as expected. Currently tracking slight N of the predicted path. The land interaction is going to cause wobbles and strength shifts as the inflow is disrupted. DirectTV has a "Weather Mix" channel on channel 600 with 4 live feeds from various channels covering the storm including local NC coverage. Live YouTube stream from Hurricane Track in Wilmington North Carolina: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKAQ2InuPd8

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David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Prospero
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #99621 - Thu Sep 13 2018 07:11 PM

This is a good Live cam with sound which adds a lot of effect:

Frying Pan Ocean Cam with Sound

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Joeyfl
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #99622 - Thu Sep 13 2018 07:46 PM

Gust 112 mph at Onslow bay buoy.

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