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#98L continues pushing inland Deep S. TX. Heavy, banding precip with gusts to Trop Storm force along the S. TX coast currently underway.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 334 (Nicholas) , Major: 350 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1404 (Michael) Major: 1404 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99498 - Thu Sep 06 2018 06:09 AM

Florence model roundup. In short, extremely large spread.

0z GFS Gets very close if not over Bermuda on Tuesday, moves closer to the US, but no landfall, it meanders well east of cape cod for a few days then moves quickly over Newfoundland on Sept 19th.

6Z GFS takes a cat 3/4 over Bermuda

FV3 GFS stays south of Bermuda and NO landfall.

0z CMC Moves west, just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, cat 2/3 landfall near Wilmington , NC Midday Thursday (13th), moves inland near Raleigh and stalls out.generally over that area and points east through Sunday.

0z Euro is north of Bermuda, then toward Wilmington, but cuts north over the Outer banks as a cat 3/4 and sounds then moves up the Chesapeake Bay, exits over Delaware, then slowly out to sea.

0z UKMET basically straight west along 25N, at the end of the run it's around 25N north of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Ensembles


92L's eventual track also has a lot of dependencies on what Florence does, so avoiding that one for now.

Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 06 2018 06:26 AM)


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Doombot!
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99499 - Thu Sep 06 2018 06:36 AM

This is, without a doubt, the biggest spread I've seen.

Miami is in play, Cape Canaveral, Jaxsonville, a huge cluster between Savanah and the outer banks, Virginia, Delaware - Maine, Bermuda, out to sea, anti-cyclonic loops hinting at a delayed forcast. Crazy pills!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #99501 - Thu Sep 06 2018 04:18 PM

12Z Model summary:

12Z GFS, quite nuts, misses bermuda to the south, Cat 2 landfall Eastern Long Island late on Sep 14th. goes straight south to almost Georgia's latitude offshore, then back north and landfalls in Newfoundland on Sep 21st. This seems unrealistic based on the ridge setup.

12z FV3 GFS goes very near or over Bermuda on Tuesday, then out to sea.

12Z CMC, late Thursday night (13th) landfall near Wilmington, NC then stalls out inland over E. North Carolina through Sunday.

12Z Euro landfall in the NC outer Banks on Thursday (sep 13th). Hangs just offshore of Delmarva through the end of the run on Sunday.

12Z UKMet shifted more north, ends just east of the GA/FL line offshore. (Just south of the Euro track) UK Ensembles are more spread from S. Florida to the Outer Banks.

Euro Ensembles


UKMet Ensembles:


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99503 - Fri Sep 07 2018 12:34 AM

Partial 0z update. Left shifts.

0z GFS Shifts slightly west/south, no landfall as of 192 hours out, but it does get somewhat close to NC before beginning a loop.

0z CMC landfall Friday morning (14th) as a cat 2/3 hurricane near Morehead City, NC, and sits and spins right over or near the coastline through Monday in the same general area.

0z UK Met shifts back south, ending at 29.6N 75W (See SFWMD plot on main page)

0z German Icon landfall Thursday afternoon Cat 3 near Morehead City, NC then rides coastline just inland up to New Jersey by Friday night.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99505 - Fri Sep 07 2018 06:14 AM

0z Euro run has shifted left again, this time with landfall as a cat 3/4 hurricane near Myrtle Beach, SC Thursday afternoon. Ensemble spread is still large.

Euro Ensembles:



UKMET Ensembles:



06z GFS run going now: It also shifted left.and has a Cape Hatteras landfall Thursday morning as a cat 3/4, then up the Chesapeake bay to Washington, DC/Baltimore, then turns back out over New York City into the Atlantic by Saturday morning.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99510 - Fri Sep 07 2018 12:29 PM

Quick summary.

12Z GFS landfalls near Morehead City, NC Thursday morning.
12Z CMC landfall, Savannah, GA Saturday the 15th.

12Z Ukment shifts south again, now pointing toward Georgia.
12Z Euro, landfall near Charleston, SC late Thursday night cat 3/4.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99512 - Fri Sep 07 2018 04:33 PM

The possible ways Florence can find an escape hatch out to sea are rapidly dwindling in number. Of what's left, newly tagged Invest 94L located between N.C. and Bermuda might have the best chance. If this can organize and deepen, it could erode enough of the developing anomalous blocking high that Florence will otherwise run up against.

Models are just now starting to digest the new info on 94L, and incorporate this into their runs. It may be very informative to see what happens with that disturbance. We will be watching it closely with updates in the (Invest 94L Lounge)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99513 - Fri Sep 07 2018 09:12 PM

18z GFS Landfall Midday Thursday Morehead City, NC Cat 3/4
18Z FV3 GFS Landfall Thursday Night Morehead City, NC Cat 2/3

18Z HWRF, ends with a cat 5 system see below:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99516 - Sat Sep 08 2018 12:17 AM

0Z GFS, Slower, similar to earlier track, very strong ridging, Landfall near Morehead City, NC cat 4 overnight Thursday-Friday. landfall is slightly south of the earlier 18Z run. Exits back into the Atlantic off Norfolk Saturday morning.
0Z CMC landfall near Brunswick, GA (Epic Ridging) cat 2/3 Friday night. South of the earlier landfall point at 12Z.
0z Icon slips along Cape Hatteras, then stays out to sea (shift east from earlier)
0z UkMet shifts a bit west from earlier, ends run east of Savannah in the Atlantic nearing Charleston, SC as a Category 4 hurricane.



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dolfinatic
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99517 - Sat Sep 08 2018 12:51 AM

This slight southerly and westerly trends in the models are disconcerting. Starting to feel like we need to pay attention to this storm. Kinda reminds me of Jeanne or Francis during that season. Especially with a strengthening ridge. And it is slowly losing latitude. Hope it stays away from Florida and the rest of the East coast of US. Because its looking like its going to be a monster regardless.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #99520 - Sat Sep 08 2018 08:00 AM

06Z And Euro Model info

6Z GFS Run scrapes Hatteras Friday morning then loops the storm just offshore until the Following tuesday and out to sea. Shift right from earlier.

0Z FV3 GFS, Charleston Landfall Late Thursday/Early Friday, cat2/3, exits into the Atlatnic near the Outer Banks, second landfall Jacksonville cat 1, Night of Sep 19th. Moves toward the big bend, exits near Jacksonville on the 21st, Cat 2 Scrape on Hatteras on the 23rd, then out to sea.

6Z FV3 GFS Shifts north to a Wilmington, NC landfall Friday morning. meanders to the outer banks, then loops back for a second Wilmington scrape along the NC coast before heading out to sea.

0z Euro hasn't really changed from the prior run except the storm is a bit stronger, landfall late Thursday/Early Friday Cat 3/4 north of Charleston, SC, then inland toward Charlotte, up through the Mountains into Tennessee and Kentuck by Saturday.

Euro Ensembles: Spread still crazy from https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2018090312-240-florence.html




UK Ensembles: Another left shift from https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?reset=1 (click far right button on the 3rd row-- ukmo)



6z HWRF:




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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99521 - Sat Sep 08 2018 09:51 AM

Early 12Z runs shifted west (again, but only so slightly, some of the BAMM models shifted right). It'll show up on the SFWMD image on the front page soon.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99523 - Sat Sep 08 2018 12:27 PM

12Z Runs generally right (north) shift

12Z GFS, Stalls offshore of the Outer Banks as a cat 5 through next Saturday. but loops around.offshore that general area until Tuesday then shoots northeast for landfall in Newfoundland in Canada still quite strong.

12Z CMC Landfall Cat 3 just south of Myrtle Beach, SC Friday morning A Shift north from earlier

12Z German Icon keeps it well east of NC,

12Z UKMET has shifted north toward just offshore Myrtle Beach

12Z HRWF shifts south,


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Bev
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99524 - Sat Sep 08 2018 01:35 PM

What effect, if any, do you think 94L might have on Florence?

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #99525 - Sat Sep 08 2018 02:05 PM

None really, other than adding moisture to the system.

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Joeyfl
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: Bev]
      #99526 - Sat Sep 08 2018 02:08 PM

Bev 94l will have little to no impact on florence or Florence's future. It would have to get quite strong for that to happen and at this point that's not going to happen as 94l is really being pulled and stretched to the east and west not a set up for development. Unfortunately florence now looks to have direct impact on southeastern us. Still hard to say anyone from central florida to north Carolina is at play it's short term movement coc have big implications on where she goes as bride should keep this on a west to wnw track until landfall.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99527 - Sat Sep 08 2018 02:29 PM

12Z Euro shifts north to a Wilmngton, NC Landfall late Thursday night/early Friday morning. cat 3. slides up to the NC/VA border then loops back west toward Charlotte, iincredible rain for Central/E north Carolina through Tuesday.

One striking thing about the ensembles, they diverge quickly, usually the spread is in the later days, but these recent runs it diverges much sooner.

Almost everything shifted right today, except notably the HWRF

12Z FV3 GFS is wild though, Cat 3 landfall near Wilmington, NC Early Friday Morning, then drifts into the sounds along the Outer banks through Saturday then back southwest over Wilmington Sunday Afternoon, then exits to the Atlantic restrengthens back to Cat 3, loops around for another landfall at Wilmington that Wednesday.then exits by the Chesapeake Bay and out to sea.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99528 - Sat Sep 08 2018 03:28 PM

One-third of the 0z EURO and virtually 95% of the 12Z GFS ensembles initialized Florence much too weak.

In the images below, you can get an idea of what clusters are favored based on their color. Blue is an extremely weak tropical storm at best, green a low-end tropical storm, etc. At this point today the ensembles runs initialized Florence generally in the 30-40 KT range. In reality, she is already in the 50-60 KT range, and within striking distance of becoming a hurricane again.

I would expect a continued rightward shift (and of an initially stronger TC - probably a HUR if they get it right this time) in the upcoming 09 0z runs.

Images cr. Weathernerds.org (I have penned up on top of their base maps so you can see better all that I am referring to).




Here's a close-up of the ECMWF members


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99531 - Sat Sep 08 2018 05:30 PM

Very sage tweet from former NHC director Dr. Rick Knabb (now lead hurricane specialist at TWC)
Quote:







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Prospero
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Re: Florence Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99532 - Sat Sep 08 2018 07:02 PM

Any of us that live within an extended version of the remotely possible cone are already watching every NHS update and definitely every FlHurricane.com update.

Gulfport, Florida here...

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