cieldumort
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A disturbance we have been tracking in the western Caribbean has now been outlined by as an area of interest once it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico, as development is being held in check by moderate shear in the western Caribbean, but shear could be sufficiently lighter closer to Texas.
Both Texas and Louisiana have already picked up copious rains over the past several days from monsoonal moisture, upper air disturbances, weak fronts, and even a borderline-TD . This disturbance could easily exacerbate flooding in the region, regardless of TC genesis.
NHC has placed an opening bid of 20% for TC development within 5 days, and despite limited model support, it could be conservative.
This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but may pick one up today or tomorrow, and the title will be updated accordingly.
This feature is now Invest tagged 95L and the title has been updated. - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 10 2018 01:32 PM)
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danielw
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I noticed a bit of a chance with the cloud pattern this morning.
Only 1 functional data buoy in the Caribbean due to the others being offline due to mooring problems.
Kingston Jamaica has 1011mb pressure but light winds.
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MikeC
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Ensembles for the area (toward the gulf, the ones on the right are for Florence)
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cieldumort
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The Ensemble implied probability of this becoming a TD in the Gulf on or before Thursday Sep 13 is now up to 50%. This looks about right to me. I'd probably even say 60%. Officially, still at 20%, but this is likely to go up, perhaps by a lot, should trends continue.
Folks in Texas and Louisiana may want to start considering preparations for a potential heavy rain maker next week, with flooding likely the biggest risk.
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cieldumort
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EPS implied probability of a T.C. in the western Gulf by Thursday 7pm CDT now 70%
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cieldumort
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This disturbance (now tagged 95L) may already be starting to undergo tropical cyclogenesis today (Sep 10). Interests in the Yucatan peninsula, NE mainland Mexico, Texas and Louisiana may be affected and it is conceivable that watches and/or warnings for a "PTC" may be issued as soon as tonight or tomorrow.
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cieldumort
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South Texas has already been dealing with flooding from a combination of upper air disturbances and surface trofs and fronts. This morning a weak near surface to surface Tropical Low is noted inland near the MX/TX border, west of Corpus Christi.
In the western Caribbean, newly-tagged Invest 95L is starting to light up models for development, most notably the ensembles, ICON and . Conditions are becoming favorable for development and has just increased their probabilities to 50% within 5 days as the disturbance continues northwest, generally toward Texas:
NHC 2PM
Quote:
Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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cieldumort
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EPS implied probability of a T.C. in the western Gulf by Thursday 7pm CDT now 75%
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cieldumort
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95L had what looks to have been a brief run at tropical cyclogenesis yesterday afternoon, but upper-level winds were just still too prohibitive, and that will probably stay the case until the narrow ULL to 95L's west pinches off and drifts to the southwest (most likely). About that time the wave should be entering or well in the western Gulf, and this is where several models now give the system a solid chance to develop.
Once again, the greatest risk will most likely be from heavy rain, regardless of classification, or not.
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cieldumort
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Invest 95L Sep 14 2018 2015z. Deep tropical fetch moving in over STX
95L is starting to move inland near Corpus Christi this afternoon without yet having become a TD. However, this system is yet another very TD-like Tropical Low that will provide abundant heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of the state through the weekend, whatever it's called. And there remains an outside chance that the Invest may yet organize further and picks up an T.C. title, but the window is closing.
Full TC development or not, flooding is likely. Recent rains have already saturated the earth in south Texas, and more than enough new rain is anticipated to trigger more flash floods.
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cieldumort
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95L is centered inland near Laredo, Tx this afternoon and structure has actually improved since being out over water as upper-level winds have become less formidable and as the tropical low is benefiting from traveling over very warm, saturated grounds and though a humid atmosphere.
ECMWF and hi-res modelling suggests that the banding which is now resulting in training of moderate to heavy rains could consolidate overnight (as is typical of inland tropical lows), and lead to a core rain event in south Texas and/or northern Mexico. These tropical core rains often lead to locally very high totals.
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