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Archives 2010s >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Nadine Lounge
      #99725 - Sun Oct 07 2018 03:11 PM

As if we needed a reminder that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is exceeding expectations, an area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic is showing some signs of trying to come together today. This feature is defined by an apparently closed, broad surface center presently located near 23W 7N, and a vigorous possibly closed mid-level low aloft displaced to the northeast.

While not yet Invest tagged, this feature has become much better looking since yesterday, and models have begun picking up on it a little. The ECMWF, GFS and FV3-GFS seem to initialize it far to weak. The Canadian CMC and German ICON models do seem to initialize it better, and both of those latter models do develop this low.

ICON - 1006 MB TD by late Tuesday Oct 9th. Begins recurving north while southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Tropical Storm by Th Oct 11, weakens some, misses exit hatch and begins tracking WNW while continuing to weaken. Trapped under High pressure heading WNW from 23N 40W at end of run.

CMC - TD by midday Oct 9th, Trop Storm by predawn Oct 10th, still heading WNW on a weakening trend. End of run right on top of Puerto Rico as a very weak but maybe wet TD or open wave 12Z Wed. Oct 17th.

Lots of time to keep an eye on this one.. still many days away should it develop further, and we will update the title if and when Invest tagged. -

Edit. This disturbance was tagged 93L a few hours ago Oct 8, and is on the cusp of being a T.D. - Ciel
NHC concluded 93L had become TD 15 at 6AM EDT Oct 10. FIFTEEN is now a Tropical Storm, the 14th of this active 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Oct 09 2018 09:47 AM)

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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: E Atl Tropical Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #99739 - Mon Oct 08 2018 05:17 AM

This disturbance continues slowly organizing and at first light is starting to have 'the look.' Likely to be Invest tagged 93L soon. Plenty of time to watch this one. Cape Verde type systems are a little out of season right now, but there it is.

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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 93L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99754 - Mon Oct 08 2018 12:03 PM

Above: 93L Floater courtesy from 1530z Oct 8

The area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic continues to become better organized, and midday today it appears to be on the cusp of becoming a T.D., with NHC officially 40% within 48 hours and 50% within 5 Days.

While upper level winds become less favorable after 48-72 hours for TC Genesis, given the heartiness of this system and the favorable pouch it is traveling within, it may not be permanently detrimental to 93L's future prospects, and interests in the Antilles may want to begin paying attention.

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