cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Odds for East Pacific Invest 97E to become a TD or Storm are coming down, with now officially at 20%. This is because the Low does appear to be tracking north and into central America.
There is a chance that this Invest, or its remains, finds a way to generate on the Atlantic side next week, but a close examination of the model runs that appear most bullish on that scenario show that they are actually mistaking Invests 91L's vorticity for that of 97E. Thus a list of more likely outcomes could be for 97E to mix in with the parent gyre, adding to the unfolding dangerous flood threat in the region, and possibly go on to help produce another (new) tropical cyclone in the SW Atlantic sometime next week - but it wouldn't be the vorticity models show heading to Louisiana-Florida early next week (because that is 91L), or alternately, 97E may just merge with 91L.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Now 9 confirmed dead in central America attributed to flooding from this CAG. Flooding rains will likely continue off and on in the region for many more days.
Al menos 9 muertos y miles de afectados por un temporal en Centroamérica
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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In the absence of Michel, which ran off with nearly all of the vorticity, a Central American Gyre now looks to be redeveloping in the southwest Caribbean, with surface trough running from 15N 79W to 10N 79W. Interaction with an upper-level low over the western Caribbean is helping fire up convection in the area.
There is a chance that a more condensed closed low could slowly form in the central to western Caribbean sea sometime during the next few days. Conditions do not look as favorable for TC Genesis right now as they did for pre-Michael, but it still deserves watching, especially as the Atlantic remains in flux and any little change here or there could have substantial influence on a fledgling system's odds.
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 197
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Looks like the gyre will try to reload the last week of October. Time is running out, given what looks like a pretty strong front scouring out most of the Gulf of Mexico around the 26/27th, progressively shunting any energy fermenting either side of the Yucatan Peninsula rapidly off to the ENE.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 197
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Unsure if strong high pressure building southward behind the late October front will affect TC fertility in the western Caribbean south of 20N.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 197
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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From the 10/12 tropical discussion: A Central American Gyre has formed in the southwest Caribbean
GOES-16 Total Precipitable water clear shows large scale rotation
associated with the gyre. A surface trough is analyzed through the
developing gyre from 18N79W to 13N80W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted from 10N-18N between 70W-84W,
although little to no showers are occuring north of 15N and west
of 80W. This gyre, or broad low pressure area, will slowly shift
W toward central America through early next week. Enhanced showers
and thunderstorms are expected to persist over the southwest
Caribbean.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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