cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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An area of persistent disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean, and this feature is now being tracked by . While development in the very near term remains unlikely due to only marginally favorable conditions, later in the coming week as the wave rounds the base of high pressure to its north and nears Florida, more significant development could begin. In the meantime the wave will likely produce some locally heavy rain with a risk of flooding over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
A few models are taking to this system, with some even developing a stout tropical cyclone once northeast of Florida while crossing the Gulf Stream and heading out into the open Atlantic. Most models suggest that regardless of a name or not, the Bahamas and/or south Florida could experience wet and blustery conditions late into the week and next weekend (around Thursday August 1st to Saturday August 3rd ). Of course, there is also the possibility that the wave stays further south with delayed development, or does not develop at all.
This wave has just been designated Invest 95L and the title has been updated accordingly. It is being estimated that as of 1800z today, 95L was centered near 12.8N 63.3W with maximum sustained winds of 25 knots and a min pressure of 1010mb.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Image credit: Weathernerds.org
The disturbance (tracked as 95L) persists as a trough stretched from the northwestern Bahamas to Florida Straits today, Thursday. Conditions for some development are on the rise, and it would not be surprising to see greenball this as a Invest once again. While tepid, several of the global models and/or their individual members do organize this feature into a TD or TD-like system while over or near Florida as early as Friday, with most suggesting the best chance for any meaningful organization while close to the state would be about Saturday, and if not then, then perhaps Sunday/early next week as it recurves and heads northeast out to sea, assuming it hasn't merged with the incoming front.
Regardless of development, much of the state will likely experience some blustery showers with locally heavy rain, thunderstorms - some strong to severe - from today into the weekend.
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