MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4436
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
96L Is raised with a 70% chance for development. Models show a hurricane crossing the NE Caribbean.
Model Summary so far:
18z Shows storm forming near NE Caribbean islands on Tuesday morning, hurricane over the Virgin Islands Tuesday night. Cat 2 hurricane near Tuks and Caicos on Wednesday. Stays JUST east of the Bahamas, closest approach to the US in on Fri Aug 9th, but is well east of the US And just east of Bahamas. Then out to sea. (Shifted west from 12Z run)
18z Legacy takes it over Hispaniola on Aug 7, Cat 2 over Andros island in the Bahamas on Aug 9, Between Freeport and West Palm Beach August 7 in the afternoon. Cat 3. Curves out to sea after that. (Shift west from 12Z run)
18Z Turns it out to sea well before the Caribbean and recurving it east of the Bahamas (weak).
12Z Icon does not show it at all
12Z Euro shows it keeping north of the Caribbean,
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4436
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Overnight Model runs (0z): In short, very mixed messages, leans toward weaker/east of the US
0z Euro: Never develops this system, rains over the NE Caribbean on Tuesday. low destroys it.
0z : Over Martinique as a TS/Depression on Tuesday, Tropical Storm clips Southwest Puerto Rico on Wednesday, then over the Dominican Republic. Over Igagua Islands in the Bahmas as a Storm/Depression on Thursday. Becomes a hurricane near Freeport, Saturday the 10th, Stalls east of Flagler Beach on The 12th, cat 1/2 hurricane. Nudges Southwest toward Daytona Beach (But remains offshore) closest approach it's a cat 3 on Aug 13th. Most of the bad weather remains offshore. then heads back Northeast out to sea, paralleling the coastline. (Shift west from last run)
0z Old/Lefacy : Stays in the Caribbean and crosses over Haiti on Aug 8th as a Tropical Storm, weakens, slides between Cuba and the Bahamas, Landfall Miami August 10th as a Cat 1 hurricane in the early morning, over Tampa by the evening where the run ends. (Shift west). Note: Extremely unlikely track.
0z & 0z Icon: Recurves out to sea before the Caribbean.
0z HWRF has a Cat 2 hurricane east of the Caribbean on Tuesday (NE of Barbados)
0z HMON Has a cat 1 hurricane 150 miles east of Antigua on Tuesday
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4436
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
6z does not develop the system at all, similar to the Euro. It does move the rain over the NE Caribbean and Hispaniola. The weak energy left never develops, but eventually goes near SE Louisiana on August 13th.
Generally the biggest reason I see that the Euro and now aren't developing it it's forming a that just interferes with any of 96L getting organized.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
