Jimena is a small storm that has remained well organized and is moving just north of due west toward the southern Hawaiian Islands. Jimena is expected to pass just south of the Big Island of Hawaii on Labor Day while still retaining hurricane intensity.
The cyclone has now passed to the west of 140W longitude so the forecast updates will now be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Here is a link to the CPHC:
As a blue-suiter liaison to the CPHC over twenty years ago, I imagine that things are beginning to get a little busy this morning in the Honolulu Center. Hurricanes in Hawaii are a rare event, but Jimena will come closer than most.
A subtropical ridge is expected to build to the north of Hawaii and keep Jimena on a westerly course as the hurricane approaches the islands. Jimena is currently over 27-28C SSTs which cool to 26C well east of the islands and warm up a bit again just to the south of the islands, so the expectation is that Jimena will maintain itself as a steady state system of about 70 knots as it nears Hawaii. Any minor jogs to the north would put the cyclone over cooler waters and weaken the system somewhat, but would also increase the risk of impact to the southern islands.
ED
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