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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11373 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:17 PM

For Isabel I will be spending time in the Storm Chat during the next week or so (varying times of day) click on the Storm Chat link on the left to go there or use an IRC client to connect to backpack.webmaster.com and join #uswxw.

7PM update Wed:
Recon has arrived in Puerto Rico to start flights tomorrow or Friday.

A full update will come later tonight.

Judging from the latest model trends, it appears Isabel, another strong category 4 storm is heading toward the fish twilrer status -- but no where near as certain as Fabian was. It is another impressive storm like Fabian, and its track is sure to be more erratic, but the model trends have it turning northward before it reaches the US. (Others may trend it back westward.. It must be watched!) As for the Caribbean, it must be watched, but I think it will stay north of the Islands.

Any east coast impact from the storm would be 8 days or more out.

Caveat, naturally, is that it all could change (and as the night goes along I'm finding more stuff they may make me change this tomorrow -- if you've been watching me change this post you aren't seeing things), but I don't see how it could at the moment. (See HankFrank's post in the Storm Forum for a valid reason it could change or SNONUT for another)

We'll be tracking it.



Tropical Depression #14 is shooting northward and is also no concern to land.

Outside of this, we really don't have any immediate concerns, although the Gulf is interesting and we are watching the rest of the basin as well.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 11 2003 09:02 AM)


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon
      #11375 - Tue Sep 09 2003 06:23 PM

Thankfully Isabel went more north than it was expected and now the northern islands in the caribbean are clear of any danger from it.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11384 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:37 PM

Take a look at this link:

NHC Water Vapor Loop

Note that you can just make out the upper level low to the west of Isabel. If you look close, you can tell that the inflow is now ESE, where formally it was south. Isabel should turn soon, probably in the next 6-12 hours.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon
      #11385 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:37 PM

Just a note to all that I have changed the news article a few times tonight and added some gotchas that may happen. (Including the ? mark on the Article Headline)

It's just a result of going through more data after I wrote it. Isabel is NOT as clear cut as Fabian was. I still think it'll spin fish, but confidence is dropping in that. Just FYI.


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11387 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:45 PM

I'm going to disagree with you on this one Mike and others. I think this will be a more serious threat to the east coast of the US than we've had in a long time- I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong.

For those of you who tire of Bastardi's doom and gloom, here's a nice discussion from Gary Gray--thorough, and well simplified for us amateurs:

Gary Gray Discussion

He gives very convincing reasons why Izy must turn west, at least in the short term. And his implications for days 6 and beyond are concerning.

I also noted on the Tallahassee NWS Discussion this afternoon the following:

09/00Z GFS PROGS SRN STREAM TROUGH TO PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM AND
THEN SHEAR NE OFF THE E COAST. THIS SHOULD STALL A FRONT NEAR THE
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AND HIGHER POPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 09/00Z RUN IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT THAN THE 08/00Z RUN WAS...AND WE EXPECT FURTHER SLOWING IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THUS...WILL KEEP EQUALLY HIGH POPS ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER HURRICANE ISABEL
WILL HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

You can often delve possibilities for larger scale changes from the areas where the storm most likely isn't going. If models continue to trend toward slowing or stopping this front, one would have to believe that the trough will not be as strong and Izy will be lingering in the Bahamas in 7-8 days.

I am not completely sold on a landfall just yet, but I am cautiously in that camp.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11389 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:49 PM

Clyde,

You may be right. I'm changing my icon to the eat crow one. Going to wait until tomorrow afternoon to make a new article though.



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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Looks as if Isabel may be making the westerly turn.
      #11390 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:50 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

I know that this may look like a trivial wobble to some, but I believe that the real deal is here. Why? Look at the sigificant east-west orientation Isabel has taken on in past few frames. In addition, the outflow to the north is being squashed while the outflow to the south and west is rockin'. We'll see if more satellite images confirm this possible westerly turn.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Looks as if Isabel may be making the westerly turn.
      #11391 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:56 PM

I will wait until we are within 120 hours of the East Coast before I start calling Isabel a fish swimmer. The facts are that there is a strong High situated off the East Coast. A weak trough is expected which could pull Isabel north if she is far enough north, but......but...alot of us argued against the models while watching Fabian and low and behold they were almost perfect.

Isabel is elongating East-to-West which may be an indication that High pressure maybe having an effect. I would not be suprised to see a more solid westward motion just when we began to doubt it.

For me, I will wait for a NOAA Gulfstream report once Isabel gets close and see how the models respond. Then we will see if Isabel goes to the fish.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11392 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:58 PM

Mike,

I would be happy...very happy to be wrong on this one.

2 other things I thought of:

Forward speed..does it speed up over the next 48 hours?

A SW movement--any at all changes the scenario.


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John C
Unregistered




Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11393 - Tue Sep 09 2003 07:59 PM

Mike,
Want some BBQ sauce with that crow


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11394 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:03 PM



This is about myself, need I say more .


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11395 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:12 PM

I think Isabel has reluctantly started to turn. Whatever is happening it looks less organized than it has in a couple of days.

Bill


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islander
Unregistered




Coming west?
      #11396 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:24 PM

As far as I can see, Isabel just started to move westward:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11397 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:27 PM

Interesting article by Gray answered some of the questions I put to HF on the forum.Then since Dr.Gray does not think the sling shot effect over the top of the ULL will not occur then the Carib is out of the woods.The ULL will close that door but will it make the path and did it provide the headroom for Isabel to travel N today.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11398 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:30 PM

Are you sure you were not baiting the hook for us Mike to discount you?

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Isabel Meets Poseidon?
      #11399 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:36 PM

Also think she's doing the west thing now.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Looks as if Isabel may be making the westerly turn.
      #11400 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:36 PM

Give this loop a few more shots with the same result I think your in Kevin.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Coming west?
      #11401 - Tue Sep 09 2003 08:43 PM

Well, looking at the last two hours of the GOES IR loop she certainly hints of going due west... now is this a trend or just a minor deviation wobble from its wnw track???? ... my guess is that this could be the long awaited west track.... and if it is, and it stays on this track for several days, it sure could make it really interesting down the road... still to early for me to say if this is gonna spin fish yet, to many unknowns, to many models dispersions, and way to much hype...

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Coming west?
      #11402 - Tue Sep 09 2003 09:35 PM

Yep, It's the real deal, last 4 to 5 frames show an almost due west movement., looks like the ULL delayed the direction change., now we'll see if she continues west or slightly WSW like some of the models were hinting at earlier

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Coming west?
      #11403 - Tue Sep 09 2003 10:04 PM

Heard on NOAA Radio today, (1610 AM for those around Palm Bay, East Coast of Central Florida), that high pressure will build in Sat/Sun. It will be in place until mid-week, then move off to the East.

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