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Watching 94L off the Mid-Atlantic for possible subtropical or even tropical transition this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nicholas) , Major: 58 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1112 (Michael) Major: 1112 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Elsa Lounge
      #113795 - Tue Jun 29 2021 09:41 PM



Once again, yet another unseasonably vigorous tropical wave is already approaching tropical cyclone status, and so despite the fact that the disturbance recently tagged Invest 97L is way out in the MDR of the Tropical Atlantic, which typically wouldn't be of much interest until later in a season, we are starting a lounge on this feature that could become another early season numbered TC as soon as overnight tonight or tomorrow.

Early model guidance suggests that the disturbance will track through the Caribbean, and this looks likely given the very stout Bermuda High. While conditions for further development may be less than ideal on approach to and just inside of the eastern Caribbean, given the unusually feisty nature of African Easterly Waves this season, it would not shock to see this become a more serious storm at some point in its cycle.

Edited by CFHC (Thu Jul 01 2021 07:14 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113796 - Wed Jun 30 2021 12:13 AM

97L increasingly looks like it has a very good shot of becoming the Atlantic's first hurricane, and possibly also first long-track hurricane, of 2021.



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scottsvb
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113797 - Wed Jun 30 2021 01:15 PM

They'll probably classify it this evening.. infact they almost have to due to the time it will take to get to the islands.. say 48hours out.

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MichaelA
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113798 - Wed Jun 30 2021 02:18 PM

Models don't look very good for West Central FL on July 5-6. I'm sure they will change as the system develops and the mid-lat systems progress. I'll be keeping my eyes on this one and be ready to prep if need be.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 20/7/4


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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #113801 - Thu Jul 01 2021 09:03 AM

Waiting for a couple of days to draw any conclusions. We know how fickle storms in the Caribbean can be..

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doug


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JMII.
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113802 - Thu Jul 01 2021 12:40 PM

These long track storms are always fickle... a small change today could, or equally could not, shift the cone radically. We have gotten so much rain these last two weeks in SFL that I would prefer Elsa not visit us. Looks pretty healthy currently but she is way down south. Don't remember many storms reaching us from such a low latitude (10N).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 97L Lounge [Re: JMII.]
      #113803 - Thu Jul 01 2021 01:53 PM

LLC just cleared 10N, now a more WNW track than previous advisory. Past hours loop shows healthy convection firing near and north of LLC and banding in the SW quadrant. Remarkable to have a strengthening tropical storm so far south in the Atlantic moving so fast.

Not hoping for a close passage to peninsular Florida, but here in coastal central Volusia County I could really use 3" or more spread out over several days. I measured only 4.14" in June (3.5" below normal), annual deficit now 7"+ for Station Number FL-VL-42 Daytona Beach Shores 1.8 SSE

Community Collaborative Florida Rain Network

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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OrlandoDan
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113804 - Thu Jul 01 2021 03:30 PM

A long way away and way south. We shall all keep a cautious eye on her.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113805 - Thu Jul 01 2021 05:29 PM

Had about 5” this week which took us to near normal for June…before that we had very little rain since April..

--------------------
doug


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OrlandoDan
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113806 - Thu Jul 01 2021 05:47 PM

Please, the experts weigh in. Why is the Euro so radically different? Changes to the model itself? Not enough input data? Etc?????

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113807 - Fri Jul 02 2021 06:00 AM

Good morning. Watching the larger satellite video this A.M. There is a stronger flow over Hispaniola than the flow to the south. Therefore I think the Euro model has the better data and the storm will exit the Caribbean over that island. We should know by this evening as it is now crossing into that area.

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113808 - Fri Jul 02 2021 11:55 AM

Don't we have the Radar Amination from Martinque Mike usually posts? Or can admin/mod post ? ty

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scottsvb
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #113809 - Fri Jul 02 2021 12:06 PM

GFS is under performing intenisty guidance.. but does show LLC racing WNW, thus keeping this a min hurricane (adjusting to the poor MB intenisty performance. Still with this going so fast.. decoupling will happen, especially by time it gets to Cuba and exitiing it. LLC could wander WNW to NW.. midelevel moisture N into Florida.. still this is just 1 run of the GFS.. will have a better idea 0z run and tomorrow.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #113813 - Fri Jul 02 2021 03:43 PM

Looks like the Euro has her going far more west than previous runs.

Edited by OrlandoDan (Fri Jul 02 2021 04:00 PM)


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JMII
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113817 - Fri Jul 02 2021 09:01 PM

It’s been trending west likely because it’s moving so fast. It’s entering an area of increased shear which should weaken it. However if it holds on and manages to stay off the islands a stronger storm might effect the FL Keys. Flip side is it struggles, gets disrupted and becomes a weak TS out in the gulf bothering nobody.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113818 - Sat Jul 03 2021 08:44 AM

Next 24 hours will tell us a lot. The speed it is moving is it’s greatest enemy and it is unstacked…if that continues it may not survive as an organized storm after interacting with the land parcels it must cross… n

--------------------
doug


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JMII
Weather Master


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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113819 - Sat Jul 03 2021 11:27 AM

As of 11AM its been downgraded to the TS and is looking ragged, even the outflow has disrupted. All the thunderstorm energy is displaced to the SE. On its current track Elsa is going to spend nearly 24 hours over Cuba cut off from the ocean. Seems like the weaker option of the forecast is looking more likely.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113820 - Sat Jul 03 2021 11:28 AM

I might disagree a bit with 'in the Gulf bothering nobody'.....West Central Florida is awash in precipitation today after a very rainy week and a half and a TS to the west of us could bring a host of flooding problems to this area. Those in flood-prone areas need to stay highly informed and vigilant even if the storm weakens significantly as it approaches. May end up not being much of a wind event, but can still cause a lot of issues for some people. Stay tuned!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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tinahdee
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UKMET track question [Re: cieldumort]
      #113821 - Sat Jul 03 2021 04:58 PM

I noticed that on the Skeetobite spaghetti model, the UKMET track deadends at the base of Cuba - does this mean anything in particular - does it mean the UKMET thinks Elsa will dissipate at that point? Or is it just an anomaly?

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: tinahdee]
      #113822 - Sat Jul 03 2021 05:28 PM

The most recent UKMET run on Elsa issued 12Z today does suggest that the cyclone falls apart prior to crossing Cuba.

The Skeetobite plot referenced might be in the process of updating the 12Z run.

Here is another view of the most recent run, which also suggests Elsa degenerates.



However, just for complete disclosure, more comprehensive maps of the UKMET 12Z run also show regeneration of some degree west of Florida, possibly coming ashore in the northwest part of the state at TD/lower-end TS.

Also worth mentioning that a number of other models' most recent runs point to degeneration prior to crossing Cuba, with some regenerating, and others not so much, if at all.


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