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News Talkback >> 2021 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
      #113800 - Wed Jun 30 2021 04:27 PM

11PM EDT 5 July Update
Elsa is back over water in the Gulf of Mexico, forecast keeps it as a Tropical storm until Landfall Wednesday morning near the west coast, close to Horseshoe beach. Parts of the coast Tampa Bay, north to the Big Bend may see 3-5 feet of storm surge in certain areas.

From the official discussion:
Some of the intensity models, such as SHIPS and some of the global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. I.e. you may wake up to a hurricane warning along parts of the west coast of Florida.

6PM EDT 3 July Update
New Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are up tonight, including the Florida Keys, as Tropical Storm Elsa narrowly misses crossing southern Haiti and looks to be spending more time over very warm water en route to Cuba.

Depending in large part on what parts of and how brief (or long) the cyclone spends over Cuba, Elsa may be stronger (or weaker) than currently anticipated when entering the Gulf of Mexico.

At present, the low-level circulation, which has been partially to mostly exposed for nearly a day now, is tucking itself back under some convection as showers and thunderstorms are building upshear, likely getting an orographic assist with from cyclone interacting with Hispaniola.

The forecast scenario remains too complex for any one model or even suite of models, but NHC seems to have a pretty good handle on Elsa, and tropical storm/hurricane preparations are in order wherever they have watches and warnings in effect.

3PM EDT 2 July Update
Elsa has continued to organize and strengthen despite a rapid forward speed and higher net effective shear, given that rapid forward motion, and as of the 2PM AST NHC update, is now an 85MPH Cat 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

With continued forward motion at nearly 30 MPH and some nearby dry air, it is unclear how long this on-and-off intensification can go on for, but suffice it to say, Hurricane Elsa's intensity is now well-above the earlier NHC forecasts, even ahead of schedule of the more bullish model runs, and so it could be best not to count on a sustained leveling off or weakening trend any time soon, and interests in the central to western Caribbean may want to begin wrapping up hurricane preparations for the likelihood of impact.

How strong Elsa is next week after land interaction in the Caribbean is also unclear, but Florida for certain should be keeping a watchful eye. Steering patterns favor at least some Florida impact, and that is the official forecast from NHC.

Full Caribbean radar loop recording is now live:
Elsa 2021 Full Caribbean Radar Loop Recording



Initial Update
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2021 has just told 2020 to hold its beer.

Advisories have begun on the potential fifth named storm of the swift start to the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season with Invest 97L. This incipient tropical cyclone being born unseasonably early in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Tropical Atlantic is far more like what we would expect to see in the heart of a season, not the very first official month.

Model guidance on FIVE is warm to very warm, and getting warmer. Interests in the eastern Caribbean and points west to northwest may want to begin paying very close attention to official guidance.

We also now have a Forecast Lounge up just for FIVE to discuss its model runs in greater detail and speculate more freely
Elsa (FIVE) Forecast Lounge



Elsewhere, we are still keeping a watchful eye on Invest 95L, which is still somewhat coherent, but struggling in the higher shear/subsident zone of the eastern Caribbean. Also of some interest is the persistent weather maker along the far western Gulf of Mexico, now analyzed with a surface "Low" in the Bay of Campeche.

5:00PM AST June 30, 2021 WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.


Elsa Event Related Links


float5latest.gif stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Elsa
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Elsa


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Elsa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Elsa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Elsa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Elsa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Elsa -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 95L Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach
Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News
Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

Edited by MikeC (Tue Jul 06 2021 12:47 PM)


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CFHCAdministrator



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Posts: 135
Loc: East Central Florida
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: cieldumort]
      #113810 - Fri Jul 02 2021 02:08 PM

Caribbean radar recording of elsa and 95l
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?636


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cieldumortModerator
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Posts: 2099
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: cieldumort]
      #113811 - Fri Jul 02 2021 03:04 PM

200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021
Quote:


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has changed the Hurricane Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to theborder with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southernborder with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman





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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: cieldumort]
      #113812 - Fri Jul 02 2021 03:16 PM

Hurricane Elsa is one of the fastest moving Storms in my recent memory. Rare to see a Storm stay stacked from top to bottom at this speed. And Elsa shot the gap in the Lesser Antilles and arrived in the Eastern Caribbean as a Category 1 Hurricane.

If you are in the Track Cone please pay extra attention to Hurricane Elsa. The Storm is a Formidable Foe at this point.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: cieldumort]
      #113814 - Fri Jul 02 2021 05:29 PM



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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: danielw]
      #113815 - Fri Jul 02 2021 05:32 PM

Latest NOAA recon stated that the 700mb center was not well defined and somewhat displaced from the surface circulation indicating that the rapid westward movement of the surface low may be outrunning the mid-level low. Once the LL circulation slows, it may become better stacked. However, shear is expected to increase as well. NHC also states that the intensity forecast has lower confidence in the longterm period as well as low confidence in track guidance in days 4 - 5. Elsa is going to require close scrutiny in the coming days. Stay alert, my friends.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 15/6/3


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: MichaelA]
      #113816 - Fri Jul 02 2021 07:37 PM

This storm is defying the norm. So fast moving but yet still staying somewhat stacked. Let's all keep a close eye on intensity, sheer, and therfore, direction.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: cieldumort]
      #113838 - Mon Jul 05 2021 12:46 PM

As challenging a system as Elsa has been, NHC has handled the track forecast very well thus far

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Entering July with new Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings [Re: cieldumort]
      #113842 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:41 PM

The models have been quite good for this system/storm. Throwing out the left and right outliers leaves a consensus track among the remaining models. The model cluster has been pretty consistent throughout the history of this storm with only a little left and right wobble.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 15/6/3


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