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Watching 94L off the Mid-Atlantic for possible subtropical or even tropical transition this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nicholas) , Major: 58 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1111 (Michael) Major: 1111 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Fred Lounge
      #113878 - Sun Aug 08 2021 01:03 PM


Image credit: Weathernerds.org


An area of low pressure presently located several hundred miles east of the Windwards and recently Invest tagged, 94L, is showing further signs of gradual organization as it approaches the eastern Caribbean islands, and so we are now starting a Forecast Lounge on this system that NHC has been tracking for a few days.

Official NHC odds of becoming a numbered Tropical Cyclone as of this entry are 30%/40% within 2D/5D, respectively.

PTC-6 has become Tropical Storm Fred. The title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 10 2021 10:52 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113879 - Sun Aug 08 2021 06:47 PM

She needs to be watched carefully. No boubt.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113881 - Mon Aug 09 2021 12:16 PM

As of about 12 ET today, Monday, 94L remains a sharp wave, but there are hints of it starting to close off. If that trend continues, PTC or TC watches and warnings will probably go up by this evening, and possibly sooner rather than later, given close proximity to land.

It is that very land that is driving the greatest uncertainty with 94L's future development potential. There could be quite a lot of it, if the model forecast tracks mostly verify. On the other hand, upper level conditions related to a solid upward MJO pulse as well as some enhancement from a passing Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave, strongly favor intensification, and it seems likely that at some point 94L will have an opening for significant intensification, perhaps even becoming a hurricane, and islands in the Caribbean, and later in the forecast period, Florida, could be impacted by a strong cyclone.

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bob3d
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113883 - Mon Aug 09 2021 12:35 PM

Since we are on 94L, that means it is the 5th "Invest" of this year. My question is since the next name to be used is going to be "Fred", which is the 6th name for this hurricane season; did we have a named storm that never was an "Invest"?

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #113884 - Mon Aug 09 2021 02:34 PM

Quote:

Since we are on 94L, that means it is the 5th "Invest" of this year. My question is since the next name to be used is going to be "Fred", which is the 6th name for this hurricane season; did we have a named storm that never was an "Invest"?




Bob,

To answer your question directly, we did not have merely one Invest so far this season that did not go on to become a named storm, we've had many, which is more or less always the case in any season.

Invest numbers run from 90 through 99, and in the Atlantic basin they are assigned the letter "L" to prevent confusion from other Invests around the world.

We have already cycled through 99 once so far this season. This is our second "94L." Invest numbers are always reused, never retired or done with during a season. As an Invest is not necessarily a Tropical Cyclone, their use is irrelevant to counting numbers of TCs/STCs in any given season, outside of things like post-season reanalysis of possible overlooked systems, etc.

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bob3d
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113885 - Mon Aug 09 2021 02:40 PM

Thank you. That explains a lot!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113886 - Mon Aug 09 2021 03:07 PM

All the models have 94L remain weak through the run, but some interesting bits still stand out.

1. GFS keeps it weak
2. Shear through the Bahamas will likely keep the system weak most of the time
3. Canadian, Euro, and HWRF all show a last minute ramp up before landfall in South Florida.

The last bit is the thing to watch, because Euro and HRWF show very little land interaction with the greater antilles. The shear does remains strong through most of the Bahamas in them though.

Big take from it is it'll have to be watched closely ALL weak, particularly for any sign of last minute intensification toward the end of the week.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113888 - Mon Aug 09 2021 06:24 PM

18z GFS moves it over Cuba, a shift south (Counter to the Euro which is more north) Gets into the Gulf and is a bit stronger there than the prior run. Landfall near Panama City Beach, FL a week from Tuesday.

18Z Icon is a bit north and now has a S. Florida Landfall, prior to this it moved through the Florida Straits. Very weak depression or storm.

The official track is in between the two extremes.

Models will not be very reliable until a solid center forms in the system.

18z HRWF is a bit south of the earlier run, but winds pu stronger Cat 1 Hurricane hit on Islamorada in the Keys midday Saturday.then rides the west coast up to Marco Island..


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Kraig
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113889 - Mon Aug 09 2021 09:25 PM

There seems to be an awful lot of dry air in the mid-levels, which may not only impact this storm but others that follow it over the next week or so....

mid level dry air model

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #113890 - Mon Aug 09 2021 10:41 PM

If they don't pull the trigger at 11PM For TD tonight, it probably will be in the morning -- if its still questionable then they will wait for recon. Bet the track shifts slightly to the right also based on the 0z TVCN consensus (or they may just keep it as is)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113891 - Tue Aug 10 2021 09:09 AM

6z GFS keeps it fairly weak and near Cuba then it clips Key West Saturday night goes into the Gulf the landfall near Destin on late Monday night as a Tropical Storm.

0Z Euro only Clips Hispaniola, moves over the Keys Saturday, then TS Landfall near Panama City Monday afternoon.

6z HMON doesn't really have a firm grip on the system, keeps it weak.

6z HWRF clips western PR and Easter DR, then starts to organize it north of Cuba, landfall downtown Miami late Saturday morning as a Cat 2 hurricane then rides up the spine and exits in the Gulf near New Port Richey.

0z CMC Weak system over Islamorada early Saturday morning, then depression near Panama City midday Tuesday.

Most models keep it weak, with the exception of HWRF.

With Recon data finally getting in, hopefully tonight's model runs will be better (midday runs won't have much of it)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113893 - Tue Aug 10 2021 02:38 PM

12z runs, GFS is weak Depression or TS into S. Florida midday Saturday after Traversing over Hispaniola. Second landfall east of Panama City on Monday morning.

12Z Euro is weak, over the Keys and near Panama City on Monday Morning, also goes over Hispaniola.

12Z HMON Goes right over Hispaniola, falls apart then regains strength to a Tropical Storm right before landfall around Key Largo early Saturday Morning, then second landfall near Alligator Point int he Panhandle Sunday Morning.

12Z HWRF Avoids Hispaniola to the north, and manages to hit Ft. Lauderdale Saturday morning as a cat 2 hurricane.

12Z CMC Tropical Storm into the Keys on Saturday morning, then Cat 1 Hurricane into Pensacola on Monday afternoon.

12Z Icon, Tropical Storm rides along the east coast of Florida starting Saturday night near Miami.

Very difficult forecast ahead, with a lot riding on land interaction with Hispaniola or not.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113894 - Tue Aug 10 2021 07:08 PM

18z models are a mixed bag, it's debatable if they were initialized well looking at San Juan radar.

However, 18Z GFS is weaker as it moves over Hispaniola and parts of Cuba before landfall in the keys Saturday night and moves the weak system up through the peninsula. If it indeed initalize too far south, it means much less time over land.

18z ICON shifts left from the earlier run and makes landfall near Homestead as a weak TS on Saturday night.

18z HWRF probably started too far south, and moves more over land in Hispaniola than the 12Z. If the positions shifts back north it will likely miss land. 18Z still makes landfall as a cat 2 in Miami on Saturday morning, the out by Tampa Bay by Sunday morning, before making approaching east of Panama City as a cat 1.

18z HMON starts out as a mess and never really recovers.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113897 - Wed Aug 11 2021 08:05 AM

The shift west is keeping the system south of Hispaniola this morning, so the models are a bit unclear until the system passes by Hispaniola. However, it is bringing some rain, but most of the convection remains to the south of the Island.

6z GFS is a little off already, expecting the system to already be over Hispaniola, but it still remains south. However, because of the interaction in the model it remains weak. Crosses the middle Keys midday saturday, then a landfall near Alligator Point Late Monday night as a Tropical Storm.

0z Euro takes it over Hispaniola a bit later today, then into southwest Florida Saturday evening fairly weak, briefly back into the Gulf before a second landfall in the Panhandle on Sunday night.

0z Canadian is similar to the Euro, except it should already be over Hispaniola now (and it's not)

6z Icon has a weak system over Key West Saturday afternoon.

6z HWRF brings Fred over Hispaniola later this afternoon, then loses it for a while, eventually forming into a hurricane approaching Destin or just east of Destin Monday morning.

6z HMON Clips Southwest Florida Saturday morning, then shows a strong TS landfall Just west of Panama City late Sunday night.







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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113898 - Wed Aug 11 2021 06:26 PM

Evening models

18z GFS rides along Cuba coastline (just offshore), bends back toward Florida. Landfall around Islamorada Saturday afternoon in the Keys, TS. Then rides inland along the coast from Marco Island to about Venice, FL, then out into the Gulf. Another TS Landfall near Panama City Tuesday morning.

18z Icon, Tropical Storm landfall near Miami Late Saturday night, rides inland until Jacksonville.

12z CMC landfall near Miami Saturday morning TS, rides along east coast of Florida to the north.

12Z Euro TS landfall near miami Saturday morning, moves into the state to the west, but never exits into the Gulf.

12Z HWRF (18z not out yet) Cat 2 hurricane landfall Miami Saturday morning. Exits Tampa Sunday morning, TS landfall Monday morning east of Alligator Point.

12Z hmon, Keys Late Friday night, TS, Cat 1 hurricane landfall, Mobile Al Monday morning.

18z HWRF - COmpletely falls apart, whatever is left goes into Louisiana late monday
18z HMON - Gets together int he Gulf then makes landfall as a TD/TS in Pensacola, FL Monday evening.



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JMII
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113900 - Thu Aug 12 2021 10:09 AM

Looks like another Elsa but staying on the N side of Cuba vs the S side thus could be more of an event for S FL.

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dgwcarib
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113901 - Thu Aug 12 2021 10:37 AM

I sure miss the hurricane blog, comment section from 2 years back that the Weather Underground allowed. Learned a lot about storms there and is was a very active page. Wish I could find a page like that again...

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JMII
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: dgwcarib]
      #113903 - Thu Aug 12 2021 03:13 PM

Dr. Masters has another blog, not sure I'm allowed to post a link to here but Google should find it. I found in the past the Cat 6 blog was mostly a group of wishcasters claiming every storm is the next Katrina and just a handful of people that actually understood the weather. I couldn't type fast enough to overcome the level on nonsense when a storm was close at hand. Things are slow here but the people are MUCH smarter.

Back to Fred - who is looking like an open wave. The core completely separated from the L. However its over warm water N of Cuba and if the shear drops its should be able to gather some steam.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113904 - Thu Aug 12 2021 08:40 PM

Fred's 8pm relocation to the east puts it back under the convection, which is a sign it might make a run for restrengthening tomorrow. It'll need to be monitored, the shear is still there, but the slower motion may give it more time in the low shear environment later.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 94L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113905 - Thu Aug 12 2021 09:37 PM

Recon's vortex data message 33 knot winds, 21.36N 75.30W puts it probably back to Tropical Storm status.

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