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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1148 (Michael) Major: 1148 (Michael)
 


News Talkback >> 2021 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Major Hurricane Ida
      #113993 - Sat Aug 28 2021 08:06 AM

7:45AM CDT 31 August 2021 Update
Hurricane Ida made landfall at 11:55AM in Port Fourchon, Louisana. Creating a massive surge, particularly along the islands, and western sides of lake Ponchartrain as well as other areas, a lot of wind damage, including very widespread power outages, and flooding rainfall even well inland.

Some of these areas, including metro New Orleans areas, may be without power and services for days, other areas may be out for weeks.

Julian formed and dissipated quickly.

5:45AM CDT 29 August 2021 Update
Recon just nailed a more targeted pass through Ida's eye and it appears pressure is now down to about 935/936mb with max winds of 150 MPH or so. Apparently still deepening heading into landfall. Now less than 10 MPH away from Cat 5 if this passes QC.
-Ciel

12:45AM CDT 29 August 2021 Update
Ida has become a still-intensifying Major Hurricane, the second Major of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and earliest forming second Major Hurricane in the basin since 2005.
-Ciel

4:45PM CDT 28 August 2021 Update
The most recent recon mission is finding that pressure is quite a bit lower than earlier today, but also that the hurricane is expanding quite a bit in size. This has resulted in the maximum sustained winds not being quite as high as they could otherwise be immediately around the center, but rather still dangerously strong over a larger area. This will result in a longer duration of damaging winds over a larger area, as opposed to a fast and furious blast as seen in smaller intense hurricanes that almost feel more like riding through a ginormous tornado but only if within a few tens of miles of exact landfall location. It will also unfortunately result in potential for even more significant storm surge, and dangerous storm surge covering a wider area.

It is not yet clear whether the expanding size vs intensifying inner core phase is continuing or ending. It could also alternate into landfall. Either way, the safe thing to do is to prepare for a very long duration of damaging and locally catastrophic wind and flooding rain event, and if near water - an expansive, long lasting, deadly storm surge.

One final note, there has been a trend this afternoon for Ida to be tracking to the right side of the forecast cone. This highlights the need for those within the entire cone to be prepared for the worst, while hoping for the best. And always, the worst of hurricane impacts can occur well away from its center.

-Ciel


10:30AM CDT 28 August 2021 Update
Hurricane Ida is strengthening, however much of the energy this morning has gone into expanding the windfield, covering a larger area with winds (And likely more momentum for storm surge). Signs are there that intensification phase is starting now, watch aircraft recon reports to see how the structure is doing. Over the next few hours an eye is likely to become visible on satellite. There is the potential for a bit of dry air intrusion, which would be a limiting factor for intensification, however, the lack of shear and very warm waters that Ida will be traveling over will probably keep it on the intensification track, and the hurricane center still forecasts a category 4 storm to happen between the two 11AM forecast points.

The current forecast makes landfall as a category 3 or 4 hurricane in Terrebonne Parish, going between Houma and Morgan CIty, and very near or over Baton Rouge. Great amounts of onshear surge will be at and just to the right of landfall, with 10-15 feet possible in areas between Morgan City and the mouth of the Mississippi, however lower, but in some cases significant--especially closer to Ida, surge impacts could be felt all the way to the western Panhandle of Florida.. Extremely heavy rainfall, and wind as well. Power outages will likely be widespread. After landfall, remnants will likely move toward the Tennessee Valley

Today is the last full preparation day for those in the Hurricane Warning area. For the best information for your local area consult local media and officials, an the area National Weather Service office.

Original Update
Hurricane Ida is beginning to strengthen this morning, slowed by traveling over Cuba, now with 85mph winds, the intensification phase is forecast to begin later today and overnight. There is the potential for a bit of dry air intrusion, which would be a limiting factor for intensification, however, the lack of shear and very warm waters that Ida will be traveling over will probably keep it on the intensification track. So far the intensity forecast from yesterday has been correct.

The current forecast makes landfall as a category 4 hurricane in Terrebonne Parish, going between Houma and Morgan CIty, and very near or over Baton Rouge. Great amounts of onshear surge will be at and just to the right of landfall, with 10-15 feet possible in areas between Morgan City and the mouth of the Mississippi, however lower, but in some cases significant--especially closer to Ida, surge impacts could be felt all the way to the western Panhandle of Florida.. Extremely heavy rainfall, and wind as well. Power outages will likely be widespread. After landfall, remnants will likely move toward the Tennessee Valley

Today is the last full preparation day for those in the Hurricane Warning area. For the best information for your local area consult local media and officials, an the area National Weather Service office.

Tropical Depression Ten has formed from 98L in the Central Atlantic, likely no threat to land.


Ida Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ida
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX
Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage Louisiana power outage map

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

>

    • Lake Charles, LA Area Media and Information
  • kplctv 7 NBC Lake Charles

    Fox 29 Lake Charles

    American Press Newspaper Lake Charles

    Louisiana Information

    Govt/Official Info:

    Louisiana Emergency Management

    Mississippi Emergency Management

    Alabama Emergency Management

    Louisiana Dept. of Transportation - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc.

    Mississippi - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc

    Alabama Road Conditions and Traffic Cameras


    Media Newspapers/TV/Radio:

    Nola.com New Orleans Times-Picayune

    WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)

    ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)

    WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)

    Fox 8 (New Orleans)

    WTIX 690 News Radio

    WWL 870 News Radio

    WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate

    WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola

    WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile


    Kate Event Related Links


    float10latest.gif stormplotthumb_10.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

    [https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Kate
    GOES Floater
    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Kate


    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Kate (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Kate (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of Kate

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Kate
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Kate -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View


    Julian Event Related Links


    float11latest.gif stormplotthumb_11.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

    [https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Julian
    GOES Floater
    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Julian


    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Julian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Julian (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of Julian

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Julian
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Julian -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View


    Larry Event Related Links


    float12latest.gif stormplotthumb_12.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

    [https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Larry
    GOES Floater
    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Larry


    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Larry (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Larry (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of Larry

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Larry
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on Larry -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View


    Invest 91 Event Related Links


    float13latest.gif stormplotthumb_13.gif

    SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

    [https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
    GOES Floater
    Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


    Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
    Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

    Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

    Other Model Charts from Clark

    Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
    More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
    NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
    COD Atlantic Satellite View



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    MikeCAdministrator
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    Posts: 4426
    Loc: Orlando, FL
    Re: Hurricane Ida in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
          #113994 - Sat Aug 28 2021 02:06 PM

    With the 2pm position it is east of the forecast track, likely bringing more impacts to New Orleans.

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    MikeCAdministrator
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    Re: Hurricane Ida in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
          #113998 - Sun Aug 29 2021 02:26 AM

    Recent recon reports suggest Ida may be a Category 4 hurricane soon.

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    cieldumortModerator
    Moderator


    Reged: Mon
    Posts: 2112
    Loc: Austin, Tx
    Re: Hurricane Ida in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
          #113999 - Sun Aug 29 2021 02:29 AM

    It appears Ida may have just had a 10mb or so drop between one recon pass and the very next (same mission). This is phenomenally rapid intensification, if verified. As Mike notes, this leg also went through the Right Front Quadrant (RFQ) and the wind speeds found could support an upgrade to Cat 4 shortly.

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    cieldumortModerator
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    Re: Hurricane Ida in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
          #114000 - Sun Aug 29 2021 02:44 AM



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    BloodstarModerator
    Moderator


    Reged: Mon
    Posts: 459
    Loc: Georgia Tech
    Re: Hurricane Ida in the Gulf [Re: cieldumort]
          #114001 - Sun Aug 29 2021 03:39 AM

    How have the models performed so far this season? Any standouts?

    --------------------
    M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
    U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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    Captnhook
    Registered User


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    Re: Hurricane Ida in the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
          #114002 - Sun Aug 29 2021 04:12 AM

    Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
    200 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

    ...MAJOR HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
    ...NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
    Doppler weather radars indicate that Hurricane Ida has continued to
    rapidly intensify this Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are
    now estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h). This makes Ida a category 4
    hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

    Ida's central pressure has fallen 6 millibars during the past hour.


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    DaViking
    Verified CFHC User


    Reged: Tue
    Posts: 23
    Loc: Crystal River, FL
    Re: Major Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
          #114003 - Sun Aug 29 2021 10:13 AM

    Ooof! From NOAA3 that has been in and out of the eye all morning. dropsonde #30 140kts = 161 mph.



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