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The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 134 (Nicholas) , Major: 149 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1203 (Michael) Major: 1203 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Nicholas Lounge
      #114025 - Fri Sep 10 2021 11:43 AM



An area of disturbed weather associated with the northern portion of a tropical wave that extends from the Caribbean into the eastern Pacific is being monitored by NHC for potential development over the weekend.

Models have not been exactly bullish on this feature. Understandably, as the region is under high shear, and even more challenging, the northwestern Gulf is very dry. However, by Sunday this shear is forecast to relax, with winds shifting and drawing moist air both northward and upward.

At the time of this Lounge being opened, NHC odds are 40%/70% within 2D/5D, respectively. The most obvious outcome would be for a soaking Tropical Depression or Storm. However, the topography of this part of the Gulf is very conducive for helping ramp up systems that all else being equal have a chance of being stronger (e.g. Humberto), and there is a chance all the models are underestimating this. That would be all the models recently, as a few of the older runs from several days ago actually showed such an outcome.

Forecast tracks take the system into eastern Mexico or south Texas, with a few riding it up the coast all the way to Louisiana, others inland over Texas. It's probably too early to pay much attention to any potential exact location.

This disturbance has been Invest tagged, 94L, and the title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 12 2021 11:07 AM)


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Re: 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114027 - Sat Sep 11 2021 03:19 AM

What is now an Invest tagged disturbance over Central America and the Yucatan, 94L, is about to cross into the western Gulf of Mexico, where conditions for development gradually turn less unfavorable over the weekend, and may turn outright favorable by early next week.

Models that had initially been perky on now 94L's odds but turned cool, perked back up with the 18Z runs - with several of the deterministic runs along with many of their individual members even pointing towards risk of a significant Tropical Storm and maybe a hurricane running up or into the Texas coast by the middle of next week - only to cool again with the 0z suite. This might take until there really is a more obvious feature for these models to hang their hats on to get sorted out. At present, 94L is a globular bulge of bubbling globules amidst an atmospheric sea of shear and nearby dry air.

Some 0z runs and a few of their ensembles worth noting:

GFS: 998mb Tropical Storm while southeast of Brownsville, TX Monday night, heading NNE riding offshore until landfalling in vicinity of Houston as a 1005mb TD very late Tuesday night.
GFS #1: Seems to want to take an intensifying Tropical Storm inland near Houston Monday morning.

CMC: Trof that attempts to become a TD but appears to run out of time and water when finally moving inland well south of Brownsville, TX Monday afternoon.

UKMET: Keeps 94L a hearty wave that never as much as attempts to become a TD. Moves inland over Mexico in the southwest GOM.

ECMWF: "Landfall" south of Brownsville, TX Monday morning as a sloppy TD or good looking trof, take your pick.
ECMWF #2 : Appears to make a landfall in vicinity of Brownsville, TX Monday morning as a high-end TS or maybe Cat 1(?), tracks NW holding its own all the way into San Antonio Monday night/Tues predawn. This looks to be the "I want to go down in history like Hermine" ensemble run.

Overall, models and their ensembles indicate a risk of a system that lingers, possibly riding up along the Texas coast or just inland, or remains so weak that it pushes into Mexico and/or deep S TX only to feed copious rains for days in the region, but no strong hurricane signal from this batch. Just water, water, water on top of already saturated ground.


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Re: 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114028 - Sat Sep 11 2021 02:45 PM



Several areas of weak low to mid level rotation within the broad trof being watched for development, with three being most prominent:

1. The "center" of 94L as being tracked by NHC, just now coming off the southwesternmost portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southernmost region of the Bay of Campeche.

2. A region just south of NHC's 94L location that could go on to become a tropical cyclone in the East Pac, but could still yet be drawn up into the Gulf of Mexico side itself, and

3. A northern lobe presently over northwest Yucatan that is being stretched out and could end up absorbed by the larger cyclonic flow of the expansive trof itself.

The most likely candidate vorticity for development in the Gulf of Mexico is certainly the feature being tracked by NHC as the 'center' of '94L', but the region is still messy, not ideal for imminent development, and remains in play. Just where things really start to consolidate, assuming they do, will likely have a large influence on future track and intensity.

NHC odds within 5 Days now at 90%


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 94L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114030 - Sun Sep 12 2021 06:36 AM

Invest 94L has increased its organization overnight and appears to be well on its way to becoming the next named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Satellite and surface obs trends suggest that it could end up at least somewhat of a larger system than many models have been forecasting, potentially then slower to hurricane - assuming it does - but also then be a little more resilient to the shear that is likely to impact in the northwestern Gulf mid to late next week, if taking that model favored track.

Recon is heading in today. This will be invaluable data.

The next name on the list in the Atlantic basin is Nicholas. Interests from Tampico, MX to New Orleans, LA and points inland may want to begin tracking 94L closely.

--------------------
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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Nicholas Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114033 - Sun Sep 12 2021 11:51 PM

Nicholas potentially just blew the 7PM NHC issued forecast time plots with a dramatic center reformation downshear into the deeper convection.

Recon now finding winds that could soon support 50 KTS .... circulation may already be showing up on Brownsville, TX radar. Trend for jumping into deeper, downshear convection more likely than not to continue in any subsequent decouplings.

In this scenario, track may again be adjusted to the right and trend stronger still.




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Re: Nicholas Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114037 - Tue Sep 14 2021 02:01 PM

Today's 12Z runs of the GFS ensembles are suggesting a very sticky, slow moving Nicholas likely to bring more precip to east Texas and Louisiana for the remainder of this week and possibly even into the weekend, with a real chance that Nicholas briefly tracks back over the northern Gulf.



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