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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)

Archives 2020s >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
Peter Lounge
      #114034 - Mon Sep 13 2021 09:31 AM

A tropical wave has rolled off off the west coast of Africa around Guinea and Sierra Leone, placing it in a somewhat more favorable location for a potential long track across the Tropical Atlantic, rather than recurving and/or running into stable air early, as waves that roll off further north often do.

This feature has just been Invest tagged, 95L, and given the strong model support for development we are starting a Lounge on it now.

There will be a lot of time to watch this one. NHC development odds presently 80% within 5 days with a track generally west.

In the image below 95L is circled in red. To its northwest you can just make out Invest 93L, or what remains of it, after running into drier, more stable air.

Image credit:

Invest 95L became a Tropical Cyclone on the 18th of Sep and Tropical Storm Peter overnight. The title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 19 2021 04:15 AM)

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 95L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114039 - Sat Sep 18 2021 09:10 AM

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