IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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GFS has a system in the western Caribbean during the 2nd week in October, drifting slowly north while intensifying, then stalling over western Cuba at run's end:
October climatology backs this up. Florida and northeast Gulf coast will need to monitor the region as the flurry of Atlantic activity subsides.
- The feature the has been attempting to resolve over several weeks of runs and alluded to in the original and subsequent entries by IsoFlame has been Invest tagged, 92L, and is a weak low pressure area presently just off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, moving northeastward at about 5 MPH. The title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 07 2021 10:23 AM)
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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Yes, something to watch for sure,. The 0Z run last night was further east over eastern Cuba and then the central Bahamas but was moving at a fast pace.
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2021 forecast 18-10-5; 18-7-4 as of 9/26
South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Further northeast, faster and weaker:
Starting around the 6th, Florida's east coast could be in for a week of strong onshore flow given the increasing gradient between a high pressure ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic states and low pressure in the Bahamas. Coastal erosion/flooding around the time of high tides may be a good possibility due to the lengthy easterly fetch combined with a period of King tides Oct 4-13.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 196
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Looks like whatever forms in the northern Bahamas will take on baroclinic characteristics, never closing off as it ejects northward:
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Above Phase for 92L initialized Oct 9 12Z
The most recent Phase Space run out of the model forecasts 92L to continue organizing in an increasingly marginally tropical fashion, heading almost to or just barely inland and deepening the most right along the Carolina coasts, before heading back out to sea and gradually giving up its more tropical characteristics.
In summary, this strongly suggests that 92L could get a little frisky over the weekend into early next week right along the coast.
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