Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 126 (Nicholas) , Major: 141 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1195 (Michael) Major: 1195 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
92L Lounge
      #114049 - Sun Sep 26 2021 09:52 AM

GFS has a system in the western Caribbean during the 2nd week in October, drifting slowly north while intensifying, then stalling over western Cuba at run's end:



October climatology backs this up. Florida and northeast Gulf coast will need to monitor the region as the flurry of Atlantic activity subsides.


- The feature the GFS has been attempting to resolve over several weeks of runs and alluded to in the original and subsequent entries by IsoFlame has been Invest tagged, 92L, and is a weak low pressure area presently just off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, moving northeastward at about 5 MPH. The title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Oct 07 2021 10:23 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 54
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: GFS suggesting spin up in western Caribbean in October [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114050 - Sun Sep 26 2021 11:07 AM

Yes, something to watch for sure,. The 0Z GFS run last night was further east over eastern Cuba and then the central Bahamas but was moving at a fast pace.

--------------------
2021 forecast 18-10-5; 18-7-4 as of 9/26

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: GFS suggesting spin up in western Caribbean in October [Re: Kraig]
      #114051 - Mon Sep 27 2021 10:22 AM

Further northeast, faster and weaker:

Starting around the 6th, Florida's east coast could be in for a week of strong onshore flow given the increasing gradient between a high pressure ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic states and low pressure in the Bahamas. Coastal erosion/flooding around the time of high tides may be a good possibility due to the lengthy easterly fetch combined with a period of King tides Oct 4-13.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: GFS suggesting spin up in western Caribbean in October [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114053 - Thu Sep 30 2021 12:48 PM

Looks like whatever forms in the northern Bahamas will take on baroclinic characteristics, never closing off as it ejects northward:


--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 92L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114056 - Sat Oct 09 2021 03:21 PM


Above GFS Phase for 92L initialized Oct 9 12Z

The most recent Phase Space run out of the GFS model forecasts 92L to continue organizing in an increasingly marginally tropical fashion, heading almost to or just barely inland and deepening the most right along the Carolina coasts, before heading back out to sea and gradually giving up its more tropical characteristics.

In summary, this strongly suggests that 92L could get a little frisky over the weekend into early next week right along the coast.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 35 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 3029

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center