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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Western Caribbean system just before Halloween?
      #114060 - Tue Oct 12 2021 02:55 PM

GFS continues to suggest gradual development of a system in the western Caribbean Sea, drifting north by the end of October:

SST's in this climo favored area are very supportive, and it doesn't look like there will be any strong cold fronts to scour out moisture over the eastern GOMEX and Florida peninsula.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Western Caribbean system just before Halloween? [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114061 - Wed Oct 13 2021 10:58 AM

Latest run has strong high pressure building over the SE US and GOMEX behind a cold front shunting a weak low into central America before it ever gets going:


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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Western Caribbean system just before Halloween? [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114062 - Wed Oct 13 2021 11:12 AM

The massive 1034mb ridge then stays anchored for several days::

If this scenario sets up, the strong pressure gradient could lead to a prolonged period of onshore flow off the Atlantic and coastal erosion along Florida's east coast about the same time as the full moon and king tides.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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