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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


News Talkback >> 2021 News Talkbacks

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cieldumortModerator
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September Systems Mostly Spinning Fish for Now
      #114041 - Mon Sep 20 2021 01:07 PM

8:30 PM EDT 25 September 2021 Update
Sam is now possibly a Cat 5 - awaiting review and quality control at NHC which could come with a special update - Either way, Sam is a very rare breed of hurricane. With Sam, there are now two known high-end Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricanes to form during late September or later in any part of the Atlantic east of the Caribbean; the only other known example being Lorenzo. h/t Sam Lillo

11:30 AM EDT 23 September 2021 Update
TD 18 is now Tropical Storm Sam and Odette has better than even odds of having advisories restarted today or tomorrow. But even with this additional activity, the fishing continues, for now.


8:30 AM EDT 22 September 2021 Update
Peter and Rose are depressions, and both remaining out to sea. Peter heading north and eventually northeast, and rose looping back.

The other areas include, Odette's remnants in the north Atlantic which has a 50% chance to develop.

And 98L, which is the most potential for impacts, with a 90% chance to develop into a storm, the next name on the list is Sam. This has more mixed model future, with it diverging after the typical model run length of 5 days in the longer range model runs. Right now, it's likely to be another system that stays out to sea, in the very active fish soup that has been late September, but this may be the first one of the new series that could buck the trend--but this is still fairly unlikely--, so it'll have to be monitored by the Eastern Caribbean islands into later next week to see what happens. More should be known by the end of the weekend for them.

Original Update

Steering currents have been generally deflective of systems that would otherwise be approaching the Caribbean and/or US lately, and this trend continues heading into the new week. Some of the longer range models suggest that this will not last and of course that is also common sense this time of year. We will be watching.

Closest to home, Tropical Storm Peter remains very sheared as he is also being directed north of the Leeward Islands and is expected to be turned north or even north-northeast by mid-week, thus also largely missing the Bahamas. Bermuda may want to watch later this week, however.

Way out in the eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm Rose is also battling shear and increasingly struggling with dry air. As NHC points out, this is a thorny predicament for the fish spinner. There is an outside chance Rose tracks more west than forecast, but most models indicate a northerly recurve way out at sea by mid-week.

The remnants of Odette are being watched for any signs of redevelopment in the north Atlantic when about halfway between Newfoundland and the Azores mid-week. Low 30% odds, but interesting.

Newly Invest tagged 98L is probably the most likely candidate worth keeping an eye on for any real chance of sneaking in towards more western Atlantic land, but this is a very long way off still with plenty of time to watch. Sam Forecast Lounge

Lacking an unexpected home-grown disturbance, with the possible exception of Peter impacting Bermuda, it looks like fish spinners for a while.


Odette Event Related Links


float15latest.gif stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=15 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Odette
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Odette


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Odette (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Odette (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Odette

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Odette
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Odette -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Peter Event Related Links


float16latest.gif stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=16 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Peter
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Peter


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Peter (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Peter (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Peter

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Peter
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Peter -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Rose Event Related Links


float17latest.gif stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Rose
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Rose


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Rose (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Rose (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Rose

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Rose
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Rose -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Sam Event Related Links


float18latest.gif stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=18 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Sam
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Sam


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Sam (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Sam (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Sam

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Sam
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Sam -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Teresa Event Related Links


float19latest.gif stormplotthumb_19.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=19 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Teresa
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Teresa


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Teresa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Teresa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Teresa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Teresa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Teresa -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Victor Event Related Links


float20latest.gif stormplotthumb_20.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=20 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Victor
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Victor


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Victor (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Victor (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Victor

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Victor
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Victor -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 91L Event Related Links


float21latest.gif stormplotthumb_21.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2021&storm=21 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 91L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View




Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 29 2021 11:18 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: September Systems Mostly Spinning Fish for Now [Re: cieldumort]
      #114046 - Thu Sep 23 2021 01:06 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: September Systems Mostly Spinning Fish for Now [Re: cieldumort]
      #114047 - Thu Sep 23 2021 07:05 PM



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JackFarrell
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Re: September Systems Mostly Spinning Fish for Now [Re: cieldumort]
      #114063 - Thu Oct 14 2021 05:32 PM

Hi! But it's not dangerous, is it?

Edited by JackFarrell (Fri Oct 15 2021 11:38 AM)


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