A broad area of low pressure forming in the southeastern Caribbean with strong and steady model support for development is now being tracked as an Invest, 95L, and we are starting a lounge on this feature.
NHC development odds within 5 days presently up to 70% and this could be conservative.
More details to come.
Please note: Agencies had initially erroneously tagged this disturbance "96L" but have since corrected it (95L) nd the title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel
Model runs are pretty much inconclusive this early. CMC takes it on a similar track as Ian bringing it to western Cuba or the Yucatan Straights. ECMWF takes it through the middle of the Caribbean. GFS doesn’t have a handle on it, and the NAVGEM runs it up East of the Bahamas. It’s certainly something to keep updated on.
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