8am NHC update now 60% formation chance in 7 days. Some modeling suggests TD late in the weekend, then TS Emily next week tracking WNW to NW/N passing well east of Bermuda in early August, possibly briefly becoming a hurricane (like Don) at a northerly latitude due to the historic/anomalously warm Atlantic.
If the western extension of the Atlantic ridge (which has been consistently weak this season) remains stronger than models forecast and the system doesn't initially strengthen much, it should stay on the WNW course longer, bringing it closer to Bermuda later next week. Too early to put much stock into speculation until if forms..
Some decent signals that things will change later next week are showing up, Euro, Canadian GEM, and the Icon models are all showing MDR development next week (18th-20th), although the Euro turns it north toward the ridge. The GFS is very silent, however, so it's not a full consensus, but it's looking like the climatological start of the peak (August 20th) is when things will begin to light up this year.
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